Brice Wood
Member
Not necessarily, I think all the models were forecasting a big outbreak for 5/20/19 but nothing occurred.if its consistently showing that....does it mean its more likely for that to be what happens?
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: this_feature_currently_requires_accessing_site_using_safari
Not necessarily, I think all the models were forecasting a big outbreak for 5/20/19 but nothing occurred.if its consistently showing that....does it mean its more likely for that to be what happens?
Yes, but nothing is ever 100% certain in the world of weather. It’s entirely possible that this event busts like Monday due to some unexpected factor or it verifies/overperforms.if its consistently showing that....does it mean its more likely for that to be what happens?
Yeah, it does look quite thin. I've seen the sun shining in southern Oklahoma earlier.most of that appears to be quite thin doesnt it? and its starting to clear out a little bit...
That's a forecast hodo though, and it's very contaminated. I'm very interested in the 21Z OUN sounding, if it manages to stay mostly rain free.Nice hodograph west of Snyder, OK.
View attachment 13832
I'm not sure there is much of a cap. Mesoanalysis gridded soundings (those and the hodographs are an awesome new feature) and HRRR 00-01 hr soundings don't show much of a cap at all, and taking the 18z OUN sounding and modifying it for temperatures and dewpoints south of the warm front in southern Oklahoma removes any capping and any frontal inversions that had been in place. I think it's the meager low-level lapse rates you've touched on (which are getting closer to being adequate, they need to be in the 6's) combined with very weak large scale ascent so far... with very little in the way of mid-level height falls, and if anything, shortwave ridging and slight height rises before now. It's beginning to look like things are trying though, but we'll see. Like has been mentioned in the thread already, there are some mechanic similarities to 5/20/19, including these particular potential failure modes.From the looks of it, the warm front has stalled around the Red River valley, and the cap is hanging in there. However, there's still a few hours left or so for things to come together (assuming they'll actually be able to do so at all...).