Archive Historic Harvey (Tropical Depression) (3 Viewers)


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Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND HARVEY A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 465 MI...740 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Warnings will likely be required for portions of the watch area
this morning. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey
was located by NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes near
latitude 22.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Harvey is now moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A track toward the
northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected
for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be
approaching the Texas coast on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45
mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a
a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hurricane Hunter planes was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Wednesday, with
heavy rainfall beginning Friday. During the same time period Harvey
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches
along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and
eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey
may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 92.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Port
Mansfield to San Luis Pass.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Port Mansfield south to
the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Port
Mansfield to Matagorda.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Matagorda
to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch has been issued from
south of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Matagorda to High Island
* South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas to Boca de Catan
Mexico.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by reconaissance planes near latitude 23.2 North, longitude
92.8 West. Harvey is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).
A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track,
Harvey will approach the southern Texas coast on Friday.

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft report
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75
km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours and Harvey is expected to become a
hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over the
Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period
Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9
inches along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and
eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey
may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane
warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HARVEY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 93.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by a reconnaissance plane near latitude 23.8 North,
longitude 93.0 West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest
near 10 mph (17 km/h). A track toward the northwest or
north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected for the next
48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the southern
Texas coast on Friday.

An Air Force Reserve aircraft reports that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Harvey is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over the
Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period
Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9
inches along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and
eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey
may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 93.3W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 24.0 North, longitude 93.3 West. Harvey is moving toward
the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, and Harvey's forward speed is
forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on
Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday, and then
stall near the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a
major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 982 mb
(29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to
central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches
extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 10 ft
Sargent to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Mike S

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Uh oh......

...HARVEY QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED...
 

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Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE WITH 80-MPH WINDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained
winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).

A Special Advisory will be issued by 1 PM CDT (1800 UTC) in lieu
of the intermediate advisory to update the intensity forecast.
 

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Special Advisory Number 17...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Corrected for extension of Storm Surge Warning

...HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northeast of San Luis
Pass to High Island Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 93.6
West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and
Harvey's forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the
middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early
Saturday, and then stall near the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to
central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches
extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Continue reading...
 

Beer Belly

Member
Messages
6
Location
Tampa
This thing is rapidly developing. Not good for TX coast. Yesterday was just a threat of a lot of rain, now it will come ashore with high winds as well. I know that the weather service is afraid of "Cry Wolf" syndrome, but this one looks bad. No upper level winds, no dry air to suck in to it; who knows how strong it will get before land fall.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
1,974
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
Really worried about this. We're talking about a potentially Allison-level rainfall event plus Cat 2-3 storm surge. Not good. Glad they've got evac orders underway; I saw that they were using city buses in Corpus Christi to take people to San Antonio, so hopefully that's a sign that public services, government, and forecasters are coordinating well here.
 

akt1985

Member
Messages
553
Location
Madison, Alabama
Really worried about this. We're talking about a potentially Allison-level rainfall event plus Cat 2-3 storm surge. Not good. Glad they've got evac orders underway; I saw that they were using city buses in Corpus Christi to take people to San Antonio, so hopefully that's a sign that public services, government, and forecasters are coordinating well here.
With an Elena type track on top of that.
 

TWBot

TalkWeather Bot
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Messages
486
Location
On a server
000
WTNT34 KNHC 242045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY HEADED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeast of Matagorda to
Sargent Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 93.9 West. Harvey is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected this evening, and Harvey's forward speed is
forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on
Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday. Harvey is
then likely to stall near or just inland of the middle Texas coast
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become
a major hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas
coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data released by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the
same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Continue reading...
 

TWBot

TalkWeather Bot
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486
Location
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WTNT34 KNHC 242359
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 94.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 94.3 West. Harvey is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach
the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or
early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or just inland
of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. While Harvey has changed little in strength
over the past few hours, strengthening is expected to resume during
the next few hours, and Harvey is expected to become a major
hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the
same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Continue reading...
 
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