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Severe WX Enhanced Weather Threat Alabama, Florida and Georgia 15 Feb 2021

Hearing reports of multiple slabbed homes in Brunswick County, NC per Twitter. Sounds like a bad situation unfolding there.
 
Going by scanner traffic on home locations, the homes are expensive early 2000s wood frame and brick veneer homes surrounding a golf course, so we may be looking at a tornado that slabbed well-constructed homes built to whatever hurricane standards North Carolina has. It's just 3 miles or so inland from Ocean Isle Beach.

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Equus said:
Going by scanner traffic on home locations, the homes are expensive early 2000s wood frame and brick veneer homes surrounding a golf course, so we may be looking at a tornado that slabbed well-constructed homes built to whatever hurricane standards North Carolina has. It's just 3 miles or so inland from Ocean Isle Beach.

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Yeah something tells me these aren’t cookie-cutter, build-em fast and cheap, block foundation homes. I don’t want to get too ahead of myself here, but we could potentially be looking at the first EF4 candidate of 2021.
 
Yep, if the early reports are accurate it'll certainly be a candidate. VROT/TDS would match a violent possibility as well.

This storm was not very well forecast or warned since those cells were expected to be on the cool side of the warm front, with CAMs running way too cool; shear was definitely sufficient for some nasty action

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Looks like the two fatalities reported over the scanner haven’t been confirmed at this time, thankfully. I shouldn’t have posted that information so early on before it was verified, so my apologies.
 
I did just overhear on scanner one black tag, so we have at least one fatality; not sure of the source for a second as of yet
 


We discuss and analyze ratings here a lot, but this probably speaks for itself
 
I'd say EF4 is certainly on the table at least, but given that low lying shrubs around the foundation are undamaged and cars appear to not be thrown that would probably preclude anything higher; Bassfield etc had way worse contextual damage and didn't manage EF5
 
Equus said:
I'd say EF4 is certainly on the table at least, but given that low lying shrubs around the foundation are undamaged and cars appear to not be thrown that would probably preclude anything higher; Bassfield etc had way worse contextual damage and didn't manage EF5
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Ahh ok, thanks for the explanation!
 
Another potential issue in the NC tornado rating will be what appears to be a CMU foundation on the destroyed home; some of the aerials appear to possibly show sill plates indicating anchoring, but an actual slab would be far more likely to reach a violent rating. I'll assume EF3 with a possible upgrade if close analysis proves strong attachment but it would also not surprise me if attachment isn't as strong as it's supposed to be.
 
I’m expecting mid-range EF3 to possibly as high as low-end EF4. Based on the debris pattern, foundation type, and contextual evidence though, my gut says the rating will likely remain within the EF3 range.
 
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