Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: this_feature_currently_requires_accessing_site_using_safari
Much like March 3, 2019 and now March 3, 2020, these troughs can look like garbage, but give it very cold mid and upper level temps. It gets those strong updrafts going.
If I’m recalling correctly, 300mb temps were sub -40C last night. That’s very cold.
Agree. Although there isn't that typical "look" on sim reflectivity, looking back at the forecast soundings for the Nashville, TN area on several 00z model runs last night point to an environment with a lot of potential. Example from the 00z NAM ~6 hours prior:There was nothing garbage about this setup. That’s why we got the supercells and tornadoes that occurred last night. Same with what happened this date last year.
This was in NO WAY your prototypical 500mb pattern for tornadoes. First glance at this, I wouldn’t guess we’d potentially have a violent tornado. Here is valid for midnight last night.There was nothing garbage about this setup. That’s why we got the supercells and tornadoes that occurred last night. Same with what happened this date last year.
This was always forecasted to have great mid level temps which allow updrafts to accelerate. The 300 and 500mb flow (westerly) allows for the colder mid level temps to over spread the “warm” sector and we got a solid amount of instability even with dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s.Good observation, however, that begs the question in my mind:
I thought one of the hallmarks of "quality" (of their apparent ability to produce svr wx) troughs is their ability to create a favorable vertical temperature profile over the warm sector. Is this not true, or is there something more subtle going on that can't be resolved even by mesoscale models with any degree of lead time?