Severe WX March 3-4, 2020 Severe Weather (Central Tennessee) (1 Viewer)

[pritchlaw]

The GFS (lol) is the only model keeping any sort of threat alive. Unless we see a big swing with the 12z suite, its dead.

This question is probably more appropriate in the Winter thread, but I'll ask it anyway: do you think our snow/extreme cold window has closed in Alabama?

 

[Kory]

This question is probably more appropriate in the Winter thread, but I'll ask it anyway: do you think our snow/extreme cold window has closed in Alabama?

It wouldn’t surprise me to see some brief shots of below average temps through the end of March but they’ll be short lived and not arctic blasts. This pattern is very progressive and isn’t blocky which tends to limit prolonged warm/cold spells.

 

[Kory]

There still isn’t much clarity on next weeks system. Newer guidance is slowing down the ejection of the cutoff which really digs into CA/MX. the phase is 100% not going to happen but I think we need to keep an eye on how this cut off ejects and at what latitude. UKMET and a notable plurality of EPS members are now slowing the cutoff enough to where its favorable Wednesday/Wednesday night.

I think we have two camps here and I think we will not have a solid idea of what will happen until Sunday at the soonest.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Atmosphere still can't produce a good phase to save its life. Been a theme all winter in the upper Midwest and usually shaves 50-75% off the modeled snow totals 150-60 hours out, even if there was decent consensus and run-run consistency in that range.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Even today the GFS is faster than the ECMWF on moving the low, but both have the low crossing AL in an area that is not favorable for severe weather. Unless the models are way off, I think we can stick a fork in this one for serious convective wx. With a High building in afterwards it's looking like a quiet first half of March at least.

 

[Kory]

Yeah this is yet again another significant flooding threat.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Looks like some decent hailers later this afternoon across west tennessee as lapse rates are pretty significant ...

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Latest hrr showing some 60 plus dbz around midsouth later today early evening ... think I better get my new mini van under my garage after work

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Latest hrr showing some 60 plus dbz around midsouth later today early evening ... think I better get my new mini van under my garage after work

I think you need to go storm chasing!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah, while nothing jumps out as particularly significant we are kicking off the first full week of (meteorological) spring with four straight days of some severe weather potential, today through Thursday.

 

[Kory]

Yeah, while nothing jumps out as particularly significant we are kicking off the first full week of (meteorological) spring with four straight days of some severe weather potential, today through Thursday.

That’s probably how all of the next week or two will be are nickel and dime severe wx threats.

Today looks like a nasty hail threat before it converges into a MCS.

 

[andyhb]

Posted this elsewhere.

W/Middle TN could get rather interesting tonight just looking at some of the progged RAP/HRRR soundings. What we have is a juxtaposition of very cold air aloft (500 mb temps approaching -20˚C) with resulting fat CAPE profiles despite somewhat marginal low level thermos, and very strong deep layer shear favoring long-lived supercells with very large hail.

Tornado potential is a bit more unclear, especially if the degree of cooling after dark sets in too quickly (or should moisture underperform somewhat). I wouldn't trust this in Dixie. Low level helicity rapidly increases post-00z with a 40-50 kt WSW LLJ and near southerly surface winds. Should we still have discrete, surface based cells by 01-02z, I would not be shocked to see a tornado or two (perhaps even a strong tornado) given favorable low level shear and considerable 0-3 km CAPE.

 

[Jacob]

Weak supercell in Bibb County right now, SE of Tuscaloosa. Circulation is pretty weak per velocity, but a nice look on reflectivity.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Nice little flying eagle right over KPAH. SVR-warned. So far it's just a hailer, but it's in a red box and it has "the look" on reflectivity, especially being so close to the radar.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Nice little flying eagle right over KPAH. SVR-warned. So far it's just a hailer, but it's in a red box and it has "the look" on reflectivity, especially being so close to the radar.

View attachment 2499

That’s a beautiful storm, but the main showing is coming later tonight. A lot more beauties ahead.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

That’s a beautiful storm, but the main showing is coming later tonight. A lot more beauties ahead.

Indeed, warnings popping up on many more of those cells in MO, now. A little early to be Monday-morning quarterbacking SPC, but I'll do it anyway because that's what weather geeks do. Perhaps when all is said and done, an ENH/30% for hail would have been warranted today?

 

[Kory]

Mid-level lapse rates on the order of 8/0-8.5 C/KM across MO and KY. That is insane.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Indeed, warnings popping up on many more of those cells in MO, now. A little early to be Monday-morning quarterbacking SPC, but I'll do it anyway because that's what weather geeks do. Perhaps when all is said and done, an ENH/30% for hail would have been warranted today?

I also wouldn’t over look the tornado and damaging wind threat.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Although the radar is hitting the storm at just over 9,000' up, that looks like pretty strong rotation south of Williamsville, MO. That couplet is consistent with those associated with some significant tornadoes of the past when observed on radar at that distance.

 

[warneagle]

Tornado warning with that supercell in western Kentucky.