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Archive March 18-20th, 2018 Severe Weather

Bama Ravens said:
How do you post the images here? The COD Goes 16 site won't let me just copy and paste the image address anymore.
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I used the Windows Snipping Tool for my last post. Not sure where you can find the individual images now.
 
Any possible issues with this outflow boundary/whatever it is screaming across MS right now? Maybe that will be a focus point for this early round?
 
Evan said:
It was 62 degrees at 9am. It is now 69 degrees here in McCalla. No longer have a working Davis station, so I can't comment on mixing issues.
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Actually, I can comment on the mixing. Checked several nearby PWSs. Shows about an average of a 4 degree DP rise. From 60-64. So, temp went from 62 to 69 while DP went from 60 to 64. That's not a very encouraging trend for my area.

I'm starting to agree that the highest risk is probably right over the TN Valley and not much father N into mid-TN. But, I also wouldn't rule things out as far south as Clanton.
 
the NWS is going to upgrade the entire HUN CWA to a Moderate risk in their next update.
 
29389242_1664384676934275_7710617253066047488_n.png
 
That first sentence from the mesoscale discussion.......yuck

"
DISCUSSION...It appears increasingly probable the risk for several
tornadic supercells will traverse across northern portions of AL
late this afternoon and through the early evening."
 
Sun isn't out yet but it is feeling pretty oppressive now even being cool. The humidity is pretty intense, am sweating buckets already.
 
They have the risk area too far south... Needs to include Huntsville yes but also southern middle TN
 
Currently 57 degrees with a dew point temp of 55 here in GA just across the Cherokee County, AL line. We’ve had lots of clouds and rain all morning. I was surprised at how cool it was when I went out this morning.
 
I wouldn't get married to what the HRRR forecasts at hour 18 for exact placement of where the most significant risk is. You'll be disappointed as it will shift 10-75 miles (sometimes more) in about 85-90% of cases vs. remaining the same. It can also be very stubborn and continue to highlight an area for 2-3 runs even after radar shows it missed the boat by 50 miles too far south/north.

It's a tool, but just one of many. If you marry the HRRR right now expect to be disappointed about 6 hours from now.
 
Evan said:
I wouldn't get married to what the HRRR forecasts at hour 18 for exact placement of where the most significant risk is. You'll be disappointed as it will shift 10-75 miles (sometimes more) in about 85-90% of cases vs. remaining the same. It can also be very stubborn and continue to highlight an area for 2-3 runs even after radar shows it missed the boat by 50 miles too far south/north.

It's a tool, but just one of many. If you marry the HRRR right now expect to be disappointed about 6 hours from now.
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Bingo. Verifying initialization is a big one people forget. Often, it doesn’t initialize properly but the same idea holds. The potential exists for some longer track supercells. Will we see them move through exact counties shown? Don’t know yet...
 
NorthBamaWX said:
ok guys when will the forum start to auto update or has that not been turned on yet?
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We quietly turned LIVE MODE on about an hour ago just to see what the server load would be. It is still on and we will leave it running unless there is a server load issue. So far so good. You must be logged in to use the feature. Just leave the last message in the thread open and new messages will automagically load.

Also with many posts coming in you can disable the email notification via https://talkweather.com/index.php?account/preferences
 
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WesL said:
We quietly turned LIVE MODE on about an hour ago just to see what the server load would be. It is still on and we will leave it running unless there is a server load issue. So far so good. You must be logged in to use the feature. Just leave the last message in the thread open and new messages will automagically load.
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yes i am sorry i didnt know i was not logged in that was my bad.
 
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