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Severe WX March 21-23 2022

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Based on everything I've seen so far today into this evening, if I was the SPC forecaster on duty tonight, this is what would be coming across the wire at 06z. You can't ignore the multi-model signal for the discrete long-trackers to be along and east of I-55, and you also can't ignore the blatant trend for adequate instability to get up into north MS/AL ahead of that QLCS.
 
Gonna be watching moisture advection like a hawk; if those 65+s dews keep creeping closer it could be a long day
 
Equus said:
Gonna be watching moisture advection like a hawk; if those 65+s dews keep creeping closer it could be a long day
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00z HRRR soundings get flat 1000 SBCAPE up into the Shoals ahead of that QLCS with just 62-63 dewpoints. But yeah, farther south/southwest where the dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s, whew...
 
Fred Gossage said:
View attachment 12726
Based on everything I've seen so far today into this evening, if I was the SPC forecaster on duty tonight, this is what would be coming across the wire at 06z. You can't ignore the multi-model signal for the discrete long-trackers to be along and east of I-55, and you also can't ignore the blatant trend for adequate instability to get up into north MS/AL ahead of that QLCS.
Click to expand...

Wow Fred, you sure changed your tune on this one (not knockin' ya, it happens)!
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Wow Fred, you sure changed your tune on this one (not knockin' ya, it happens)!
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It started becoming evident that surface winds would be more SSE than sharp SE to ESE. That allows better moisture advection farther to the north.
 
I'd kinda stopped looking much into it locally due to the expected moisture issues but the trend has been interesting today

00z HRRR paints a not so fun picture if those cells get going (and good lapse rates showing up now say they might) and would definitely support shifting the highest risk areas NE

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I just realized I passed through Jacksboro, TX (location of the first significant tornado impact today) on my ill-fated attempt to chase the May 20, 2019 high risk. I had marathoned from Madison, WI to San Antonio over two days to meet up with my then-girlfriend (now wife) to visit her dad the previous evening; then starting that morning drove to Wichita Falls on US 281 to get into the target area. Ended up in front of the eventual Mangum, OK tornadic cell well before it produced, but got caught up in the hordes and fell hopelessly behind, never seeing anything but brake lights and grungy clouds.
 
Warning text says tornado reported in Madisonville, but details are sketchy due to darkness and distance from radar.

Is it me, or is convective coverage in Texas currently a lot less than the models (at least HRRR and 3KM NAM) predicted for this time? I thought we were supposed to have a large QLCS by now. This could be the nightmare scenario, a duo of perfectly isolated, long-lived tornadic supercells roaming the radar no-man's land of east-central Texas late into the night. Also, what implications does that have on tomorrow's threat (and the HRRR's forecast for it) if that huge QLCS supposedly ongoing by daybreak tomorrow isn't there?

Edit: Could that be it taking shape back just east of I-35, behind the Madisonville/Midway tornadic supercell?
 
Still on the ground per the most recent warning, though it's impossible to see on the radar due to a combination of the distance from the radar site and the returns being mostly the radar throwing up purple all over my screen.
 
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