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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

For me personally, this is the first time that I've seen a Moderate Risk and a High Risk for North MS from 2 separate outbreaks within just a week apart.
 
AR cells strike me the most atm, maturing discrete line with lots of clearing ahead
1kmv.gif
 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 94
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WEST TENNESSEE
NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TORNADOES, LARGE
HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE. PARAMETERS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES.
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90/90 probs
 
treypops said:
There are definitely too many chasers on the road and half of them don't know what the hell they're doing. But in the case of Rolling Fork and Silver City, many of those chasers became rapid response resources helping pull trapped people out of rubble. Thank God for the ones who jumped in to help. Some of them are forever changed.
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I forgot to mention how many other chasers jumped in right after the storms, including my friend in Silver city. It was amazing to see how many of them turned instantly into first responders helping victims. They're different from the guys who are just out there chasing for the storm chance of getting that "shot" on camera.
 
WOW!!!!! Do yall think this HIGH Risk is justified? Dewpoints in the lower 60s aren't the most buoyant for mega outbreaks. I assume last weeks outbreak plays a part in the upgrade where the MOD otherwise might seem sufficient. I'm leading toward an underperormance & hope I'm right. After last week this is 1 situation where I really don't want to be wrong & I think many others hope I'm right today too.
 
Bad all around but that discrete supercell with a UH streak southwest of Chicago is really concerning. Take it seriously not literally, of course, but the fact that that's on the table is really worrying.
 
brianc33710 said:
WOW!!!!! Do yall think this HIGH Risk is justified? Dewpoints in the lower 60s aren't the most buoyant for mega outbreaks. I assume last weeks outbreak plays a part in the upgrade where the MOD otherwise might seem sufficient. I'm leading toward an underperormance & hope I'm right. After last week this is 1 situation where I really don't want to be wrong & I think many others hope I'm right today too.
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Absolutely, I do.
 
We are currently at 12 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:

SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1237 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 1236 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING DES MOINES IA - KDMX 1230 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1215 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1204 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 1155 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1153 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 1152 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1128 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 1126 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
 
brianc33710 said:
WOW!!!!! Do yall think this HIGH Risk is justified? Dewpoints in the lower 60s aren't the most buoyant for mega outbreaks. I assume last weeks outbreak plays a part in the upgrade where the MOD otherwise might seem sufficient. I'm leading toward an underperormance & hope I'm right. After last week this is 1 situation where I really don't want to be wrong & I think many others hope I'm right today too.
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There's a substantial area of upper 60s dews further south over Arkansas and strong southerly winds at the surface to transport it northward. Moisture shouldn't be an issue.
 
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