Severe WX March 29-30, 2022 Severe Event

[Equus]

Segment approaching Andalusia looks potentially interesting, in this environment it's hard to trust any line segment or cell

 

[Equus]

Meanwhile, showers are approaching the Wears Valley fire; the QLCS with its major soaking is not far behind. That plus the cessation of extreme southerly winds ought to turn the tides on it, after burning over 1k acres and several homes

 

[Casuarina Head]

@Fred Gossage @Richardjacks

Does anyone know why the derecho and severe-wind threat did not verify as expected?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

@Fred Gossage @Richardjacks

Does anyone know why the derecho and severe-wind threat did not verify as expected?

220 wind reports seems like pretty good verification to me.

 

[Casuarina Head]

220 wind reports seems like pretty good verification to me.

There were only a few High Wind (≥65-knot) reports, a surprisingly low total for a 45% Wind with a wide-ranging 10% Hatched.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

220 wind reports seems like pretty good verification to me.

Agree with you totally , this was really never a tornado set up …. But the damaging winds verified a moderate risk .

 

[mattdanielwx]

Yeah. Not a great forecast from the SPC (they've been on a struggle bus lately). An enhanced risk in west AL and a slight risk in east Alabama would have been a better forecast. I can't find a wind gust in Central AL greater than 60 MPH. Most of the wind gusts were before the storms arrived.

 

[buckeye05]

Well, I was just about to post how no fatalities have been reported, but now I’m hearing homes completely destroyed and two fatalities near Alford, FL. Does anybody remember any significant radar signatures in that area? I think I was asleep. Damage pics look nasty.

 

[buckeye05]

McClain, MS tornado damage. Big TDS popped up over town last night. Looks like a house that lost its roof and exterior walls.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Well, I was just about to post how no fatalities have been reported, but now I’m hearing homes completely destroyed and two fatalities near Alford, FL. Does anybody remember any significant radar signatures in that area? I think I was asleep. Damage pics look nasty.

Yes, here is a picture of the signature. The warning was issued at 4:03am.

759
WFUS52 KTAE 310903
TORTAE
FLC063-133-310930-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0021.220331T0903Z-220331T0930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2022

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 AM CDT.

* AT 402 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF VERNON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES,
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... STEELE CITY, GILBERTS MILL,
ORANGE HILL, KYNESVILLE, RIDGETOP, ROUND LAKE, ALFORD, COMPASS
LAKE, BRADFORD AND WAUSAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3079 8534 3060 8524 3055 8559 3061 8562
TIME...MOT...LOC 0902Z 241DEG 37KT 3059 8558

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

11-MM

 

[OHWX97]

Yeah. Not a great forecast from the SPC (they've been on a struggle bus lately). An enhanced risk in west AL and a slight risk in east Alabama would have been a better forecast. I can't find a wind gust in Central AL greater than 60 MPH. Most of the wind gusts were before the storms arrived.

They’ve been on a struggle bus lately? I beg to differ. They did very well forecasting this event and did you forget about last weeks event and how they almost flawlessly forecasted it a week in advance?

 

[Bamamuscle]

Yeah. Not a great forecast from the SPC (they've been on a struggle bus lately). An enhanced risk in west AL and a slight risk in east Alabama would have been a better forecast. I can't find a wind gust in Central AL greater than 60 MPH. Most of the wind gusts were before the storms arrived.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Scipio Africanus]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

yeah, yesterday I wanted to ask when the last time an entire state was covered, but didn't want to derail the ongoing discussions/warnings

 

[warneagle]

yeah, yesterday I wanted to ask when the last time an entire state was covered, but didn't want to derail the ongoing discussions/warnings

The whole state of Indiana was under a blanket tornado warning at one point during the Super Outbreak because the forecasters realized it was well beyond the capabilities of 1970s technology to detect and warn so many simultaneous tornadoes.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The whole state of Indiana was under a blanket tornado warning at one point during the Super Outbreak because the forecasters realized it was well beyond the capabilities of 1970s technology to detect and warn so many simultaneous tornadoes.

I thought that occurred for Indiana in the Palm Sunday 1965 outbreak (at least the northern half of the state); and for the northern half of Alabama in the '74 Super Outbreak. James Spann effectively did that for his viewing area on 4/27 by saying something along the lines of "There are so many tornadoes going on it's possible we don't talk about one for a while and these storms are moving at 60 MPH, so treat any storm that approaches as dangerous and go to your safe place."

 

[South AL Wx]

I thought that occurred for Indiana in the Palm Sunday 1965 outbreak (at least the northern half of the state); and for the northern half of Alabama in the '74 Super Outbreak. James Spann effectively did that for his viewing area on 4/27 by saying something along the lines of "There are so many tornadoes going on it's possible we don't talk about one for a while and these storms are moving at 60 MPH, so treat any storm that approaches as dangerous and go to your safe place."

Here is the text from one of the Tornado Warnings issued for Northwest Alabama during the 74 Super Outbreak, from a post on James Spann's blog:

BULLETIN
TORNADO WARNING
EANS REQUESTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
ISSUED 1035 PM CDT WED APR 3 1974

A TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ALABAMA INCLUDING TUSCALOOSA…LAUDERDALE …LIMESTONE …MADISON…COLBERT …LAWRENCE…FRANKLIN …CULLMAN… WINSTON …MARION… WAKLER …FAYETTE … LAMAR …TUSCALOOSA AND PICKENS.

NUMEROUS LARHE AND VERY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THESE AREAS AT SPEEDS OF 65-70 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADOES.

CENTREVILLE RADAR REPORTS A HOOK ECHO INDICATING A POSSIBLE TORNADO IN GUIN IN SOUTHWEST MARION COUNTY.

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SO RAPIDLY THAT PERSONS SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT FOR LOCAL WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AND TAKE COVER WHEN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHES.

And more warnings/reports from the outbreak are on this post:

Warnings and Watches on April 3, 1974 : The Alabama Weather Blog

www.alabamawx.com

I remember they did a WeatherBrains episode several years ago where those warnings were read by J.B. Elliott, who worked at the NWS Birmingham in 1974 and issued many of the warnings.

 

[Equus]

Of course the fatal tornado is a 4am spin-up in the Florida Panhandle, very unpleasant. Things looked fairly tame at 2am but of course parameters remained very significant well past that into the night.

BMX urges patience as they have a tremendous number of tracks to survey. Very very prolific outbreak across several states.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

They’ve been on a struggle bus lately? I beg to differ. They did very well forecasting this event and did you forget about last weeks event and how they almost flawlessly forecasted it a week in advance?

Yeah, I've had my issues with SPC but I have no problem with their forecasts for yesterday. They're probably still trying to sort out thunderstorm wind damage from gradient wind (and tornado) damage.

 

[warneagle]

I thought that occurred for Indiana in the Palm Sunday 1965 outbreak (at least the northern half of the state); and for the northern half of Alabama in the '74 Super Outbreak. James Spann effectively did that for his viewing area on 4/27 by saying something along the lines of "There are so many tornadoes going on it's possible we don't talk about one for a while and these storms are moving at 60 MPH, so treat any storm that approaches as dangerous and go to your safe place."

Only the northern Indiana office issued a blanket tornado warning on Palm Sunday 1965. The entire state was covered during the Super Outbreak.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Perhaps the title should be expanded to included 3/31? Wind-driven enhanced risk now up for northern VA through most of PA. Large 5% tornado contour covers most of the Eastern Seaboard. As we've seen, these very dynamic systems can make trouble with quite meager instability.