CheeselandSkies
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Weak CAPE (not in itself a deal-breaker), but also some capping and mediocre lapse rates. Updrafts would probably get ripped apart by that speed shear before they can become established.
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Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread
- Thread starter Kory
- Start date
Weak CAPE (not in itself a deal-breaker), but also some capping and mediocre lapse rates. Updrafts would probably get ripped apart by that speed shear before they can become established.
Klcurtis012
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- Jackson TN
Can anyone give me a round-about tor con for the Jackson, TN area?
GA Stormchaser
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I thought the STP took CAPE and the cap into account as part of the algorithm, as well as a number of other sheer factors.
Kory
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It does.
MikeP
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Starting to really light up out west. Will be interesting to see how things progress eastward. Gradient winds already evident here in BHM.
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- Huntsville, AL
I think you're better off getting tor:con from the weather channel. Many users here find it too vague to be useful. In fact we used to have a thread all about it and it often comes up every big event. Some like it, some don't. Stick with SPC parameters and forget about tor:con or we're going to get a whole big thing going
. I'll give you a 5 to humor you though. Not that it means much.FEARLESS
Member
Right now at 0700 cst the line of storms with embedded cells with probability will be in your area. Torcon of four for northern ms and al right below you.
Justin Hindman
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It’s been pretty tamed out west so far, wonder if it will crank up late
MikeP
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- Crestwood South, Bham
So no current TOR warnings out west atm. That's good. Do wonder what kind of winds they're getting though.....
Parysa
Member
My sister is just outside Plano. She said they barely got anything and winds weren't bad.
MattW
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Seems to be a split on the HRRR vs the NAM 3km for Atlanta. HRRR keeps a tornado threat, the NAM is a bit quieter, but still showing some tornado potential.
Bama Ravens
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STP on the HRRR is straight up nasty.
Equus
Member
Sitting right here near the consensus bull's-eye like
From the Perry Memorial Weather Station, the Temperature is currently 63.5 with a dewpoint of 62. Today's High was 64.6. Max wind gust so far is at 25.1 mph ESE. 0 inches of rainfall at this time.
Casie
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bwalk
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I agree. That is extremely concerning. I think that puts Bham in the bullseye if those parameters hold as the system moves East. (hypothetically speaking)
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- Huntsville, AL
I would like to see some run-run consistency, because that is insanely high. I hope that doesn't come to fruition.
GA Stormchaser
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One difference in the models is the projected dewpoints. HRRR is higher, so that may be part of the difference. I haven't gone back to compare what was forecasted today vs the actuals. Not sure which model may be better on that parameter.
jmills
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- Troy, AL/Montevallo, AL
Something to note is that HRRR is running a couple of degrees cool on surface temps, esp over Alabama. With as cold as the upper levels are, a difference of a couple degrees could make a fairly large impact.
