Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Bunch of big ole supercells with very little tornado risk across the southeast

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Currently 9 severe warnings from Mississippi to Georgia

 

[UK_EF4]

If this was well built, I don't think a high-end EF4 rating is out of the question. Only half the slab is swept clean, but there is a lot of debris granulation evident there especially around the base of the foundation, and a fair amount of that debris could be debris from the other destroyed/damaged structures in town. The context is fairly supportive as well, with wind rowing, defoliated & debarked trees, and some light ground scouring. Given it was brick, and if it was well anchored (which is a big If!) then that definitely could be reasoning to go above EXP winds for DOD (though not sure how often that actually happens), and a rating between 185 and 190mph could be appropriate (in my opinion). Otherwise, in the more likely scenario of it having little/poor anchoring, or maybe an impact by a vehicle (I can see one in the back of the image), failure mode via garage etc, a rating of 170-185mph seems probably better.

 

[UK_EF4]

Some of the damage in Winona was worse than I thought

 

[thundersnow]

Currently 9 severe warnings from Mississippi to Georgia

There is a separate thread for today’s event now. Note the dates. I think you need to be posting about this there instead.

Severe WX - March 26th-27th, 2023

Not sure if i need to post this here or in the Severe Weather 2023 chat but there is a slight risk for Sunday.

talkweather.com

 

[buckeye05]

If this was well built, I don't think a high-end EF4 rating is out of the question. Only half the slab is swept clean, but there is a lot of debris granulation evident there especially around the base of the foundation, and a fair amount of that debris could be debris from the other destroyed/damaged structures in town. The context is fairly supportive as well, with wind rowing, defoliated & debarked trees, and some light ground scouring. Given it was brick, and if it was well anchored (which is a big If!) then that definitely could be reasoning to go above EXP winds for DOD (though not sure how often that actually happens), and a rating between 185 and 190mph could be appropriate (in my opinion). Otherwise, in the more likely scenario of it having little/poor anchoring, or maybe an impact by a vehicle (I can see one in the back of the image), failure mode via garage etc, a rating of 170-185mph seems probably better.

The thing giving me pause is the debris pattern. Lots of piling of debris on and near the foundation. I think it's rather liberal use of the term "swept off it's foundation" from that Twitter user. I also think it's rather telling in terms of failure mode that the cleanest part of the foundation is the garage slab. Solid EF4 damage for sure, but I'm not quite comfortable calling that high-end damage. It's certainly violent though, no doubt about that.

 

[Tennie]

I feel like that's an excessive number of mentions of lapse rates in one post but hey who's counting

IMO, it's only considered excessive if you're playing a drinking game where you must drink every time lapse rates are mentioned.

 

[Equus]

 

[tornado examiner]

To be expected. That rating makes sense

 

[Penitentes]

I will never get over how intense the Wren–Amory tornado's velocity signature looked (though it was quite close to the radar site). I would be relieved the ground truth reflected something less apocalyptic if I didn't feel awful for the loved ones of the two killed.

 

[UK_EF4]

The thing giving me pause is the debris pattern. Lots of piling of debris on and near the foundation. I think it's rather liberal use of the term "swept off it's foundation" from that Twitter user. I also think it's rather telling in terms of failure mode that the cleanest part of the foundation is the garage slab. Solid EF4 damage for sure, but I'm not quite comfortable calling that high-end damage. It's certainly violent though, no doubt about that.

Yes its definitely true it is not your 'slab swept clean' kind of foundation, like Bremen KY or other high end EF4s/EF5s, so I don't think this could be anything above 190mph at a push. My main question is *If* it had particularly construction and was brick and with the relatively high end context, would that permit a higher rating than say 170-180mph, and more like 180-190mph even given the slab not being totally slept clean. Yet that is a big if, as we have all seen many times by now - and I believe a rating around 180mph is the more likely and more appropriate option. I also annotated the position of the garage compared to a tornado. Not an engineer so I don't know the implications of the garage being orientated this direction as a failure mode but thought it may be interesting.

