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Hurricane Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto

Some more thoughts - last night before I turned in I noticed a big blowup of convection on the south side of Cuba I thought was interesting.
Blountwolf said:
The amount and intensity of the convection south of Cuba is surprising me.
View attachment 46769
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Digging deeper into that, I think what was happening (and to some extent still is) is that dry air was being wrapped around Cuba by Imelda (09L), then mixing with moist Caribbean air causing convection, then land creates some orographic lift and it dumps over the mountains as it gets pulled back north. A Jamaican mixing bowl, if you will. Cool science to nerd out to.

1759078213774.png

That dry air being entrained may very well be what limits Imelda's intensification moving north, assuming she ever decides to leave the Bahamas.
 
We have Tropical Storm Imelda after flight-level winds of 46 kts were measured by recon

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281749
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



 
Humberto has the trochoidal wobbles.
 
Looking at the output from the HRRR and NAMNST simulated reflectivity, it's neat to see the feeder bands from Imelda get "bent" towards and then taken by Humberto as they begin to interact. Will be something to watch for that will signal the interaction is ongoing and a turn is imminent.

1759091742600.png
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
Just checking in to say that I think this may be the first time on record that a Category Five was overshadowed by a TD (or TS as the case may now be). Lol
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I mean yeah, but it's sort of like watching to see how big the mouse grows before it's fed to the snake.

IJS.
 
Morning first look - Imelda builds a core, Humberto tries to finish an EWRC and appears to have a disrupted core.
1759152502787.png
 
Upper level winds:
1759153443350.png

A clean EWRC needs a symmetric exhaust.
 
I've hesitated to mention this, as I am loath to disagree with large amounts of computing power, but I am still not convinced that Humberto is going to be the dominant system in this interaction. Imelda is big, has stronger convection, has jet streak venting as an ally, is sitting over hotter SSTs and deeper TCHP, is not experiencing nasty upper level shear, etc etc.. If Humberto’s core remains disrupted by shear and interaction, Imelda’s larger sized circulation can exert disproportionate control, pulling the mutual axis of spin closer to herself. That raises the chance of Imelda anchoring the Fujiwhara pivot and Humberto bending around her, not the other way around. Not going to call that a forecast, but a concern.
 
Humberto is aborting the EWRC. Looks to be trying to restack a smaller eye.
 
Little side note here, don't think I've ever seen wind speed probs quite like this before... Super interesting stuff.
Screenshot 2025-09-29 at 1.43.20 PM.png
 
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