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January 23-25th Winter Wx

i know this has already been mentioned a few times, but it bears repeating -- of how unusual it is for this many models to be in this much general agreement this far out that a winter storm is coming 5+ days out (and over 48 hours now of all models showing the same general idea).

also, this doesn't look like your typical 1-2" snow amounts where somebody's backyard might get 4", and where ice accumulations are under a quarter inch... QPFs are an order of magnitude higher.

was debating driving from birmingham to tunica, ms friday night for the weekend but tunica looks dicey at best... seems like the only question there is will they get a ton of ice, a ton of snow, or both.
 
I'm more convinced on major ice storm occurring than a big snow event at least for North MS thru Georgia. There hasn't been much change in Euro nor Canadian except placement of heaviest freezing rain. Only the GFS continues to show more snow. I'm still hopeful though for a big turnaround towards snow
 
Blountwolf said:
18ZGFES - in general, a mess is very much still expected.
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Love how none of these are good solutions - just some that are more bad, and some that are less bad.
JPWX said:
I'm more convinced on major ice storm occurring than a big snow event at least for North MS thru Georgia.
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The potential areal coverage strikes me as particularly impressive. A very elongated belt of frozen precip in the Deep South isn't too common.
 
Looking at the 12z Canadian temperature output for Tupelo and Aberdeen. While it might be overdone a little bit on such cold temperatures early next week, it may not be that far off especially if we get the significant accumulations of snow and/or ice.

Last time that Tupelo, MS saw a low temperature below 0 in January was 1985
Last time that Aberdeen, MS saw a low temperature below 0 in January was 1966
 

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JPWX said:
Looking at the 12z Canadian temperature output for Tupelo and Aberdeen. While it might be overdone a little bit on such cold temperatures early next week, it may not be that far off especially if we get the significant accumulations of snow and/or ice.

Last time that Tupelo, MS saw a low temperature below 0 in January was 1985
Last time that Aberdeen, MS saw a low temperature below 0 in January was 1966
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where can i go to get these temperature charts?
 
JPWX said:
Looking at the 12z Canadian temperature output for Tupelo and Aberdeen. While it might be overdone a little bit on such cold temperatures early next week, it may not be that far off especially if we get the significant accumulations of snow and/or ice.

Last time that Tupelo, MS saw a low temperature below 0 in January was 1985
Last time that Aberdeen, MS saw a low temperature below 0 in January was 1966
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The possibility of prolonged cold temperatures worries me. While ice sublimates, it tends to do so slower than snow. We had a mild ice storm a year or two ago, and it took several days for the ice to really melt, even with temperatures above freezing. The Euro shows us staying cold, getting a bit above freezing in the day but well below freezing at night, for much of northern MS/AL/GA through this Friday, while the GFS suggests much of the area will be sat in freezing to very cold temperatures from Saturday until next Wednesday.
 
Aaaand the 00z GFS now lines up with the Euro with 1-1.5" freezing rain totals across north AL... that is not the consensus we would prefer

On the list of things I would prefer to not deal with... this!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh84-156.gif

I hate how classic the simulated soundings are over a large area for a long time, definitely a very characteristic freezing rain profile for like, a day and a half

gfs_2026012000_108_32.5--88.5.png
 
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LMBO. The UK, Canadian, and Australia model had low mid 60s and rain for Wedowee on Saturday. The EURO, GFS, and ICON had a severe ice storm.
 
Clicked on twc weather.com forecast for Memphis Jackson tn area , saying for now 11 to 18 inches of snow this weekend . That’s just To much snow . Sure there will be some sleet mixed in.
 
We have a problem guys.... This is snow totals but most of that will be freezing rain/sleet with a little snow in the back end for central and north Alabama. I've never seen anything like this while looking at the weather for 15 years.* Also attached the cod metrology ice totals.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh84-132.gifScreenshot_2026-01-20-04-14-15-15_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
Screenshot_2026-01-20-04-23-42-80_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
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Information graphic from NWS Birmingham. Basically hashes out what has been said - high confidence in a winter storm for the northern halves of MS/AL/GA, but not yet clear exactly where, when and how each type of precipitation will impact. That said, the confidence is truly impressive, and I don't recall such a level of confidence at this time frame for a major winter storm here in recent memory.
1768910983067.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
We have a problem guys.... This is snow totals but most of that will be freezing rain/sleet with a little snow in the back end for central and north Alabama. I've never seen anything like this while looking at the weather for 15 years.* Also attached the cod metrology ice totals.

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Im in Senoia Ga, latest runs are leaning more towards crippling ice where Im at. Showed historic amounts of snow when I checked models the last 2 days. Im curious your thoughts on how this will play out for my area. I dont have in depth access to these models, I just pay attention to Pivotal, tidbits, nws and have a basic weatherbell plan. Why does tidbits GFS always show drastically higher 10:1 snowfall than other sites? Thanks for your input!
 
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