Deja vu
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Mesoscale Discussion 0136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025
Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama and the Florida
panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 042202Z - 042300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A downstream watch will be needed with a threat for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes across portions of southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle.
DISCUSSION...A strongly-forced line of convection is ongoing this afternoon across portions of southeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi. Moisture ahead of the line has been relatively meager, with modified continental air mass in place across southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle yielding surface dewpoints largely in the 50s to low 60s F. As the line approaches from the west, the low-level mass response is expected to turn the winds more southerly, bringing higher moisture onshore and at least some positive buoyancy. The 21Z KLIX sounding shows the effect of this with a deep moist adiabatic layer near the surface resulting in meager CAPE values.
Given the very strong low-level flow in that sounding and on VWPs across the region, and despite the poor low-level lapse rates, convection is expected to mix some of that flow down to the surface producing a threat for damaging gusts. In addition, given the strong low-level shear, some mesovortex-type tornadoes are possible in the line as the line moves to the east with time.
..Supinie/Mosier.. 03/04/2025