Severe WX May 4th-May 6th, 2022 Threat

[Taylor Campbell]

Hyper active severe weather period continues for May.

 

[Brice Wood]

May need to be expanded, May 8 and 9th have me worried

 

[Taylor Campbell]

May need to be expanded, May 8 and 9th have me worried

We will need new threads.

 

[KevinH]

Hyper active severe weather period continues for May.

Why do you say that? What have you been seeing exactly, and for what location(s)?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The significant severe weather risk with this system doesn’t end in the Plains. Widespread significant severe weather this period all the way to the east coast.

 

[Brice Wood]

Big 30% risk right along the Mississippi River, including Memphis, Little Rock, Jonesboro, and others.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[tornado examiner]

my goodness how many moderate risks have been issued this year so far?

 

[tornado examiner]

compared to last year this is nuts.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

my goodness how many moderate risks have been issued this year so far?

Can we slip in a high risk day for once. Time will tell … day 4 threat has legs for sure

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

12z models starting really get concerning for Thursday threat . Gfs pushing cape values into west Kentucky . 60 knots least shear .this threat looks to be the biggest threat of the week . Look for the 30 percent to get even expanded a bit more in morning outlook

 

[JBishopwx]

7 Moderate Risk Days. Surprise @JPWX haven't beaten me to it

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There are several unwelcoming top analog matches on CIPS. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday from the Plains to the East Coast need to be on high alert.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

There are several unwelcoming top analog matches on CIPS. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday from the Plains to the East Coast need to be on high alert.

Definitely has a high ceiling…

 

[Brice Wood]

Definitely has a high ceiling…

Especially Thursday, huge enhanced risk.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Especially Thursday, huge enhanced risk.

One issue seeing , winds look be more veered Thursday …. Lower level jet strengthening that evening will increase the wind threat for sure …

 

[Brice Wood]

One issue seeing , winds look be more veered Thursday …. Lower level jet strengthening that evening will increase the wind threat for sure …

So this is gonna be more of a wind-driven event than a tornado event?

 

[OHWX97]

So this is gonna be more of a wind-driven event than a tornado event?

I'd say so. Tornadoes are still possible, but veering in the low levels will definitely support more of a straight line wind threat.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

So this is gonna be more of a wind-driven event than a tornado event?

Look for the cells that start out firing first have chance get out become super cells before line segments and bowing in the line take over. But it’s still early for sure thing . Nam getting into range showing a more violent setup. Which is concerning . Wanting show a double stacked low , which would back the winds more ….

 

[Clancy]

CIPS showing a potential threat for GA during the day Friday. NAM has a line of storms coming through the state during the later afternoon.