Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[Evan]

So far the HRRR seems to be winning out. Look at the discrete cell growth west of the KFDR WSR-88D.

 

[Helicity]

Already a Severe T-Storm Warning on that first cell blowing up east of Lubbock

 

[SilentShadow87]

PDS watch out. >95% on all probs. Yikes.

Only one other watch has ever had probs that high.

 

[Tennie]

I have family on my Dad's side who live in and around the OKC area. They came to our place over the weekend for my sister's high school graduation. I'm now praying that they all stay safe, wherever they currently are.

 

[172556]

This has all the potential to blow the outbreak of May 3, 1999, completely out of the water.

Let's all hope that that doesn't actually take place, but at this point...*sigh*

It's an analog for a sounding at Sayre, OK.

 

[jules]

I imagine the storm chaser traffic will be crazy today.

 

[warneagle]

You couldn’t draw up a nastier sounding than the 18z balloon from Norman.

 

[JWard87]

You couldn’t draw up a nastier sounding than the 18z balloon from Norman.

You could, take a look at the FWD sounding (it's only getting worse from here).

 

[Bama Ravens]

Storms are popping now, early stages of what will eventually be supercells.

 

[Shakespeare2016]

I know this a little off topic but can you get extremely intense rope EF5 tornadoes on a day like today? I know it would be more likely there going to be wedge EF5 tornadoes.

 

[Evan]

There is additional capping over Oklahoma that wasn't really predicted in advance. Because of that, storm initiation is a bit later than expected, and the atmosphere has had that much more time to increase instability and to allow better shear to float into the target area. This has enhanced an already almost unbelievable threat. The later storm initiation due to the under-forecasted capping is a BAD sign.

 

[Evan]

Going to have our first TOR warning east of Lubbock very soon. NW of Dickens.

 

[Equus]

Dickens, TX cell is getting that look and starting to wrap up. Here we go...

 

[jules]

Before the tornado warnings start, does anyone have a recommendation for a live weather video feed in the high risk area? A good news outlet, I mean.

 

[Equus]

I know this a little off topic but can you get extremely intense rope EF5 tornadoes on a day like today? I know it would be more likely there going to be wedge EF5 tornadoes.

Probably not gonna have too many ropes with the extremely low LCLs, but yeah the Elie Manitoba tor in 2007 was an F5 rope

 

[Evan]

There it is...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
221 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DICKENS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN MOTLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado warning up for the Dickens storm.

 

[bjdrivers]

A good link to live feed from TWC. https://www.livenewsnow.com/american/the-weather-channel.html

 

[Jetstream]

first tor warning of the day

 

[Equus]

Soon to probably drop a big one...