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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

Clancy said:
At least it's better than the NAM, which starts small and stays small until like 3 hours before an event begins :D
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Ive been checking the theta e some. It looks like when the QCLS/broken supercell line. Gets too Alabama that instability is going to be more refined to central Alabama and South and same into Georgia. But places west will be a bit further north. The instability looks similar to our last QLCS tornado outbreak
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Ive been checking the theta e some. It looks like when the QCLS/broken supercell line. Gets too Alabama that instability is going to be more refined to central Alabama and South and same into Georgia. But places west will be a bit further north. The instability looks similar to our last QLCS tornado outbreak
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Yeah, with the slower timing it'll be a proper nighttime event in AL and parts of GA (if chronology holds). In all scenarios it looks pretty nasty for ArkLaMiss.
 
NWS BMX AFD

"southerly flow returns through the day Monday, allowing for a
steady increase in moisture. Meanwhile, a shortwave will eject
across the Tennessee Valley early next week as an upper low
deepens across the Four Corners region. This will bring a low
chance of showers back to the area Monday and Tuesday. The upper
low to our west will eject across the Plains by midweek, sending
another front our way. Southerly flow will become a bit breezy on
Tuesday as the surface low deepens across the Plains. We will see
an increasing chance for strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a result.
There are a few details that we will be able to narrow in on in
this coming days that will help us better define the severe threat
locally. The main concern is just unstable we become. Latest
guidance suggests a moderate chance for dewpoints over 60F so we
will need to keep an eye on that. However, a lot can change over
the coming days. With that said, wind shear will not be an issue
with select forecast soundings hinting at 60-70 knots. SPC already
has a slight risk in place across Central Alabama with an
Enhanced Risk to our west. There is potential for all forms of
severe weather so continue to check back in the coming days. Drier
conditions are in store behind this system as high pressure
builds in."
 
I think something to watch for is how strong the primer low will be on Monday, seems the GFS is the only one that shows it currently though. That may help some areas with better moisture (especially if the LLJ on it is strong). Interesting feature to watch in the coming days 18Z-20250227_GFSUS_sfc_temp-81-120-10-100.gif
 
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MattW said:
Traditional ingredients may not be as prevalent on current GFS runs, but it seems SHERB is popping for Alabama.
View attachment 34230
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It actually looks like those highest values are behind the front, with the slightly lower values of 1.2 and 1.4 over the Carolinas and Virginia being in the WS. SHERB can produce some wacky values because it's trying to calculate tornadogenic conditions in HSLC setups.
 
Clancy said:
It actually looks like those highest values are behind the front, with the slightly lower values of 1.2 and 1.4 over the Carolinas and Virginia being in the WS. SHERB can produce some wacky values because it's trying to calculate tornadogenic conditions in HSLC setups.
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Fun tidbit: SHERBE attempts to correct for the wonky high values SHERB can produce. The difference being the fixed layer shear term is swapped for EBWD.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/help_sherbe.html
 
Thank you, I'll post that image then:

1740714905436.png
 

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