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From NWS Nashville on Facebook. A comparison of the preliminary track of this morning's tornado and a couple of historical Nashville tornadoes:
Hey Everyone. NWS Nashville and their families are okay. Thank YOU to all that have messaged us so early this morning. We know a lot of you are hurting and concerned about friends, family members, and loved ones. Our hearts are with you Nashville & suburbs east to Cookeville. It will be a long day, week, month ahead. We will begin the long process of damage surveys first thing this morning. Please be patient with us as it will take time to gather the data and make official determinations/ratings. I know you all want that info NOW, but patience is key. We’ve received a TON of questions on how does this March 3, 2020 tornado compare to the April 16, 1998 and March 14, 1933 downtown Nashville tornadoes. The March 3, 2020 Nashville tornado had a path near but not quite exactly like the tornadoes of April 16, 1998 & March 14, 1933. (See map below.) However, all 3 tornadoes struck the 5 Points area of East Nashville. The 1998 and 1933 tornadoes occurred during the afternoon/evening, while the 2020 tornado occurred in the middle of the night. This is also another tornado event occurring on “Super Tuesday” in Middle Tennessee. The one many remember is the 2008 tornado outbreak. That was also a nighttime tornado event (but AFTER the voting) that caused significant damage across Middle Tennessee. In the 2008 Super Tuesday tornado event, downtown Nashville was spared.
Wow, they really do seem to favor the northern to northeastern part of town, don't they? Much like how central OK significant tornadoes always seem to track through the Moore/Norman/Newcastle area, and seldom along/north of the Oklahoma River; or how Birmingham area tornadoes (1998/2011/2014) seem to "favor" the western/northern suburbs such as Bessemer, Hueytown, Pleasant Grove, McDonald Chapel, and Fultondale.
Judging from pictures/videos of I have seen so far my personal guess would be we are looking at a mid-range EF3. I haven't seen anything as of yet to indicate any EF4 damage but that is subject to change. Still a beast of a storm.
Saw a clip from drone footage in Mount Juliet that shows a clean slab with wind rowing, but attachment will be key. Fox 4 Nashville says toll is up to 19
Much like March 3, 2019 and now March 3, 2020, these troughs can look like garbage, but give it very cold mid and upper level temps. It gets those strong updrafts going.
If I’m recalling correctly, 300mb temps were sub -40C last night. That’s very cold.
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