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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Erin

Hurricane Erin

wx_guy said:
Recon just found 919 mb extrapolated down to 917 mb, with flight-level winds of 180 mph. Pretty sure this is a Cat 5.
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Sub-920? Still deepening at an extraordinary rate. I bet it’ll be sub-915 by 3 pm.
 
Atlantic said:
Sub-920? Still deepening at an extraordinary rate. I bet it’ll be sub-915 by 3 pm.
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It may be 11 or a little after before the other plane gets a center intersection, so I think the NHC will have to decide based on information already out there. If I were them, I'd conservatively put the pressure at 920 mb and put winds at 160 mph.
 
tornado examiner said:
How soon is it likely to undergo an EWRC? I’d say that it may do that tonight. Or tomorrow morning.
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I haven’t heard anyone discussing formation of concentric/secondary eyewalls yet, so I’m guessing it’s not on the table right now. It’s gonna keep deepening and deepening I think, wouldn’t be surprised to see a 180+ mph sub 900 mb hurricane here. This is a very similar intensification rate to Milton from last year I think.
 
wx_guy said:
Recon just found 919 mb extrapolated down to 917 mb, with flight-level winds of 180 mph. Pretty sure this is a Cat 5.
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Serious nail biter here. That 180 mph was recorded at 750mb, which rounds down to basically the very top of C4. Whether the NHC goes 155 or 160 will be decided within the next 30 minutes.
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
Serious nail biter here. That 180 mph was recorded at 750mb, which rounds down to basically the very top of C4. Whether the NHC goes 155 or 160 will be decided within the next 30 minutes.
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Looks like you're right, they opted for 923 mb and 155 mph, top-end Cat 4. The advisory is out now.
 
Little side note: Where can I get satellite gifs of this thing in the past couple hours or so to show to my friends? This storm is absolutely blowing my mind right now and I genuinely believe a sub-900 mb monster is on the table here. Considering its location, I believe it would be the first one to go sub-900 anywhere close to this area if it does.

EDIT: I would like to see imagery of the concentric eyewalls on radar, I’ll back off a bit if that’s the case.
 
slenker said:
Little side note: Where can I get satellite gifs of this thing in the past couple hours or so to show to my friends? This storm is absolutely blowing my mind right now and I genuinely believe a sub-900 mb monster is on the table here. Considering its location, I believe it would be the first one to go sub-900 anywhere close to this area if it does.

EDIT: I would like to see imagery of the concentric eyewalls on radar, I’ll back off a bit if that’s the case.
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir


it gives you the ability to choose different satellite products and to make a gif out of it.
 
Category 5 in the forecast!
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 19.7N 62.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 20.1N 64.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.0N 66.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 22.3N 68.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 23.5N 69.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 24.9N 70.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 26.4N 70.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 30.6N 70.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 35.7N 66.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
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majorhurricane1703 said:
Wow that’s really intense. Keep us up to date how it is doing with motion with respect to the NHC track if you don’t mind. I’m curious to see just how far west it can get.
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My tool that I developed doesn't go off advisory times, it goes off best track data, so I'll wait until 2-3PM when the next best track update comes out to show how it's doing in relation to the NHC Cones.
 
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