Severe WX May 4th-May 6th, 2022 Threat

[CheeselandSkies]

It's weird, on my GR Level 3 for some NEXRAD sites I get scan updates every 2-3 (or even 1) minutes, and others (including, apparently, KSHV) only every 6-7. Annoying.

 

[JBishopwx]

Same way with WSV3. Guess it's whatever mode the NWS has it in.

 

[CSimonds]

Is it my imagination or does that cell NW of Clarksdale, MS bear watching??

 

[tornado examiner]

im of the opinion that the lockett tornado was probably a very violent tornado............over open fields doing jack all to prove its power...im still waiting to see damage out of the places it was strongest on radar. but if it didnt hit anything at peak intensity it'll probably max out at a high end EF2 rating...from what ive seen.

 

[Deb059]

Storms are starting to fire on the dryline here in Texas and here I am stuck in the hospital with my foot bandaged up and I can't run ha ha ha ha. I am an interior room in case the impossible happens Good news is the doctor said she took care of everything with my infection and if I'll be really careful I can be up and around again in three to four weeks but more importantly I can be back home in a couple of days in my armchair to chase the storms around with you guys. I'm really surprised that we are in the tornado risk because that is like I said before Tornado risk is rare in this part of Central Texas so this system must have some punch to it. I would be really careful if you were north or east of Central Texas.

BTW May 4th was the 100th anniversary of the Austin Twin tornadoes, one of the few strong tornadoes have struck this area outside of Jerrell of course which was quite a bit north of downtown.

May 22 Anniversary Tornadoes

Hope you get to come home soon. Being home is Better than being in hospital.

 

[Clancy]

FFC's updated AFD from 3 PM EDT.

Main forecast concern through the short term remains potent
convection potential ahead of frontal boundary as it moves
through the state.

The SPC has now upgraded the Day 2 outlook to include an Enhanced
Risk of Severe Storms for Friday. Models are in general agreement
with showing brief/light rain possible early morning, with the
main line of storms moving into northwest Georgia by midmorning.
Despite the early start, sufficient surface heating ahead of the
boundary will allow for increased destabilization. HREF guidance
shows finger of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE spreading into west central
Georgia by 12 PM/16 UTC, along with 100-200 m2/s2 SRH and 40-50kt
850 jet over the CWA. This environment will promote supercells or
bowing QLCS with concerns of damaging winds and hail possible up
to 1". SPC has also included a 10% tornado risk for a large
portion of western/central Georgia, including portions of the
south Metro Atlanta and Columbus areas.

The main convection line looks to move through the metro Atlanta
area by 18-19 UTC (2-3PM), and move through the Macon area by 21
UTC (5PM). Clearing/improvement is expected behind the line, but
wrap around moisture could keep some light returns and enhanced
cloud cover over the area, particularly over north Georgia, into
Saturday. Winds will remain gusty into the evening hours.

Caveat with this event - should convection move faster
than expected, destabilization may be limited with lack of
heating, effectively cutting off portions of the state from the
severe threat. While increasing confidence supports the Enhanced
Risk, this caveat is still a real possibility.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Rotation on east Texas tornado seems to have weakened somewhat, but still looks like a weak TDS northwest of Beckville.

 

[tornado examiner]

i dont know what to make of some of this.

 

[tornado examiner]

oh wait nevermind i know exactly what to make of this. it was violent lol.

 

[tornado examiner]

significant scouring noted. sadly scouring isnt a DI....

 

[CheeselandSkies]

STILL a TDS north of Beckville about to cross TX-149...this is a long-track tornado.

 

[W4TVS]

It's weird, on my GR Level 3 for some NEXRAD sites I get scan updates every 2-3 (or even 1) minutes, and others (including, apparently, KSHV) only every 6-7. Annoying.

The timing change comes into play when they are on SAILS mode. It eleminates the upper level scans, so they get more frequent updates when things are changing quickly....

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The timing change comes into play when they are on SAILS mode. It eleminates the upper level scans, so they get more frequent updates when things are changing quickly....

Well, it seems certain offices routinely forget to change it during tornado events...

 

[W4TVS]

Well, it seems certain offices routinely forget to change it during tornado events...

Yep !!

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Another tornado on the ground.

 

[OHWX97]

Another tornado on the ground.

Yep. I just noticed that TDS north of Mount Enterprise, TX.

 

[tornado examiner]

my goodness it seems like most rotations are producing tornadoes this year

 

[xJownage]

It's weird, on my GR Level 3 for some NEXRAD sites I get scan updates every 2-3 (or even 1) minutes, and others (including, apparently, KSHV) only every 6-7. Annoying.

Same way with WSV3. Guess it's whatever mode the NWS has it in.

NEXRAD radars have a mode called SAILS (Supplemental Adaptive Intra-Volume Low-Level Scan). You can actually see which SAILS mode the radar is in on your GR software in the bottom center/right (iirc, away from PC right now). Basically, it adds low level volume scans during a radar scan loop.

https://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/PublicDocs/NewTechnology/SAILS_DQ_Presentation_Nov_2012.pdf

This is a bit old, but explains the general concept. up to 3 volume scans can be added for 0.5 up to tilt 3 iirc, allowing lowest tilt scans about every 90 seconds.

 

[tornado examiner]

so the lockett tornado was probably one of the strongest of the year so far. thankfully for citizens it didnt do too much extreme property damage but unfortunate for study and an accurate rating....very interesting tornado with a unique radar presentation and some very significant rural damage.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Winds strengthening on storm near Shreveport. A severe thunderstorm warning is now issued.