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Archive Historic Harvey (Tropical Depression)

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Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 61.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

Interests elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of Harvey.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 61.3 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the Windward
Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea today and move into the
central Caribbean Sea on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Fort-de-France, Martinique, recently reported a
wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h), while Hewanorra International
Airport on St. Lucia recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph
(69 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1005 mb
(29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area
at this time. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area today.

RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts across parts of the
Leeward and Windward Islands from Guadeloupe southward to Grenada.
These additional rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
200 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 62.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France had discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Martinique.

The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.

The Government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of Harvey.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 62.1 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move away from the
Windward Islands and through the eastern Caribbean Sea this
afternoon and tonight. It should then move into the central
Caribbean Sea on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Locally gusty winds across the Windward Islands should
diminish this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts across parts of the
Leeward and Windward Islands from Guadeloupe southward to Grenada.
These additional rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central American and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and through the central Caribbean Sea
Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 64.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central America and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 64.1 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). An even faster
motion toward the west is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY IN THE ABC ISLANDS FROM HARVEY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 65.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central America and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 65.9 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey will move across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN
YESTERDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 68.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be
required for portions of these areas later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western
Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is currently poorly organized,
and only slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
data and data from NOAA buoy 42059 is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire,
and Curacao.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be
required for portions of these areas tonight.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days,
and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Remnants Of Harvey Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 71.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of the
remnants of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Harvey were located near
latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.8 West. The tropical wave
associated with Harvey's remnants is moving quickly toward the west
near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion will continue for the
next day or two. The remnants are expected to move westward across
the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday and across the western Caribbean
Sea toward Central America on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs or if tropical
cyclone watches or warnings are required for land areas. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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presteezywx

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Ex Harvey is looking rather impressive right now. Beginning to develop some great outflow again. Wind shear is low. Recon investigating now.
 

Mike S

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recon found that Harvey didn't come back from the dead, but I suppose its worth keeping an eye on.
 

Mike S

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Let's just go ahead and resticky this thing.....
1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 

Tyler Penland

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Euro/GFS both redevelop and make landfall down near the TX/MX border, then it gets caught up and swept east with another tropical system offshore. Lots of wet weather coming to the SE if that's true.
 

Brent

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Ummm GFS just raised the stakes

gfs_mslp_wind_scus_17.png
 

akt1985

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I guess it's too early to tell if Harvey will be as bad as Ike in Texas. At least with Ike, although the surge was bad, at least the winds held steady from when it entered the Gulf to right at landfall in Galveston.
 

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Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from
Port Mansfield to High Island.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from north
of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from
the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield and from north of
San Luis Pass to High Island.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of Mexico from Boca De Catan to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system for possible watches this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 92.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
a track toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected for the
next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be approaching
the Texas coast late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey
could become a hurricane on Friday.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to
9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the
rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could
cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY MOVING LITTLE BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system for possible watches this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 92.5 West. The
depression has been nearly stationary for the past few hours, but
is expected to resume a motion toward the northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h) later today. A track toward the northwest or
north-northwest is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast
track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Harvey could become a hurricane on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to
9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the
rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could
cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS FOR THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).
A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track,
Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Harvey could become a hurricane on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to
9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the
rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could
cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Continue reading...
 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT HARVEY HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 92.5W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 92.5 West. The
depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 2 mph (4
km/h). A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster
forward speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast
track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Harvey could become a tropical storm later tonight
and a hurricane on Friday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data and Mexican surface observations is 1003 mb
(29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to
9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the
rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could
cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.6W
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Warnings will likely be required for portions of the watch area
Thursday morning. In addition, interests in southwestern
Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 92.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track,
Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday or Friday
night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Harvey could become a tropical storm later tonight or
Thursday and a hurricane Friday or Friday night.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Wednesday, with
heavy rainfall beginning Friday. During the same time period Harvey
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches
along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and
eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey
may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Continue reading...
 

akt1985

Member
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Location
Madison, Alabama
It will be interesting to see if Harvey is as bad as Allison was in 2001. The expected rainfall totals are frightening for southeast Texas.
 
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