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Archive Former Hurricane Nate

We have Nate!

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today as the center
of Nate moves across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight
and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly over water to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
Puerto Cabezas recently reported a pressure of 1001 mb
(29.56 inches)
 
I will caution on the strength forecasts for Nate. This has both a high ceiling (for October) and low floor being apart of the Central American Monsoonal Gyre. But the way storms have strengthened this year, I'd be leery if I were along the Gulf Coast. One saving grace could be some slight SW shear from the trough to the west as it enters the Gulf. My family in NOLA should start preps for a hurricane...and I could easily see this becoming a cat 1 in the Gulf.

From my experience when I lived in Louisiana, strengthening storms at landfall at ALWAYS worse than storms maintaining or weakening of the same strength. This one looks to come onshore strengthening....
 
Add insult to injury...coastal flooding is already ongoing along Coastal LA and MS. Persistent, strong SE winds have piled up water leading to 1-2' higher than normal tides. I can't imagine having a hurricane move into that...
 
Hopefully folks along the coast won't take this lightly. We all know how quickly things can change. For me, in ATL, I was happy to see the westward track, although that leaves us on the east side of it now. I am a NOLA native, Katrina displacement, and truly hate seeing them get ANYTHING at all.
 
Not a bad look for the Northern GOM

gulfmex.c.gif
 
TCHP is considerably lower in the northern 1/3 of the gulf than the southern as well.

2017277go.jpg
 
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TCHP is a function of water depth. Basically, its the vertical profile of water down to the 26C isotherm. The northern Gulf is quite shallow comparatively to the Caribbean/Southern and Central Gulf, so it only makes sense why it would be lower. Often why you see storms maintaining or weakening as it approaches the Northern Gulf.

This storm is going to be very compact and will be accelerating NW, then N, and finally NNE upon landfall somewhere from SELA to MS Gulf Coast. Potential for rapid intensification is high given the size of the storm, but also with the competing gyres around the Central American gyre, it could struggle as well. Tricky intensity forecast...
 
...CENTER OF NATE MOVING INTO EASTERN HONDURAS...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 84.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including the northern and
western shores of Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan
New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border eastward to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida. A
Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued west of Morgan City to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana.
 
032354_3day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png


Traffic report for I-65 Saturday

 
Good morning everybody. Checking in from Midtown Mobile. As I look at NOAA map from today at 7 a.m., it looks like Nate has moved a little more east. It also looks like Mobile has now been upgraded to Hurricane Watch status, correct?? Just trying to make sure I'm working the right plan. Thanks and will keep y'all updated when conditions down here start to go bad. Right now it's beautiful and sunny.
 
JS3564MiMo said:
Good morning everybody. Checking in from Midtown Mobile. As I look at NOAA map from today at 7 a.m., it looks like Nate has moved a little more east. It also looks like Mobile has now been upgraded to Hurricane Watch status, correct?? Just trying to make sure I'm working the right plan. Thanks and will keep y'all updated when conditions down here start to go bad. Right now it's beautiful and sunny.
Click to expand...

Technically, Mobile County is still under a Tropical Storm Watch (the Hurricane watch ends at the MS/AL border, even though it looks like Mobile is included on the NHC maps). These are the current watches for MOB's CWA:

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Escambia Coastal,
Escambia Inland, George, Mobile Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Santa
Rosa Coastal, and Stone
- A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Mobile
Central, and Mobile Coastal

If the forecast track shifts eastward even slightly, I wouldn't be surprised if Mobile is upgraded to a Hurricane Watch and eventually a warning.
 
Baldwin County issues voluntary evacuation of the beach areas from Orange Beach to the Ft. Morgan area and all low lying areas.
 
The Alabama coast is now under a Hurricane Warning:

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...AND FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND FROM WEST OF
GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON
COUNTY LINE TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.


 
Well that's escalated quickly. We're currently beautiful in Mobile, but MCPSS has cancelled all extracurricular activities scheduled for Saturday so the Murphy HS band will not be going to competition in Troy.
 
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