wx_guy
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You beat me to it haha lol
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Hurricane Hurricane Beryl
- Thread starter Casuarina Head
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Hurricane Cheat Codes:
←←←←[SELECT]↑↑[SELECT]← = Bypass Shear (used by Wilma, Beryl)
←←↓[SELECT][START]↑↓↓ = Lower Central Pressure (used by Katrina, Camille and others)
↑→→↑↑↓ = Form in Unusual Location (used by Vince, Beryl and others)
←→[START]→→↑↑↑ = Form Mini Swirls (used by Andrew, Iniki and Beryl)
[START][START]↑←↓→[START][START]↑↑↓↓↑←↓→[START] = Super Ultra Mega Cheat (used by Beryl, Katrina, Dorian, Camille and others)
wx_guy
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At this point, I think there's a very real chance it stays a major hurricane all the way through the Caribbean. I know it's not supposed to happen...but if I were a betting person right now...
Textbook long-tracker Cape Verde type hurricane. (It’s July)
wx_guy
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So Beryl has been at full-force shear already. Just fingers crossed that it'll eventually wear it down...
I see Beryl has also developed it's side show Bob lobe.
That seems to have been a trend in recent years with these major hurricanes.
That seems to have been a trend in recent years with these major hurricanes.
10pm Update is in. Basically, Beryl says I'M NOT WEAKENING!!!!
TornadoFan
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locomusic01
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Let us all hope this isn't the season a hurricane discovers ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → [ B] [A] [Start]
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A much more ragged look to Beryl this morning, but it's not weakening enough in time to give Jamaica much relief. 
125 miles from Kingston.
952mb, still an impressive 145mph storm.
125 miles from Kingston.952mb, still an impressive 145mph storm.
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The webcam at Royal Jamaica yacht club is running. Should be interesting to watch as Beryl passes (hopefully far enough south of the island to avoid the worst of it).
www.webcamtaxi.com
Royal Jamaica Yacht Club
The Royal Jamaica Yacht Club live webcam, located along the scenic Palisadoes strip, offers captivating views of the club itself, Kingston Harbour, and the city, all framed by the stunning blue mountains. This historic yacht club, founded in 1884 in Kingston, Surrey County,...
www.webcamtaxi.com
Side show Bob Blob still tagging alongA much more ragged look to Beryl this morning, but it's not weakening enough in time to give Jamaica much relief.
952mb, still an impressive 145mph storm.
View attachment 29005
Some light reading on shear...
"When large-scale vertical shears are applied to mature tropical cyclones, the storms quickly develop wavenumber one asymmetries with upward motion and rainfall concentrated on the left side of the shear vector looking downshear, in agreement with earlier studies. The asymmetries develop due to the storm's response to imbalances caused by the shear. The storms in shear weaken with time and eventually reach an approximate steady-state intensity that is well below their theoretical maximum potential intensity. As expected, the magnitude of the weakening increases with increasing shear. All of the storms experience time lags between the imposition of the large-scale shear and the resulting rise in the minimum central pressure. While the lag is at most a few hours when the storm is placed in very strong (15 m s−1) shear, storms in weaker shears experience much longer lag times, with the 5 m s−1 shear case showing no signs of weakening until more than 36 h after the shear is applied. These lags suggest that the storm intensity is to some degree predictable from observations of large-scale shear changes. In all cases both the development of the asymmetries in core structure and the subsequent weakening of the storm occur before any resolvable tilt of the storm's vertical axis occurs."
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/129/9/1520-0493_2001_129_2249_eovwso_2.0.co_2.xml
In particular, the lag in the effects of shear is not something I was aware of - I figured the effects of shear were effectively instant.
"When large-scale vertical shears are applied to mature tropical cyclones, the storms quickly develop wavenumber one asymmetries with upward motion and rainfall concentrated on the left side of the shear vector looking downshear, in agreement with earlier studies. The asymmetries develop due to the storm's response to imbalances caused by the shear. The storms in shear weaken with time and eventually reach an approximate steady-state intensity that is well below their theoretical maximum potential intensity. As expected, the magnitude of the weakening increases with increasing shear. All of the storms experience time lags between the imposition of the large-scale shear and the resulting rise in the minimum central pressure. While the lag is at most a few hours when the storm is placed in very strong (15 m s−1) shear, storms in weaker shears experience much longer lag times, with the 5 m s−1 shear case showing no signs of weakening until more than 36 h after the shear is applied. These lags suggest that the storm intensity is to some degree predictable from observations of large-scale shear changes. In all cases both the development of the asymmetries in core structure and the subsequent weakening of the storm occur before any resolvable tilt of the storm's vertical axis occurs."
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/129/9/1520-0493_2001_129_2249_eovwso_2.0.co_2.xml
In particular, the lag in the effects of shear is not something I was aware of - I figured the effects of shear were effectively instant.
Code:
Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024
Westerly shear is having an effect on Beryl this morning, as the eye
has all but disappeared in satellite imagery and the cloud pattern
has become ragged and elongated from southwest to northeast.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 954 mb.
However, the Air Force plane measured flight-level winds of 139 kt
at 700 mb, while the NOAA plane measured 138-kt winds at 750 mb.
These winds support surface winds of 120-125 kt, and based on this
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt.
The initial motion is now 285/16. A strong mid-level ridge centered
over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl
generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next
couple of days or so. The motion should bring the center near or
just south of Jamaica during the next 6-12 h and south of the Cayman
Islands tonight. After that, the system should reach the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in 36-48 h and emerge over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico by 60 h. Once over the Gulf, there remains a sizable
amount of spread in the track guidance, with the GFS and HWRF
showing a more northerly motion toward the Texas coast while the
ECMWF and UKMET show a more westerly motion toward the coast of
Mexico. This part of the track forecast lies near the consensus
models in the middle of the guidance envelope, and overall there are
no significant changes to the forecast from the previous advisory.
While there is some disagreement in how much shear Beryl will
encounter before reaching Yucatan, the intensity guidance expects
enough shear that it agrees on steady weakening. The official
forecast follows this and is at the high end of the guidance
envelope. Beryl should weaken more while over Yucatan, then slowly
re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico in a somewhat more favorable
environment. The intensity forecast again calls for the cyclone to
regain hurricane strength before it reaches the western Gulf coast,
followed by weakening after landfall.- Messages
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Things not looking too spicy in Jamaica in Kingston at the moment, at least looking at the cam from the yacht club. Fingers crossed that continues. Happy to continue to see a raggedly looking Beryl.
One thing that is worrying me is the persistent deep convection bubbling near the center. And looks like the center is gonna stay offshore of Jamaica which might lead to intensification again once passed the island. I'm still also not buying the due west movement yet either into the Yucatan. Yeah it's being affected by shear, but not to the extent most expected
