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Severe WX March 21-23 2022

Despite it struggling outside of the first torndo it put down earlier, I think eventually it'll put down a decent tornado as it moves east into better dynamics
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CheeselandSkies said:
00Z HRRR seems to imply a renewed threat near the Sabine River on the tail end of the QLCS late tomorrow morning, before the main event gets going further east.

Edit: And then has very strong updraft helicity within the QLCS as it passes through the MS River vicinity, and initiates at least one big, honkin' supercell out ahead of it.
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Yeah that was a very uhhhh interesting HRRR run
1647912396162.png
Curious to see what other CAMS say but I think best threat for tornadoes would be Jackson area and slightly northward. I don't think this was really a high risk run unless it can pull more sustained supercells out, (which didn't really happen until this run so maybe a new trend), but definitely interesting run
Edit: Wanted to add I still really like the 4/12/20 comparison I made earlier for convective evolution, think 00z HRRR reinforces that idea
 
Bryan / College Station in the crosshairs of that nasty looking cell. It’s tornado warned so if you know anyone who goes to Texas A&M check in on them.
 
MattPetrulli said:
Yeah that was a very uhhhh interesting HRRR run
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Curious to see what other CAMS say but I think best threat for tornadoes would be Jackson area and slightly northward. I don't think this was really a high risk run unless it can pull more sustained supercells out, (which didn't really happen until this run so maybe a new trend), but definitely interesting run
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LOL, I just deleted that post. Was going to just say the run is downright ugly from the Sabine River to at least western Alabama with a mixture of intense/possibly tornadic QLCS, and long-tracked discrete supercells out ahead of it.
 
Ryan Hall saying “It’s going to go through downtown College Station…” just makes my heart sink. Unreal. I hope everyone on A&M’s campus is sheltered right now.
 
Breezy said:
i’m not seeing anything regarding damage right now. it’s early but maybe this thing hasn’t been on the ground.
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Things like this take time, so you may have to wait a while (perhaps the next day) to see how things actually played out. Pray for some good news from this!
 
Tennie said:
Things like this take time, so you may have to wait a while (perhaps the next day) to see how things actually played out. Pray for some good news from this!
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agreed. i’m hopeful no news is good news as that area is extremely populated and if something was down news would be going nuts.
 
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