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Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

Breaks are beginning to occur across Central Alabama. Warm front is also lifting North.

The planned MDT is perfectly placed as well. I don't see how this is a Middle Tennessee show. I may eat crow, but the MDT is well placed.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
Breaks are beginning to occur across Central Alabama. Warm front is also lifting North.

The planned MDT is perfectly placed as well. I don't see how this is a Middle Tennessee show. I may eat crow, but the MDT is well placed.
Click to expand...

Open up and have a spoon ready... I think that MOD risk is 30-40 miles too far south
 
North Mississippi storm svr warned tracking ene which will eventually put it on the Alabama Tennessee border where a lot of those helicity streaks are. Wonder what if any that will affect later in the day storms other than laying down boundaries.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1007 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Latest GOES-16 Infrared image shows several clusters of convection
extending from northwest Georgia to extreme northern Mississippi and
western Tennessee. This activity is generally situated just north of
the surface-925 mb warm front with the true warm sector airmass
(dewpoints in the lower 60s and remnant nocturnal stratus) noted from
the Clarksdale to Jasper to Macon.

The latest high resolution guidance indicate no significant changes
in terms of timing/evolution of the anticipated sensible weather
later today. The approaching 500 millibar trough/associated low will
rotate across the Ozarks today with a slowly strengthening surface
low passing to our northwest. The hi res windows/NAM/HRRR are in fair
agreement with the synoptic fields with a favorable kinematic
setup between roughly 20z and 03z. With the upper trough passing just
to our north and the area getting into the warm sector later today
the low/mid level lapse rates will be more than sufficient for rotating
updrafts and large hail production.

As always, in terms of pinpointing specific severe weather threats
the devil is in the details. The NAM continues to be the most
aggressive in terms of buoyancy potential with an ensemble
approaching so a more realistic high shear/moderate CAPE environment
late this afternoon. Given the progged location of the surface low
and potential for some (note some) deepening the surface winds may
experience enough backing to enhance the sub 1km helicity. This would
result in an enhanced tornado potential especially in a corridor
along and east to Athens to Decatur to Cullman where strong
tornadoes are possible.

An update will be issued shortly but not planning any significant
changes overall. All in all, a potential volatile setup this
afternoon and folks should take this one very seriously.
 
Anyone seeing that mass of rain quickly traversing across Tennessee at this point? Talk about laying down a boundary for later. We’ll see where the action actually takes place.
 
This is from Jim Stefkovich, former met in charge of NWS B'ham and current met with the Alabama EMA.

https://ema.alabama.gov/2018/03/19/severe-weather-likely-monday-afternoon-through-midnight/

First wave

031918-1st.png


Second wave

031918-2nd.png
 
It was 62 degrees at 9am. It is now 69 degrees here in McCalla. No longer have a working Davis station, so I can't comment on mixing issues.
 
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