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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

Worth noting though there is a difference between surface moisture return, and steep lapse rates driven by cooler temperatures aloft when determining instability. Surface dew points may very well uptrend significantly but to bring about significant instability there needs to be a degree of cold air advection at the mid levels to create steep lapse rates, especially for early spring setups - hence why the current charts have the most cape in the far western edge of the warm sector where it begins to overlap with the upper cold pool.

Plenty of setups have been able to produce intense/violent tornadoes with surface dps of even the upper 50s/low 60s - e.g the Northern mode of 3/31/23 but these setups where positioned relative to the trough in a way where steep lapse rates were present. That's why even with a fairly large extent of 60F dew points on the models for next Wednesday the portion of the warm sector which is actually unstable is a fair bit smaller. However, this can of course be compensated by significant increases in surface temperature + dew point, and to an extent strong wind shear.

That's not to say this won't stay the same until the setup. A lot can happen at a week's range, and there will be plenty of important trends yet to come in the models which will give a better idea of severe threat. Even the last few GFS runs have had subtle but important differences in warm sector shape and size in relation to the upper trough which influenced the severe risk differently. Need to remind myself there is probably not too much point getting hung up on individual model runs for now, though.
 
Clancy said:
Yeah, not the best moisture return depicted currently. Would definitely be the main factor putting a lid on this system, but it will definitely be a problem for the immediate Gulf Coast regardless. It'll definitely be Kinematics Central though.
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@Clancy did you mean to play that second pic for Mar 13 or am I missing something here??? lol

That bright blue got my attention.
 
Clancy said:
Just a rolling chain of the absolutely most brain dead comments I've ever seen down below that tweet (and that's by Twitter standards). Don't regret being off social media pretty much completely aside from this forum. Every morning I wake up and thank the lord for giving me more than 3 neurons and basic human empathy.

Back to models, the 12Z GFS is coming into further agreement with the Euro, slowing down ever so slightly and depicting a trough evolution more in-line with the ECMWF. Given the timing, this could end up being a daytime event in Georgia.
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In the D4-6 today I am not surprised you mention Georgia as areas in and around GA were highlighted. I am sure the highlighted areas will change.
 
Clancy said:
Whoops! Yeah that's a mistake.
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Clancy is just getting ready for the next threat is all. LOL! MORE!!!!
Star Wars GIF
 
UK_EF4 said:
Worth noting though there is a difference between surface moisture return, and steep lapse rates driven by cooler temperatures aloft when determining instability. Surface dew points may very well uptrend significantly but to bring about significant instability there needs to be a degree of cold air advection at the mid levels to create steep lapse rates, especially for early spring setups - hence why the current charts have the most cape in the far western edge of the warm sector where it begins to overlap with the upper cold pool.

Plenty of setups have been able to produce intense/violent tornadoes with surface dps of even the upper 50s/low 60s - e.g the Northern mode of 3/31/23 but these setups where positioned relative to the trough in a way where steep lapse rates were present. That's why even with a fairly large extent of 60F dew points on the models for next Wednesday the portion of the warm sector which is actually unstable is a fair bit smaller. However, this can of course be compensated by significant increases in surface temperature + dew point, and to an extent strong wind shear.

That's not to say this won't stay the same until the setup. A lot can happen at a week's range, and there will be plenty of important trends yet to come in the models which will give a better idea of severe threat. Even the last few GFS runs have had subtle but important differences in warm sector shape and size in relation to the upper trough which influenced the severe risk differently. Need to remind myself there is probably not too much point getting hung up on individual model runs for now, though.
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great pov
 
Parker Copeland said:
maaaaan that D6 discussion is kinda wild NGL, when is D5?
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The Day 4 thru 8 Outlook gets updated once a day. I'm hoping that changes some during next few years.
 
JPWX said:
The Day 4 thru 8 Outlook gets updated once a day. I'm hoping that changes some during next few years.
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Would absolutely love that, though I'm sure that's probably quite a bit more work. Alternatively, having something like an SPC-level equivalent of an AFD covering the mid-range that gets updated a few times a day as they're able to would be really sweet.
 
Jason Mills said:
In regards to Andy's point, the big 700 mb warm plume from the STJ is a synoptic feature that should be easier for models to resolve at this stage.
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It's not necessarily at 700 mb, it's more in the 500-250 mb level, especially around 300 mb.
 
75 to 59 (16 degree difference) between Tuesday and Wednesday of next week for my neck of the woods. Not your greatest temperature difference, but close enough to 20 for a severe threat.
 
With each run, the GFS nudges towards the slower Euro solution. Still wouldn't bank on it, but a slower-moving system seems like the more likely evolution for now. Could have some implications on moisture return, not sure.
trend-gfs-2025022718-f132.500wh.conus.gif
 
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