I'm not confident we have the computing power or experience to model this. I expect this to be an almost unforecastable event. That's not a statement I like to make - as a huge fan of meteorology and all the science behind it that I totally believe in, I see the forecast issue as just that there are an overwhelming amount of variables for the systems to process with two systems interacting. We just haven't seen enough to be confident in the science behind the binary interaction. I am very hopeful the weak and totally off-shore scenarios verify, but if I lived on the east coast from FL to VA, I would not be letting my guard down. My personal gut feeling is that if it spins, it wins near the gulf stream. I expect Imelda to become a hurricane off the FL coast, myself. I'll be thrilled to be wrong on that though. Beyond that, the scenario where Imelda stalls from the counter-clockwise fujiwhara pull seems realistic, but is SUCH a close call that it's going to be nerve wracking. The earlier runs we saw where Imelda loops through the Carolinas before reemerging seems as realistic of a scenario to me as the hard right turn - the same fujiwhara reaction, just over a larger area. That was modeled well before Humberto was a 5 though, so likely the models now are assuming total dominance of Humberto in the area. It's fascinating to watch it all.
