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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

CheeselandSkies said:
LOL the 14Z HRRR now has the discrete sups firing in LA and AR, congealing into a QLCS by the time they cross the river. A couple of the overnight runs had an intense discrete supercell tracking from N MS into S TN (almost like a 12/23/15-type track) but that is long gone. The HRRR has really been all over the place with this one.

On a couple of past occasions I've seen it be almost spookily accurate with the location and timing of a tornadic supercell almost from the first run that was in range, but this is not going to be one of those events.

I think it has to do with the fact that we're dealing with (the potential of) open warm-sector supercell development, which is triggered by very subtle features the timing and location of which is very difficult to pin down, where as the ones it really nailed were storms forced by easily trackable synoptic features like a triple point/warm front. Also, maybe something was tweaked in the model after 5/20/19 to prevent a repeat of its massive overproduction of simulated warm-sector supercells prior to that event, but the pendulum could have swung a little too far in the other direction.
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Just for reference:

1679672851944.jpeg

5/20/2019 HRRR run, aka March of the Supercells. Had a 4/27 look to it.
 
Austin Dawg said:
I would believe the dewpoints over some of the models. Combine that with the sunshine already happening over Mississippi and you get a very volatile atmosphere.
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Exactly. There's hardly a cloud in the sky at this moment outside my house.
 
warneagle said:
A bit tangential to the actual event itself but this type of sociological research into the long-term effects of severe weather on an area is interesting.
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Interesting, as well as important.
 
Also, reminder for non-thunderstorm winds. Last event knocked our power out not from the storms but the winds associated with the front.
 
Would y’all say that there is enough cloud cover to slow daytime heating down a little in most places? There’s a ton of spotty little bits of cloud
 
Stay safe my Mississippi brothers, a very violent weather day will potentially unfold this evening. And don't go chasing a storm that could get you hurt.

Focus on a safe chasing plan, these storms won't be no joke.
 
I’m very likely expecting SPC to go high shortly. This setup currently looks the most serious since December 10th or March 25th 2021. Numerous strong tornadoes seem likely. Hope everyone stays safe

Edit: looks like I was wrong! Nevertheless I expect the upgrade next outlook
 
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SPC seems to be taking a while on issuing the new update.
 
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