• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Hurricane Isaias

Shear, dry air ingestion at the mid levels, and an increasingly hostile environment. Tough road, Isaias. I think we're likely all really glad it is, though. One MAJOR exception - the TCHP. There's some deep hot water along the way too.

Shear
1791462384875.png

Mid Level WV
1791462881771.png

24hr Shear tendency
1791463033661.png

Path over TCHP.
1791464029056.png


We'll see what wins the fight.

Regardless - big impacts coming, this is a big wind field, and there will be a lot of water in motion.
 
Blountwolf said:
Shear, dry air ingestion at the mid levels, and an increasingly hostile environment. Tough road, Isaias. I think we're likely all really glad it is, though. One MAJOR exception - the TCHP. There's some deep hot water along the way too.
Click to expand...

There's a second exception, and it is in part related to the exception you mentioned - it seems like every storm over the last few years ends up overperforming.

I'm not wishcasting a CAT 5 monster, but if this thing blows up to a strong CAT 3 or even a weak CAT 4 before the shear starts ripping it apart, I wouldn't be shocked.

That is some strong shear though.
 
Mike S said:
There's a second exception, and it is in part related to the exception you mentioned - it seems like every storm over the last few years ends up overperforming.

I'm not wishcasting a CAT 5 monster, but if this thing blows up to a strong CAT 3 or even a weak CAT 4 before the shear starts ripping it apart, I wouldn't be shocked.

That is some strong shear though.
Click to expand...
Agreed. The hot TCHP pool has me worried, TBH. That is deep fuel, and a lot of it. Deep ocean heat content is the reason storms are overperforming, IMO, and this will be the deepest it has passed over. Fingers crossed that shear wins. I am really hoping it does, because if the upper level winds just vent it instead of tearing it apart, we may be in real trouble.

Speaking of complex variables/interactions - did you see what Simon did overnight?
1791466867849.png
 
Last edited:
06Z globals are Mobile Bay to the AL/FL line. Pretty good agreement. Hurricane models same area, with HMON the furthest east barely into Florida. I note that all of them are 950s before landfall, even HAFS-A and B. Not liking that agreement at all.
 
Im not sure how this will rank on inland damage from wind gusts, but how does this look to yall? I remember my dad always talking about opal and the inland effects it had here in birmgiham with trees down. What do yall think of wind damage in birmingham for this system.
 
I don’t think wind will be particularly severe with this system. Rain and surge will be more impactful at landfall since most of the core may be blown apart by landfall.
UncleJuJu98 said:
Im not sure how this will rank on inland damage from wind gusts, but how does this look to yall? I remember my dad always talking about opal and the inland effects it had here in birmgiham with trees down. What do yall think of wind damage in birmingham for this system.
Click to expand...
 
Blountwolf said:
06Z globals are Mobile Bay to the AL/FL line. Pretty good agreement. Hurricane models same area, with HMON the furthest east barely into Florida. I note that all of them are 950s before landfall, even HAFS-A and B. Not liking that agreement at all.
Click to expand...

None of these solutions are great, but the Euro seems to take Isaias over Dauphin Island and into Mobile Bay. I don't know anything about that area, but all of that water pushing into the Bay can't be good.
 
Pretty much all the TC models are honed in on the AL/FL line, with front-right quadrant centered on Pensacola, FL. 06Z HWRF given as example. Pretty gnarly-looking core, with some right-side supercell activity over the inner Panhandle.
1791468410970.png
 
Clancy said:
Pretty much all the TC models are honed in on the AL/FL line, with front-right quadrant centered on Pensacola, FL. 06Z HWRF given as example. Pretty gnarly-looking core, with some right-side supercell activity over the inner Panhandle.
Click to expand...
Yep, and 3 hours earlier... So a big water dome coming with it. Not one to ride out on a barrier island, IMO. This size and strength will... relocate some things.
1791469482932.png
 
Mike S said:
None of these solutions are great, but the Euro seems to take Isaias over Dauphin Island and into Mobile Bay. I don't know anything about that area, but all of that water pushing into the Bay can't be good.
Click to expand...
Yeah, we want it to land east of the bay, not west. West pushes the surge up the bay and traps it.
 
N0mz said:
I don’t think wind will be particularly severe with this system. Rain and surge will be more impactful at landfall since most of the core may be blown apart by landfall.
Click to expand...
I hope you're right. NWS is being more cautious on that. Rain and surge will be big, yes. The forecast surge (5 to 7 feet above ground, including Mobile Bay) is the most life-threatening part. But wind isn't a minor piece. The hurricane center forecasts about 100 mph at landfall. Shear may weaken it some, but they say it should remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, with its wind field expanding and moving fast enough to push damaging gusts well inland. NWS Mobile's local statement calls for "extensive" wind impacts across southwest and parts of south central Alabama: considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, many large trees snapped or uprooted, mobile homes destroyed, large areas without power. Here in central Alabama, NWS Birmingham is forecasting gusts of 40 to 50 mph, enough for downed trees and power lines. Less severe than the coast, but not harmless.
 
Shear is still stout, but it's no longer increasing north of Isaias along the track, and decreasing compared to yesterday along the NW Gulf coast.
1791476848496.png
 
Last edited:
Blountwolf said:
Shear is still stout, but it's no longer increasing north of Isaias along the track, and decreasing compared to yesterday along the NW Gulf coast.
View attachment 55193
Click to expand...
Looking back on model outputs, they've been fairly consistent in showing a small quiet patch in winds ahead of a compact trough that seems to more or less give Isaiah the perfect opening as it approaches the AL/FL area. Guessing that's what's been lending the NHC confidence in intensification despite current shear.
1791477054957.png
 
Clancy said:
Looking back on model outputs, they've been fairly consistent in showing a small quiet patch in winds ahead of a compact trough that seems to more or less give Isaiah the perfect opening as it approaches the AL/FL area. Guessing that's what's been lending the NHC confidence in intensification despite current shear.
Click to expand...

It may end up threading the needle between the departing trough and the incoming jet streak.

Is that a hint of an eye starting to form?

gempak.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top