Brice Wood
Member
Not necessarily, I think all the models were forecasting a big outbreak for 5/20/19 but nothing occurred.
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Severe WX May 4th-May 6th, 2022 Threat
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
tornado examiner
Member
ah yes that....one of the most impressive busts in modern history...
SouthFLwx
Member
Yes, but nothing is ever 100% certain in the world of weather. It’s entirely possible that this event busts like Monday due to some unexpected factor or it verifies/overperforms.
Brice Wood
Member
3 tornado watches over a big area of Texas and Oklahoma including OKC
tornado examiner
Member
most of that appears to be quite thin doesnt it? and its starting to clear out a little bit...
TornadoFan
Member
Yeah, it does look quite thin. I've seen the sun shining in southern Oklahoma earlier.
TornadoFan
Member
Right now in Ardmore, it's 81 degrees with a dewpoint of 70.
xJownage
Member
I'm not too concerned about clearing. Remember that instability can advect in from a distance. Note that we already have approached 2000-3000 SBCAPE in the southern half of OK.
TornadoFan
Member
Nice hodograph west of Snyder, OK.
xJownage
Member
That's a forecast hodo though, and it's very contaminated. I'm very interested in the 21Z OUN sounding, if it manages to stay mostly rain free.
xJownage
Member
Not sure if any of you care about Nadocast, but it's with me on really liking the warm front. I was worried about the lapse rates but it seems like it should be easily overcome. As long as the 21Z OUN comes in uncapped or close to uncapped, I think the WF is a go.
TornadoFan
Member
So far, things have been rather slow. Storms on the Texas Panhandle are crossing the WF and dying not long after they form; meanwhile, low-level lapse rates and forcing continue to be anemic over much of OK. There are, however, some severe storms forming around Midland and Lubbock, so we'll have to watch those in order to see what they end up doing (at least for now, anyway...).
Shakespeare 2016
Member
I get really lost when trying to understand this. Could you tell me what this means as far as CAPE, SRH, and SHEAR etc.Thank you!
TornadoFan
Member
Looks like we have lift off near Ardmore.
From the looks of it, the warm front has stalled around the Red River valley, and the cap is hanging in there. However, there's still a few hours left or so for things to come together (assuming they'll actually be able to do so at all...).
TornadoFan
Member
Storm near Roaring Springs, TX is already up to 54,000 feet and heading towards a boundary south of Childress.
I'm not sure there is much of a cap. Mesoanalysis gridded soundings (those and the hodographs are an awesome new feature) and HRRR 00-01 hr soundings don't show much of a cap at all, and taking the 18z OUN sounding and modifying it for temperatures and dewpoints south of the warm front in southern Oklahoma removes any capping and any frontal inversions that had been in place. I think it's the meager low-level lapse rates you've touched on (which are getting closer to being adequate, they need to be in the 6's) combined with very weak large scale ascent so far... with very little in the way of mid-level height falls, and if anything, shortwave ridging and slight height rises before now. It's beginning to look like things are trying though, but we'll see. Like has been mentioned in the thread already, there are some mechanic similarities to 5/20/19, including these particular potential failure modes.