Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

[notsoencrypted]

I'm surprised that the death toll wasn't higher. This could have been much, much worse.

I think it helped that a lot of the tornadoes were during the day. It makes a huge difference. Sullivan was after dark and I think that plays a part in the loss of life. Beyond that, it hit a lot of very rural areas (for the most part). If it had hit more populated areas, we would have death tolls more like what we saw in Little Rock. If the outbreak had been more nocturnal, it also would have been worse. I think Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, for example, got extremely lucky. And, depressingly, since Little Rock was one of the first places hit, the story of that helped put people on alert. On top of that all, the northern section of the outbreak generally happened where basements are fairly common. There are still mobile homes, but not a ton. That means more people have easier access to shelter.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I think it helped that a lot of the tornadoes were during the day. It makes a huge difference. Sullivan was after dark and I think that plays a part in the loss of life. Beyond that, it hit a lot of very rural areas (for the most part). If it had hit more populated areas, we would have death tolls more like what we saw in Little Rock. If the outbreak had been more nocturnal, it also would have been worse. I think Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, for example, got extremely lucky. And, depressingly, since Little Rock was one of the first places hit, the story of that helped put people on alert. On top of that all, the northern section of the outbreak generally happened where basements are fairly common. There are still mobile homes, but not a ton. That means more people have easier access to shelter.

Yeah night time tornadoes are the worst, i have to admit I've been lucky from not being directly hit from two ef3s during the night, slept through one back in January 2012 and then got called at 11 in the night on January 2022 before it hit down the road had to run to my neighbors basement in the nick of time. I don't have weather radio or a notificstion system to ding me so I just got to sleep if the risk isn't super high which really got me in trouble on the 2022 one which was a slight risk if I remember correctly

 

[UK_EF4]

Wynne tornado has a preliminary path length of 73 miles per DAT. Going to show again that lots of these tornadoes were very long tracked, not that this makes a difference to tornado outbreak magnitude anyway...

 

[JBishopwx]

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSMEG&e=202304052235

Latest update from NWS Memphis

 

[warneagle]

A tad surprised we're still only at one EF4 for such a large outbreak.

Part of it is that (fortunately) many of these tornadoes (especially in the northern part of the outbreak) seemed to reach their peak strength away from populated areas. If some of those large tornadoes in Iowa that were mostly over open fields had hit more populated areas, I think we'd have more than one EF4.

 

[TH2002]

Considering their track record, MEG has been doing a pretty good job with the McNairy County survey. Unsurprisingly the one large home near Bethel Springs appears to have been pretty poorly anchored.

 

[buckeye05]

I suspect that the Sullivan, IN tornado was EF4 capable as well.

 

[pohnpei]

I suspect that the Sullivan, IN tornado was EF4 capable as well.

I think Sullivan was definitely violent near Robinson area.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Considering their track record, MEG has been doing a pretty good job with the McNairy County survey. Unsurprisingly the one large home near Bethel Springs appears to have been pretty poorly anchored.

Well, I will cut MEG a break as that is really crappy anchoring.

 

[TH2002]

Well, I will cut MEG a break as that is really crappy anchoring.

Lowballing a tornado is one thing but it's another entirely to leave miles upon miles of damage path unsurveyed, which is what MEG is notorious for doing.

Yet, this time around MEG is actually doing a better job; at least for now, their survey of McNairy Co. is actually more thorough than Quad Cities' survey of the Keota tornado.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

View attachment 19855
Wynne tornado has a preliminary path length of 73 miles per DAT. Going to show again that lots of these tornadoes were very long tracked, not that this makes a difference to tornado outbreak magnitude anyway...

Yes, I am very impressed with the track length of some of these tornadoes.

 

[andyhb]

I think Sullivan was definitely violent near Robinson area.
View attachment 19856View attachment 19857View attachment 19858View attachment 19859
View attachment 19860

Ok some of this looks pretty high end.

 

[andyhb]

Part of it is that (fortunately) many of these tornadoes (especially in the northern part of the outbreak) seemed to reach their peak strength away from populated areas. If some of those large tornadoes in Iowa that were mostly over open fields had hit more populated areas, I think we'd have more than one EF4.

We'd have two EF4+ tornadoes had both those IA tornadoes struck towns (or just more substantial structures). I can say that with confidence.

 

[andyhb]

I'm seeing very few DIs on DAT from the IL portion of that Sullivan track.

 

[Tanner]

I'm seeing very few DIs on DAT from the IL portion of that Sullivan track.

Hopefully there’s good reason. The damage shown above looks violent.


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[andyhb]

Hopefully there’s good reason. The damage shown above looks violent.


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The ILX page has a more detailed track, but that tree damage alone looks pretty severe. Not sure where exactly those flyover photos were taken.

The lack of DIs in that portion of the track has me a bit suspicious, since it had its strongest signature on radar with a pronounced debris ball at that time @buckeye05.

Where is the overhead video where those screengrabs were taken @pohnpei? I'd like to do some geolocating.

 

[cincywx]

I think it helped that a lot of the tornadoes were during the day. It makes a huge difference. Sullivan was after dark and I think that plays a part in the loss of life. Beyond that, it hit a lot of very rural areas (for the most part). If it had hit more populated areas, we would have death tolls more like what we saw in Little Rock. If the outbreak had been more nocturnal, it also would have been worse. I think Iowa City and Cedar Rapids, for example, got extremely lucky. And, depressingly, since Little Rock was one of the first places hit, the story of that helped put people on alert. On top of that all, the northern section of the outbreak generally happened where basements are fairly common. There are still mobile homes, but not a ton. That means more people have easier access to shelter.

you hit the nail on the head with everything here, but this in particular i wouldnt have even thought to consider. that tornado really did "kick off" the outbreak and because it was a big city, awareness spread like crazy. it was also wild how not only were there hundreds of videos of it on social media as it happened, but nearly every lil rock news station had a camera on it.

 

[pohnpei]

The ILX page has a more detailed track, but that tree damage alone looks pretty severe. Not sure where exactly those flyover photos were taken.

View attachment 19861

The lack of DIs in that portion of the track has me a bit suspicious, since it had its strongest signature on radar with a pronounced debris ball at that time @buckeye05.

Where is the overhead video where those screengrabs were taken @pohnpei? I'd like to do some geolocating.

Some taken near this place.

It's pretty striking to me that those buildings got mostly obliterated was on the left side of the circulation while tornado moving at 70mph.
Another two places

 

[TH2002]

I think Sullivan was definitely violent near Robinson area.
View attachment 19856View attachment 19857View attachment 19858View attachment 19859
View attachment 19860

Do you mind linking me to where you found this aerial imagery?

 

[andyhb]

Do you mind linking me to where you found this aerial imagery?

I believe it's this video: https://thehill.com/changing-americ...ados-path-of-destruction-in-illinois-indiana/

Edit: not all of those areas are in that video though