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January 23-25th Winter Wx

MacSenoiaGa said:
Im in Senoia Ga, latest runs are leaning more towards crippling ice where Im at. Showed historic amounts of snow when I checked models the last 2 days. Im curious your thoughts on how this will play out for my area. I dont have in depth access to these models, I just pay attention to Pivotal, tidbits, nws and have a basic weatherbell plan. Why does tidbits GFS always show drastically higher 10:1 snowfall than other sites? Thanks for your input!
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Honestly it's too early for totals I'd wait for a few days. And I'm not sure honestly, I'm more of a amateur, I think there's more knowledgeable people on the forumn that could better answer that question. Im still learning x.x
 
The key to this forecast is the depth of the cold air (sub freezing). If it’s deep enough, it will be snow or more likely sleet with a lot less power outages but still hazardous roads. The process for freezing rain is very complicated when the temps are close to freezing near the ground. As the rain freezes, latent heat is released which could cause the temps to rise a degree or two, but as it melts, heat is absorbed possibly causing the temps to drop again. In near/close margin situations freezing rain and ice secretion are complicated processes and difficult to forecast and can change quickly based on rain intensity and cold air advection near the ground.

Also this looks like a strictly overrunning event with no instability or convective elements. I remember an example or two when there was some lightening/convection and mixing where some of the warmer air aloft was actually mixed down causing near ground temps to temporarily warm melting some of the ice, improving conditions, that doesn’t seem to be the case since it’s all overrunning/isentropic lift.
 
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Richardjacks said:
The key to this forecast is the depth of the cold air (sub freezing). If it’s deep enough, it will be snow or more likely sleet with a lot less power outages but still hazardous roads. The process for freezing rain is very complicated when the temps are close to freezing near the ground. As the rain freezes, latent heat is released which could cause the temps to rise a degree or two, but as it melts, heat is absorbed possibly causing the temps to drop again. In near/close margin situations freezing rain and ice secretion are complicated processes and difficult to forecast and can change quickly based on rain intensity and cold air advection near the ground.

Also this looks like a strictly overrunning event with no instability or convective elements. I remember an example or two when there was some lightening/convection and mixing where some of the warmer air aloft was actually mixed down causing near ground temps to temporarily warm melting some of the ice, improving conditions, that doesn’t seem to be the case since it’s all overrunning/isentropic lift.
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yeah… in my anecdotal experience, ice storms at 32, 31… even 30 degrees don’t really seem like that big a deal, especially if the day or two leading up to the storm were well above freezing.

it really hasn’t been until my temps get down into the 20s before it has become a real mess.

i am curious on your thoughts regarding precipitation rates. i would assume that higher rates (relative to the same amount of total precipitation spread over time) actually lessen the effect on infrastructure, tree limbs, power lines, etc. but

i’m in shelby county, AL, and have noticed several models consistently showing a warm nose pushing up through central alabama making my specific location close to the border of 2 inches of ice and a cold rain.
 
akt1985 said:
If there is a silver lining to the event, at least temperatures will be in the 50s before the system arrives.
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The problem is, it’s much colder now and getting sub freezing at night. It would take a good bit of heating, sun, and time to warm the ground to a sufficient depth to keep the ground above freezing long enough to avoid ice issues. In addition, power lines and trees don’t have nearly the thermal mass the ground does and they’ll cool off rapidly.
 
Richardjacks said:
The key to this forecast is the depth of the cold air (sub freezing). If it’s deep enough, it will be snow or more likely sleet with a lot less power outages but still hazardous roads. The process for freezing rain is very complicated when the temps are close to freezing near the ground. As the rain freezes, latent heat is released which could cause the temps to rise a degree or two, but as it melts, heat is absorbed possibly causing the temps to drop again. In near/close margin situations freezing rain and ice secretion are complicated processes and difficult to forecast and can change quickly based on rain intensity and cold air advection near the ground.

Also this looks like a strictly overrunning event with no instability or convective elements. I remember an example or two when there was some lightening/convection and mixing where some of the warmer air aloft was actually mixed down causing near ground temps to temporarily warm melting some of the ice, improving conditions, that doesn’t seem to be the case since it’s all overrunning/isentropic lift.
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As someone who has lived through two crippling ice storms, I'll take sleet or sn anyday of the week and twice on Sunday.
 
Euro and GFS have almost completely flipped for snow totals in N MS, AL, and GA. (I'm using College of Dupage's website, since I'm not on my home computer currently).

Not sure I believe the Euro's depiction; Assuming that it's just a bad run. Would love to hear ya'lls take on it, though.

Euro (06z Yesterday is on top, recent 06z is below.
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GFS
(06z Yesterday is above, recent 06z is below)
download (3).png
download (2).png
 
I like the current model trend towards the GFS with more snow across North MS into Alabama. It was what I was hoping for and I hope it continues. Though at this point we are still at a crossroads with: Is it A. Snowstorm or B. Ice Storm
 
Chris3024 said:
I remember it a little as I was 5 years old. Most of my memories from it include the sledding and being stuck at home for a while. I don't really remember or understood the other impacts.
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It was a historic and bad enough event that at least once in every winter storm in the south, someone brings it up and asks if "this one will be as bad as March 93". LOL. I was 21. We were without power for 10 days with no heat and only a Coleman camping stove to cook on. It was a life threatening and miserable event that I hope no one ever has to go through again.
 
Atomz said:
Euro and GFS have almost completely flipped for snow totals in N MS, AL, and GA. (I'm using College of Dupage's website, since I'm not on my home computer currently).

Not sure I believe the Euro's depiction; Assuming that it's just a bad run. Would love to hear ya'lls take on it, though.

Euro (06z Yesterday is on top, recent 06z is below.


GFS
(06z Yesterday is above, recent 06z is below)
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I'd say they both trended colder.
 
Blountwolf said:
I'd say they both trended colder.
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Main difference is depth of sub freezing temps which will dictate precipitation type. I will say in this kind of setup I would expect to see colder air aloft but it depends on eventual track of surface low, if it’s further to the south, the cold air won’t be as shallow and there will be more snow.
 
Hey i’m in Senoia too, and this one’s got me real nervous. I just pulled my generator out of the shed can’t get it cranked let’s just hope it’s not as bad as some are saying.
 
Casie said:
It was a historic and bad enough event that at least once in every winter storm in the south, someone brings it up and asks if "this one will be as bad as March 93". LOL. I was 21. We were without power for 10 days with no heat and only a Coleman camping stove to cook on. It was a life threatening and miserable event that I hope no one ever has to go through again.
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93 was rough! I got all gas appliances in my new house after the 93 storm.
 
If you guys actually get 12+ inches followed by a week of below freezing temps it'll be snowmaggedon. You don't have any snow plows! Your only hope is all the people from up north who are gonna come down to get paid 10 times their normal rates lol. I wouldn't be surprised if this shuts some metros down for up to 2 weeks. I don't remember a time Memphis or Nashville have gotten 10 inches or more in the last 30 years.
 
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