Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

[warneagle]

Still a new PDS warning stretching up to Tennessee with it.

 

[UK_EF4]

The cell near Memphis seems to be going in 'waves' of weakening and strengthening. The environment is still favourable - I still think it may attempt reorganisation a couple more times and eventually drop a strong tornado.

 

[kcyalater]

this has to be an abundance of caution move. very favorable kinematics but supercell structure is awful at the moment.

 

[Equus]

00z soundings are in - notably from Jackson still see those dry lower levels and Nashville is actually in the anvil and precip of that long track supercell at this point

Little Rock, for reasons no one would blame them for, seems to have not launched at 00z

 

[atrainguy]

 

[keithGA]

Shot of a lifetime right there.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah for whatever reason it's just not able to sustain the low-level circulation. Not sure why, but if it does manage to get its act together it could put down a big one because the parameters there are still very favorable.

 

[warneagle]

That is one of the most incredible shots I've ever seen, no exaggeration

 

[SmokeEater]

On another note, 90 mph winds heading for the Chicago metro.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[cincywx]

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. At 735 PM CDT, a storm chaser
reported a tornado crossing Highway 61, 4 miles north of
Tunica.

 

[Equus]

Getting quite a bit of inhibition that's no doubt killing new cell growth in that area at this point, but with such a well established cell that shouldn't be an issue; I think we are perhaps seeing the sign of a new meso forming at this point so it could be cycling

 

[Evan]

I believe the Tunica cell is simply cycling right now. Worried it will get its act together right as it heads into the more populated areas south of Memphis.

 

[andyhb]

Definitely a tornado in progress near Rantoul IL.

 

[kcyalater]

I believe the Tunica cell is simply cycling right now. Worried it will get its act together right as it heads into the more populated areas south of Memphis.

it looks to be collapsing completely. very poor structure on it.

 

[warneagle]

Definitely a tornado in progress near Rantoul IL.

has a PDS warning now

 

[atrainguy]

PDS!

 

[UK_EF4]

Looks like an RFD surge of some sort occurring on TMEM radar... tornado probably will touch down soon. Inflow strengthening as well per KNQA.

 

[cincywx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN TEXAS...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND FAR
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 010042Z - 010245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS ADVANCING OUT
OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
SEVERE HAIL, INCLUDING A REPORT OF HAIL UP TO 1.75". VAD PROFILES
FROM KPOE AND KSHV IN FT. POLK, LA AND SHREVEPORT, LA HAVE ANALYZED
0-2 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2. GIVEN THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND PROFILES
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WITH DOWNSTREAM EXTENT INTO WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. THE VAD PROFILE AT KDGX (BRANDON, MS) HAS OBSERVED 0-1
SRH AROUND 300 M2/S2. GIVEN THE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, EXPECT
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..THORNTON/EDWARDS.. 04/01/2023

 

[Jacob]

Gotta believe that Memphis storm has a TOG now based on TMEM velocity signature

 

[UK_EF4]

Yep about to post that.