Peter Griffin
Member
You have all those April dates, 1 March date which is as close as you can get to April without being in it and........................ then you get hit with that December date. What a wild outbreak that was.
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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)
- Thread starter Lake Martin EF4
- Start date
To me personally, this event was more…I don’t want to say impactful or greater, but I feel like In terms of geographic reach and tornados, it pulls one over on April 2020 Easter even though that outbreak had more tornados.
I feel like Easter 2020 was a convective grungy linear system with a couple of rogue supercells in southern Mississippi. With this system you had the nasty QLCS up north, discrete cells stretching from Iowa to as far as East Texas. Their ability to stay discrete basically the entire time and consistently cycle tornados was impressive.
I feel like Easter 2020 was a convective grungy linear system with a couple of rogue supercells in southern Mississippi. With this system you had the nasty QLCS up north, discrete cells stretching from Iowa to as far as East Texas. Their ability to stay discrete basically the entire time and consistently cycle tornados was impressive.
CheeselandSkies
Member
DVN has finally corrected/updated their survey information to separate the tornado that passed near Farson/Hedrick/Martinsburg (maximum EF3 damage) from the Keota EF4 which formed right in front of me southwest of town.
However, I wish they'd actually number the tornadoes in order of the time they occurred. The listing seems totally random/scattershot.
The Tornado Outbreak of March 31, 2023
www.weather.gov
However, I wish they'd actually number the tornadoes in order of the time they occurred. The listing seems totally random/scattershot.
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I believe that the intensity and strength of one tornado outbreak can be analyzed from three dimensions.
Firstly, it depends on the amount of tornados. As of now, 135 tornadoes have been confirmed during the 3/31 to 4/1 event, of which approximately 125 have been confirmed within 24 consecutive hours, now ranked fourth or fifth in all time history.
Secondly, it depends on the intensity.
According to the calculation rules of Grazulis, an EF5 tornado is 15 points, an EF4 tornado is 10 points, an EF3 tornado is 5 points, and an EF2 tornado is 2 points. EF0/1 does not count. Currently, this outbreak stands at 131 points, ranked eighth after 1950. Easter 2020 was 133 points and December 10 2021 was 80 points. The points should be higher if Robinson get EF4 rating.
It's also the highest point an outbreak can get in March since 1950
Finally, it depends on the path length of tornados, it is currently confirmed that the EF2+tornados from the event had a total path length of about 679miles, which is the highest after the super outbreak 2011 and ranks eighth in the history of the entire era.
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tornado examiner
Member
There seems to be a very noticeable separation of the two modes from this outbreak.
CheeselandSkies
Member
This was right on the cusp of being really, really bad for the upper Midwest. Imagine if the cap had been just a tad bit stronger in the face of that very strong forcing, I wonder if the cells would have remained discrete longer and continued to produce tornado families like that, perhaps going through places like Iowa City, Dubuque and the Quad Cities.
The one thing that kept me going to Iowa was just how totally classic the synoptic setup was, with the left exit region of the 500mb jet nosing right into the warm sector just southeast of the surface low/triple point. The forcing causing a quick linear transition was a wild card, but I gambled that the shear vector was perpendicular enough to the initiating boundary that storms could remain discrete long enough, and for once in my chasing career that sort of gamble paid off.
Shakespeare 2016
Member
Wasn't there quite a few tornado families from this event?
CheeselandSkies
Member
I'm referring specifically to the northern high risk and its immediate surroundings (E IA, NW IL, S WI) where a majority if not all the tornadoes other than the Farson/Martinsburg-Keota family took place after the transition to QLCS.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Linked from @JBishopwx in the main 2023 thread, in the regional composite radar in Trey's video you can see how quickly Iowa/NW IL went QLCS after the Keota cell finally got swallowed.
Kinda over the moon he included some of my footage...
Kinda over the moon he included some of my footage...
Shakespeare 2016
Member
It looks like the Moderate Risk performed the best followed by the High and Enhanced Risks.
Tanner
Member
It appears that an EF5 polygon has been added to the DAT north of Keota Iowa. Could be a mistake...but the home that the indicator is over looks large and *possibly* well-built.
tornado examiner
Member
That’s new
Penitentes
Member
Tanner
Member
Well, not very often do the highly sophisticated WFO’s make a mistake like that, jeez. More so is this mistake laughable given the social climate surrounding the “forbidden” EF5 rating.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
While some WFOs did great with this outbreak, some were absolutely shoddy. The absolute variation in how surveys are performed, and even how they rate damage in different ways, is so disjointed.
- Thread starter
- #2,717
Lake Martin EF4
Member
I feel betrayed, somewhat.
Tim Marshall saw it and immediately made sure it was lower bound EF3 LOL
Shakespeare 2016
Member
I am in my 40s and been studying tornado damage for 20+ years and there are people on this site who are much younger than me and have a better understanding of it than I do. However, what do we know? Sigh!
CheeselandSkies
Member
DVN has added the video still I offered them (same as my avatar) to their 3/31 event page.
The Tornado Outbreak of March 31, 2023
www.weather.gov