Severe WX March 3rd-5th 2025 Severe Weather Threat

[MMWX]

Maybe not start threads and have people losing their crap 10 days in advance of an event from now on

I mean it's not like one model run caused the start of the thread. Multiple runs were showing a potent setup. The SPC had eyes on it over a week ago.

It was only like the 10th D6 30% in history. I don't understand why that wouldn't be worth it's own thread. Not every setup has to be 4/27

 

[MoonBaby]

Oh gosh...someone wanna tell 'em?

I did! He said “I won’t let them stay on long”. My neighbors know I’m the weather nerdy one. Still don’t listen unless it’s about tornadoes

 

[ColdFront]

I mean it's not like one model run caused the start of the thread. Multiple runs were showing a potent setup. The SPC had eyes on it over a week ago.

It was only like the 10th D6 30% in history. I don't understand why that wouldn't be worth its own thread. Not every setup has to be 4/27

I actually really didn’t mind the thread, because as you noted, rare D6 30%.

I think the hype train over the past few days was a little much with the setup completely down trending.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s a duck. Not a duck with a slim chance for open warm sector supercells that could go crazy because the kinematics and all these other qualifiers.

 

[Ledian]

...how? What was this house made of?

 

[KevinH]

Maybe not start threads and have people losing their crap 10 days in advance of an event from now on

@MichelleH said she “green lit” this thread early soooooooo lol

 

[Atlantic]

...how? What was this house made of?

Straw appently! (Joke)

 

[TheSuckZone]

If nothing else, the wind is ripping today, power outages already in Alabama

Backside of this system is no joke either. Have had 50 mph + gusts all day likely increasing to 60-70 this evening

 

[slenker]

I mentioned a few days ago that I'm training my very own custom tornado model that blends traditional weather modeling algorithms with quantum entanglement to more accurately predict the timing, location and intensity of tornadoes. The objective is to create a model that can predict individual tornado tracks, timing and intensity within a 5 mile margin of error and with a <15 minute margin, hours before the event itself.

I'm happy to report the results so far have been quite promising, although more refinement is needed. Here's the projected risk map from an individual event I backtested (December 10th, 2023, the Mayfield Tornado)

The image below shows the model's prediction of the event roughly 12 hours before the main tornado forms (about the same time as an SPC 06Z update, or the first D1 forecast).

Obviously there's some noise/data leakage that needs to be addressed (the big 2nd risk are on the left is a clear false positive), but the model produced a highly accurate forecast for the tornadogensis coordinates of the Mayfield tornado.

I'll continue refining the model and will start running it on upcoming events!

That's awesome, looks really promising already! Can't wait to see the future versions.

 

[TheSuckZone]

DISCUSSION...The warm sector is slowly expanding eastward across
southern Mississippi with upper 60s dewpoints now across southern
Louisiana. Thunderstorms development continues along and slightly
ahead of a cold front extending from near the ArkLaMiss to the
central Louisiana Gulf Coast. A few embedded supercells have
produced transient circulations and some severe wind gusts, but a
strong, mature supercell has yet to form. This remains a possibility
this afternoon as convection continues to develop and slowly deepen
across southern Louisiana and Mississippi. The supercell tornado
threat this afternoon will increase if a large enough area of
greater instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) can develop. However,
this is seemingly less likely as eastward warm sector expansion
remains slow with expansive cloud cover. Nonetheless, even without
mature supercells, a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat will
continue through the afternoon and into the evening with very strong
low-level flow (70 knots at 1.5 km per JAN 19Z RAOB).

 

[Kds86z]

hmmmmm

 

[MichelleH]

@MichelleH said she “green lit” this thread early soooooooo lol

I did. And I make no apologies for that, either.

 

[MMWX]

I actually really didn’t mind the thread, because as you noted, rare D6 30%.

I think the hype train over the past few days was a little much with the setup completely down trending.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s a duck. Not a duck with a slim chance for open warm sector supercells that could go crazy because the kinematics and all these other qualifiers.

I personally didn't see much "hype" around it in the past couple of days. I think most that have basic model knowledge saw it was downtrending.

 

[ColdFront]

I personally didn't see much "hype" around it in the past couple a days. I think most that have basic model knowledge saw it was downtrending.

We had people discussing a small moderate lol

 

[MMWX]

I wouldn’t say people were “losing their crap”. This is a weather forum. People do this for fun and to help with their career. Talking about a potential weather situation isn’t a bad thing, and it’s *good* that so far it’s not as bad as imagined. I don’t understand the sass.

Lots of people who live halfway across the country sometimes forget about the human aspect to weather and go to sleep in a sour mood because the EF8 Dead Man Walking didn't wipe a town off the map.

 

[Atlantic]

I am in the future path of this in Virginia possibly very late tonight or tomorrow. I am personally expecting a lot of rain and maybe an isolated thunderstorm mixed in with it.

 

[ColdFront]

Lots of people who live halfway across the country sometimes forget about the human aspect to weather and go to sleep in a sour mood because the EF8 Dead Man Walking didn't wipe a town off the map.

I think this is just the classic tension in every wx community, and it’s not unique. You have people who look forward to this from a chasing perspective and if that doesn’t pan out, they are disappointed. No one is expressing disappointment there hasn’t been destruction. That’s just a weak argument.

 

[MMWX]

We had people discussing a small moderate lol

And nobody was saying a tornado driven moderate. The only MDT discussion was wind-driven.

Are you sure you aren't projecting what one or two people said as what the whole board is saying?

I agree with you. Sometimes there is a little bit of groupthink on the board. But I really did not see a mass consensus on this board of today being some can't miss tornado threat after the model downtrend.

 

[JPWX]

I mean it's not like one model run caused the start of the thread. Multiple runs were showing a potent setup. The SPC had eyes on it over a week ago.

It was only like the 10th D6 30% in history. I don't understand why that wouldn't be worth it's own thread. Not every setup has to be 4/27

Say that louder for the people in the back!

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

We had people discussing a small moderate lol

yuuup, this is not the event to give us the first red sharpy of da year lol, just a sub par ahh sick, the one 10# from a week or 2 ago actually had a mdt level env just not much used besides 2 sig-intense nadoes

 

[UncleJuJu98]

We had people discussing a small moderate lol

Still enough time for that moderate to be popped .

Let me insert the reed timmer energy back into the thread.