Hurricane Hurricane Beryl

[JPWX]

The shear tendency over the last 24 has been for shear to be falling SW of Beryl.

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This is another one of those data sets that you can time step through in 3 hour increments and see some interesting things.

North Atlantic - 24hr Shear Tendency - Latest Available - Storm Zoom

That's very telling

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Blountwolf]

The Caymans are going to have a long night/morning.

 

[JPWX]

Well, NHC still sticking to Beryl weakening and making landfall on the Yucatan. IDK though.

 

[Blountwolf]

I hope they are right, I really do. Smart fellows - they usually are. I'm pretty sure they are right - it would have to deviate a lot to shoot through the channel without a landfall. I'm going with a brief northern Yucatan landfall, near Cancun though, I think it's going to be somewhat further north than the official track.

 

[JPWX]

Just FYI. My post above was not criticizing NHC, but just trying to think ahead of what Beryl may or may not do.

 

[TH2002]

Just FYI. My post above was not criticizing NHC, but just trying to think ahead of what Beryl may or may not do.

Just another FYI, you have every right to *constructively* criticize the NHC, and since you're an actual meteorologist your opinion actually holds some water.

Now, no one should non-constructively criticize any branch of weather forecasting on this site, but on other certain sites such screeching is welcome.

 

[Clancy]

Just another FYI, you have every right to *constructively* criticize the NHC, and since you're an actual meteorologist your opinion actually holds some water.

Now, no one should non-constructively criticize any branch of weather forecasting on this site, but on other certain sites such screeching is welcome.

And I mean, at this point, I think everyone here is more just mouth agape at Beryl continuing to tread her own path than anything else. It has truly been something to behold.

 

[JPWX]

10pm update: Maintains 130mph category 4 and there's been a noticeable shift north and a little east in the cone (particularly after it comes off the Yucatan). This is where I'm going to differ with NHC. They say in their discussion that
"Beryl is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly
shear, and the models suggest that the shear will either hold
steady or increase a little during the next couple of days. These
less favorable winds aloft combined with some intrusions of dry air
should cause weakening."

The dust, like shear, is being pushed west by Beryl. Like I said before, I'm just not convinced that this will impact Beryl significantly prior to it reaching the Yucatan.

 

[Blountwolf]

And I mean, at this point, I think everyone here is more just mouth agape at Beryl continuing to tread her own path than anything else. It has truly been something to behold.

Right? That she keeps restacking that core after it gets repeatedly shredded is a storm behavior I'm not sure we've seen many times before. This is not a happy environment for a storm to persist like this, but still she chugs along. Worst environment for shear she's been in so far, and again it looks like she's restacking that core with deep convection.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Blountwolf]

Still thinking between Cozumel and Cancun for a brief Yucutan landfall, but the deviation to a landfall-free Yucatan channel run doesn't seem as far fetched as it did. Looks to me like the shear actually has backed off some. Let's hope there's still enough to keep her somewhat in check. Absolute bathwater she is passing over - high ssts and deep heat.

 

[TornadoFan]

.....

 

[JPWX]

.....

I was just fixing to make that comment.

 

[Blountwolf]

Still some wrapping up to do on the SE side - new eyewall is building though, now that it is all is back under convection. Big towers firing. Wishing I saw more to stop it - she does seem to be reorganizing well again.

 

[JPWX]

I have just saved my 100th satellite image of Beryl since it's formation

 

[TornadoFan]

Can we not?

 

[Blountwolf]

Another one of those time comparisons. 2 hours ago vs. now.


Much more symmetrical CDO. But that's how's she's done - tears apart, rebuilds, tears apart, rebuilds...

 

[JPWX]

Beryl vs. dry air/shear

 

[JBishopwx]

And somehow NHC winds are down to 110mph from 115.