Severe WX March 3-4, 2020 Severe Weather (Central Tennessee)

[BayouWeatherGeek]

 

[Bama Ravens]

Is the tornado that hit to Cookeville, TN area the same one that hit Nashville?

 

[Equus]

Same cell but I think it cycled in between. Was still causing tornado warnings as far east as downtown Knoxville

 

[JayF]

Tornadoes overnight are extremely dangerous. As you can see in this video, only split seconds are visible of the tornado. If you weren't looking, didn't have a weather radio or phone activated for emergency alerts, you would never know this tornado was out there. Good Catch by this guy.

 

[TornadoFan]

Death toll up to 21 now. Continuing to rise.

 

[Equus]

There is high EF3 borderline EF4 damage at both Nashville/Mt Juliet and Cookeville, likely two separate tornadoes. Pretty amazing

 

[Equus]

Cookeville is looking BAD, apparently 14 of the deaths are in and around there. Looking for the source of an aerial shot I've seen floating around

 

[South AL Wx]

Survey results so far from NWS Nashville:

Survey results so far: Mount Juliet (Wilson), at least EF-3 damage (155-160 mph). Donelson (Davidson), at least EF-3 damage (160-165 mph). This is just damage observed in these neighborhoods and it might possibly be the same tornado.

 

[JayF]

Some people are just obtuse. I am in shock that someone would say this much less post it in public.

 

[Equus]

Hearing 'at least EF3' and 165 before even really getting into most of the hardest hit areas really leaves the door open for EF4

Toll apparently up to 22

 

[Equus]

Cookeville aerial... yikes

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Much like March 3, 2019 and now March 3, 2020, these troughs can look like garbage, but give it very cold mid and upper level temps. It gets those strong updrafts going.

If I’m recalling correctly, 300mb temps were sub -40C last night. That’s very cold.

Good observation, however, that begs the question in my mind:

I thought one of the hallmarks of "quality" (in terms of their potential to produce high-end svr wx) troughs is their ability to create a favorable vertical temperature profile over the warm sector. Is this not true, or is there something more subtle going on that can't be resolved even by mesoscale models with any degree of lead time?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There was nothing garbage about this setup. That’s why we got the supercells and tornadoes that occurred last night. Same with what happened this date last year.

 

[Equus]

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like there's been debarked trees.

 

[KoD]

There was nothing garbage about this setup. That’s why we got the supercells and tornadoes that occurred last night. Same with what happened this date last year.

Agree. Although there isn't that typical "look" on sim reflectivity, looking back at the forecast soundings for the Nashville, TN area on several 00z model runs last night point to an environment with a lot of potential. Example from the 00z NAM ~6 hours prior:

 

[Kory]

There was nothing garbage about this setup. That’s why we got the supercells and tornadoes that occurred last night. Same with what happened this date last year.

This was in NO WAY your prototypical 500mb pattern for tornadoes. First glance at this, I wouldn’t guess we’d potentially have a violent tornado. Here is valid for midnight last night.

 

[Equus]

Debarked trees, cars thrown and damaged, numerous barren slabs with some wind rowing and minor ground scarring, and 16+ fatalities... All signs point to an upgrade being very plausible

 

[Kory]

Good observation, however, that begs the question in my mind:

I thought one of the hallmarks of "quality" (of their apparent ability to produce svr wx) troughs is their ability to create a favorable vertical temperature profile over the warm sector. Is this not true, or is there something more subtle going on that can't be resolved even by mesoscale models with any degree of lead time?

This was always forecasted to have great mid level temps which allow updrafts to accelerate. The 300 and 500mb flow (westerly) allows for the colder mid level temps to over spread the “warm” sector and we got a solid amount of instability even with dew points in the upper 50s and low 60s.

 

[Kory]

Unofficial word is the death toll will be climbing still. Search and rescue is still pulling people out of site built homes (in some cases families).