Severe WX March 29-30, 2022 Severe Event

[buckeye05]

Not doing much currently, but that isolated cell approaching the Raleigh, NC metro needs to be watched. There’s also a tornado warned supercell near Pearson, GA.

Pearson cell may be producing. Looks like a small but tight couplet east of town.

 

[warneagle]

Thankfully that cell near Pearson is in a very sparsely populated area and won't encounter another town for a while yet.

 

[Justin Hindman]

Yeah. Not a great forecast from the SPC (they've been on a struggle bus lately). An enhanced risk in west AL and a slight risk in east Alabama would have been a better forecast. I can't find a wind gust in Central AL greater than 60 MPH. Most of the wind gusts were before the storms arrived.

I will say they did a good job with the tornado projections, of course all reports might not be true and it could be just Winds, but the area was good.

 

[buckeye05]

Circulation with possible TDS near Stedman, NC.

 

[buckeye05]

Likely tornado entering the Richmond, VA suburbs.

 

[buckeye05]

Alford, FL tornado damage looks to be at least EF2 if not EF3. Also, anyone surprised at the lack of major damage reports from Perry, Marengo, and Bibb? That was a violent signature. Maybe did the same thing as Centerville/Brent from last year and managed to avoid most well-built structures while at peak strength.

 

[JBishopwx]

@Fred Gossage @Richardjacks

Does anyone know why the derecho and severe-wind threat did not verify as expected?

It did. I guess countless damage reports, people losing homes or businesses, and people getting hurt don't classify it as not getting verified. Willing to bet over half of my coverage area had damage.

 

[Jacob]

Alford, FL tornado damage looks to be at least EF2 if not EF3. Also, anyone surprised at the lack of major damage reports from Perry, Marengo, and Bibb? That was a violent signature. Maybe did the same thing as Centerville/Brent from last year and managed to avoid most well-built structures while at peak strength.

Fortunately I don't think that tornado hit much of anything in Perry/Marengo/Bibb when it was at full strength. That's about as sparsely populated of an area as you can get in the SE US.

 

[buckeye05]

Multiple supercells with tight couplets in the Richmond, VA metro now, but no CC drops or confirmation of any touchdowns yet.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Multiple supercells with tight couplets in the Richmond, VA metro now, but no CC drops or confirmation of any touchdowns yet.

Yeah, it is a little bizarre that those have not clearly produced yet.

 

[South AL Wx]

While this was only an EF-0 tornado, check out the part about finding different tree damage in the same yard between the tornadoes last week and this week.

 

[Equus]

Expect the tornadoes to fill in much more when surveys are done especially across MS but even now, verified a 15% tor across all but northwestern risk area and wind would've verified 60% over a huge swath except the easternmost, almost perfectly aligned with the moderate; the lack of sig wind reports may be more due to a paucity of actual measurement across rural MS moreso than the line being not intense enough

 

[buckeye05]

While this was only an EF-0 tornado, check out the part about finding different tree damage in the same yard between the tornadoes last week and this week.

Pointed this out as it was happening, but didn't think it would be that exact. The same yard? Truly an example of lightning striking twice.

 

[warneagle]

well I just got a nice jolt from my phone even though my part of Arlington County isn't in this tornado warning. in keeping with the trend of this event, it passed very close to the Sterling, VA radar.

 

[warneagle]

nothing on CC but this is moving through a densely-populated part of northern Virginia and will move into DC soon.

 

[Equus]

BMX surveys ongoing, four tornadoes so far (three EF1s and an EF2) Montevallo tornado connected to track all the way from Perry county and rated EF2 on a 29 mile path

 

[warneagle]

may have been a brief, weak tornado near Tysons, VA around 8:40.

 

[buckeye05]

BMX surveys ongoing, four tornadoes so far (three EF1s and an EF2) Montevallo tornado connected to track all the way from Perry county and rated EF2 on a 29 mile path

The Perry County tornado was likely violent, but I understand why they went with EF2. Maybe some aerial surveys will reveal EF3 criteria tree damage? It did mostly hit remote forest after all.

 

[Equus]

The Perry County tornado was likely violent, but I understand why they went with EF2. Maybe some aerial surveys will reveal EF3 criteria tree damage? It did mostly hit remote forest after all.

Yeah with the debris fallout I'm a bit surprised they haven't found contextual for EF3 yet, very little structures hit but the wording of the survey suggests they're quite impressed with tree damage (swath of snapped off softwoods) so we'll see if that changes; figure we'd be talking about a tragedy if it had hit the little towns it skirted around though

 

[buckeye05]

Whoa. Guess we aren’t done yet. TDS just blew up over Bedminster, PA. Wasn’t even really anything there on velocity.