Severe WX May 4th-May 6th, 2022 Threat (1 Viewer)

Equus

Member
Messages
2,864
Reaction score
2,308
Location
Saragossa, AL
Surprisingly nasty burst of wind from the complex moving through west AL, lots of close lightning as well
 

Taylor Campbell

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,197
Reaction score
606
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
10% tornado risk extended in Alabama and Georgia. Also, added 10% tornado risk in an area along the VA/NC border.

DBD7716F-DFB0-4E12-B43C-86EC7922FDFE.png
 

Equus

Member
Messages
2,864
Reaction score
2,308
Location
Saragossa, AL
On the one hand I'm a little surprised tor risk is that high down south with lingering storm mode questions and at least some low level veering (not that this always hurts events here) but on the other hand every major QLCS/mixed mode event lately has spammed like a dozen tornadoes in central/south AL so it'll probably verify
 

Clancy

Member
Messages
566
Reaction score
409
Location
Atlanta, Georgia
Latest update to the SPC's D1 removes much of Central AL from the ENH. Also notes CAMs having trouble keeping up with the decaying QLCS and its atmospheric implications over parts of MS/AL. Threat appears to remain the same for Eastern AL and GA up into the Carolinas and Virginia.

A large area of severe-thunderstorm potential exists, though more
uncertain now on the southwest side. That part of the outlook is
complicated by a long-lived, quasi-linear convective system now
weakening across portions of southwestern GA and the FL Panhandle,
leaving behind a substantial theta-e deficit over parts of AL and
most of MS. Though now weakening, this activity has progressed
across the region faster and/or much better-organized than almost
all synoptic and convection-allowing guidance has suggested, from
00Z initializations right to the past few hours. For example, the
HRRR overnight consistently has been unable to keep up with reality,
in terms of being too slow with convective speed and too fast to
dissipate the complex. The few progs that have maintained a
better-organized squall line (e.g., the 00Z high-res FV3 CAM) still
were a few hours too slow with convective translation -- but in
planar thermal/buoyancy guidance, more-reasonably indicate the
stabilizing effects of the wake cold pool, when spatially adjusted
eastward.

Favorable destabilization between the outflow boundary (which arcs
well southwestward offshore from AL/MS/LA) and the cold front now
appears more uncertain, though some potential still exists for
either:
1. Strong-severe convection to form along/ahead of the cold front
at some ill-defined southern rim of the favorable large-scale
lift/cooling aloft related to the cyclone, but in a moist layer that
is weaker and shallower than earlier expected, and
2. The outflow boundary to weaken enough for prefrontal/low-level
return flow (especially above the surface) to result in favorable
theta-e advection, especially into the near-coastal southeastern LA
to western Panhandle corridor closest to the remnant boundary.
Given the uncertainties, and the reasonable lack of substantial/
organized activity over the coastal plain behind the MCS in progs
that show it better, unconditional severe probabilities accordingly
have been reduced (but not eliminated) in much of the post-
convective area. Further refinements are likely in this region as
mesoscale trends and later, more-reliable guidance warrant.

Otherwise, the forecast remains largely the same farther north into
1. The Tennessee/Ohio Valley regions, where the influence of
stronger cooling/instability aloft will be more important to
convective potential, and
2. Over the eastern lobe of the outlook encompassing portions of
eastern AL and GA to the Tidewater area, where a weakened MCS will
be less to negligibly influential on destabilization from both
diurnal/diabatic and advective processes. The CAPE/shear parameter
space, especially near the warm front where enlarged hodographs are
probable, still is expected to favor supercells with a relative
maxima of tornado potential both away from the most strongly
stabilized areas of the morning cold pool, and over parts of the
VA/NC Piedmont eastward.
 

Attachments

  • 1651846702512.png
    1651846702512.png
    45.9 KB · Views: 0

OHWX97

Member
Messages
582
Reaction score
560
Location
Norwood, Ohio
There was a pretty strong couplet very near Lafitte, LA several minutes ago. Unsure if it was producing a tornado or not as there was no evident CC drop.
lafitte.png
 

Clancy

Member
Messages
566
Reaction score
409
Location
Atlanta, Georgia
Newest D1 trims away ENH in North-Central and NW GA, reduces 10% TOR probs away from ATL metro. CAMs have been showing rather minimal convection in the Western ATL metro so not too surprising.

1651855477718.png
 

OHWX97

Member
Messages
582
Reaction score
560
Location
Norwood, Ohio
Any word on yesterday's apparent tornado near Henderson, TX?
Fortunately, there seems to only have been minor injures, but definitely some heavy damage at the Whispering Pines RV Park. The top link has a video of the tornado as well as a number of damage photos.
 
Messages
1,590
Reaction score
1,380
Location
Madison, WI
Tornado down in Orange County, NC. Major damage reported to at least one building per LSR. Kind of confusing to track though, the couplet isn't that impressive and what appears to be the TDS doesn't always line up with it.
 

Attachments

  • RAX_2124_CC.png
    RAX_2124_CC.png
    897.4 KB · Views: 0

Users who are viewing this thread

Top