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Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

CIPS signal continues to intensify. Rather strong values for 10+ report events, which is fairly rare at this range.
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Not your "classic" severe setup, but still, the 00z Euro/12z Canadian 500mb looks like a legit significant threat.
 

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JPWX said:
Not your "classic" severe setup, but still, the 00z Euro/12z Canadian 500mb looks like a legit significant threat.
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Maybe not classic in a typical sense, but systems like that have historically made for pretty serious events in this part of the world.
 
Clancy said:
Maybe not classic in a typical sense, but systems like that have historically made for pretty serious events in this part of the world.
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Exactly. That's why I put classic in quotes.
 
Clancy said:
990 over NE Missouri and then goes all the way down to 982 as it passes over Michigan and Toronto.
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Strengthening low pressure. Yep that would be a HUGE problem for us. Not only would you get significant backing of winds which in turn would increase tornado potential, but it would also provide potential for a secondary low pressure formation as well.
 
JPWX said:
Strengthening low pressure. Yep that would be a HUGE problem for us. Not only would you get significant backing of winds which in turn would increase tornado potential, but it would also provide potential for a secondary low pressure formation as well.
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It's kept that presentation for the last 2 long-range runs, anxious to see if it continues. GFS is all over the place, 06Z run was an absolute nothing-burger and 12Z is back to something completely different from Euro, but could still cause some problems.
 
Clancy said:
It's kept that presentation for the last 2 long-range runs, anxious to see if it continues. GFS is all over the place, 06Z run was an absolute nothing-burger and 12Z is back to something completely different from Euro, but could still cause some problems.
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Yeah. Goofy Forecast System hints at it then backs off then comes back. I've found most of the time that the GFS usually hints at long range severe weather first, but is typically late to the party after the Euro/Canadian picks up on it..
 
JPWX said:
Strengthening low pressure. Yep that would be a HUGE problem for us. Not only would you get significant backing of winds which in turn would increase tornado potential, but it would also provide potential for a secondary low pressure formation as well.
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Also with a slp gaining strength as it moves northeast , would increase height falls which would increase a severe threat pretty far down south towards coast even. Yeah 12z looks it’s trying to get the original look back from last nights 0z run from last nite … which does t surprises me since 6z suits don’t get
Fully data loaded in this far out …I pay more attention to 0z and 12 z runs. When the system is past 48 hours out still
 
JPWX said:
Yeah. Goofy Forecast System hints at it then backs off then comes back. I've found most of the time that the GFS usually hints at long range severe weather first, but is typically late to the party after the Euro/Canadian picks up on it..
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I was wondering about this. This morning when I woke up and looked at the models, I said to myself "We're in that wonky GFS dead zone aren't we?" But it seems that on the 12z runs, it's starting to ramp back up a bit.
 
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