 

[Austin Dawg]

I will never get over how intense the Wren–Amory tornado's velocity signature looked (though it was quite close to the radar site). I would be relieved the ground truth reflected something less apocalyptic if I didn't feel awful for the loved ones of the two killed.

I have been speaking with a friend today who lost his house and everything in the Smithville tornado in 2011. He has been helping the cleanup and electricity crews in Amory and Smithville. He said, "You could tell it never really got on the ground except for one little area where it entered the town". "I live through the Smithville F5 in the tornado shelter, and when I came out, there was nothing standing." "There are still houses with a really large amount of damage. and most of the trees are damaged or uprooted as well, but it is nowhere nearly as extreme as it was in Smithville 2011."

 

[Casuarina Head]

I'm really surprised to see an EF2 rating for that spinup near the hospital in Fayetteville, TN. Looked very marginal on radar, and all the damage I've seen so far looked minimal. There must have been an isolated instance of more significant damage.

Does anyone have imagery showing creditable EF2+ damage from this tornado? For purposes of verification I am curious. The Rolling Fork–Winona–Amory MS EF3+ tornadoes all belonged to the same supercell, while the Fayetteville and Florence AL EF2s belonged to a separate storm. If the Fayetteville EF2 were actually weaker, would this outbreak still qualify as having met the MDT TOR criteria? (It definitely met the ENH criteria.) Does a 15% hatched TOR typically correlate with two or more EF2s or with multiple EF2+ tornado families?

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Does anyone have imagery showing creditable EF2+ damage from this tornado? For purposes of verification I am curious. The Rolling Fork–Winona–Amory MS EF3+ tornadoes all belonged to the same supercell, while the Fayetteville and Florence AL EF2s belonged to a separate storm. If the Fayetteville EF2 were actually weaker, would this outbreak still qualify as having met the MDT TOR criteria? (It definitely met the ENH criteria.) Does a 15% hatched TOR typically correlate with two or more EF2s or with multiple EF2+ tornado families?

It spawned a violent tornado. That alone qualifies as MDT verification.

 

[Casuarina Head]

It spawned a violent tornado. That alone qualifies as MDT verification.

I thought so...I just wanted to be sure rather than falsely lay claim to knowledge. By every meteorological metric this event was no bust and arguably exceeded the SPC’s expectations. Given the ensuing impact I would rather have more busts in the future...or a preferable break from intense activity.

 

[UK_EF4]

More damage that wouldn’t be out of the question of high-end EF4 pending on construction. Given comments looks like construction was sub optimal, low end EF4 would be more likely and appropriate.

 

[Evan]

Probably the subject of a new topic soon but did you actually see the tornado? Understandable if you didn't.

No, I did not see it. Was at church on Minor Pkwy and we took shelter there during the warning. As we tried to drive back to Pleasant Grove that night we quickly encountered the damage path near Edgewater/McDonald Chapel. Going through Pratt City was also a no go. I then saw the damage in those areas multiple times a week for the next several months on the way to church. Something I'll never forget and something I thought I wouldn't ever experience again. 04/27, however, made me quite wrong. That's a topic for another time, though.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

No, I did not see it. Was at church on Minor Pkwy and we took shelter there during the warning. As we tried to drive back to Pleasant Grove that night we quickly encountered the damage path near Edgewater/McDonald Chapel. Going through Pratt City was also a no go. I then saw the damage in those areas multiple times a week for the next several months on the way to church. Something I'll never forget and something I thought I wouldn't ever experience again. 04/27, however, made me quite wrong. That's a topic for another time, though.

Ah, alright. SkyCam (which WAS pointed at the tornado) simply showed what appeared to just be a wall of rain in the lightning flashes below wildly rotating clouds, so I'm guessing very few saw it.

 

[pohnpei]

The evidence that several concrete sidebars was moved in rolling fork.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

The evidence that several concrete sidebars was moved in rolling fork.
View attachment 19210View attachment 19211

Are those the buffer like things that were the reason Joplin got rated EF5?