• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We would love for you to become a part of our community.
    Take a moment to look around and join the discussion.
    CLICK HERE TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
1-800-PetMeds

Severe WX Enhanced Weather Threat Alabama, Florida and Georgia 15 Feb 2021 (1 Viewer)

Equus

Member
Messages
2,365
Reaction score
1,539
Location
Saragossa, AL
Going by scanner traffic on home locations, the homes are expensive early 2000s wood frame and brick veneer homes surrounding a golf course, so we may be looking at a tornado that slabbed well-constructed homes built to whatever hurricane standards North Carolina has. It's just 3 miles or so inland from Ocean Isle Beach.

homess.JPG
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
1,276
Reaction score
1,464
Location
Riverside, Ohio
Going by scanner traffic on home locations, the homes are expensive early 2000s wood frame and brick veneer homes surrounding a golf course, so we may be looking at a tornado that slabbed well-constructed homes built to whatever hurricane standards North Carolina has. It's just 3 miles or so inland from Ocean Isle Beach.

View attachment 6000
Yeah something tells me these aren’t cookie-cutter, build-em fast and cheap, block foundation homes. I don’t want to get too ahead of myself here, but we could potentially be looking at the first EF4 candidate of 2021.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
2,365
Reaction score
1,539
Location
Saragossa, AL
Yep, if the early reports are accurate it'll certainly be a candidate. VROT/TDS would match a violent possibility as well.

This storm was not very well forecast or warned since those cells were expected to be on the cool side of the warm front, with CAMs running way too cool; shear was definitely sufficient for some nasty action

image0.jpg
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
1,276
Reaction score
1,464
Location
Riverside, Ohio
Looks like the two fatalities reported over the scanner haven’t been confirmed at this time, thankfully. I shouldn’t have posted that information so early on before it was verified, so my apologies.
 

Equus

Member
Messages
2,365
Reaction score
1,539
Location
Saragossa, AL
I did just overhear on scanner one black tag, so we have at least one fatality; not sure of the source for a second as of yet
 

Equus

Member
Messages
2,365
Reaction score
1,539
Location
Saragossa, AL
I'd say EF4 is certainly on the table at least, but given that low lying shrubs around the foundation are undamaged and cars appear to not be thrown that would probably preclude anything higher; Bassfield etc had way worse contextual damage and didn't manage EF5
 

atrainguy

Member
Messages
29
Reaction score
21
Location
Michigan
I'd say EF4 is certainly on the table at least, but given that low lying shrubs around the foundation are undamaged and cars appear to not be thrown that would probably preclude anything higher; Bassfield etc had way worse contextual damage and didn't manage EF5
Ahh ok, thanks for the explanation!
 

Equus

Member
Messages
2,365
Reaction score
1,539
Location
Saragossa, AL
Another potential issue in the NC tornado rating will be what appears to be a CMU foundation on the destroyed home; some of the aerials appear to possibly show sill plates indicating anchoring, but an actual slab would be far more likely to reach a violent rating. I'll assume EF3 with a possible upgrade if close analysis proves strong attachment but it would also not surprise me if attachment isn't as strong as it's supposed to be.
 

buckeye05

Member
Messages
1,276
Reaction score
1,464
Location
Riverside, Ohio
I’m expecting mid-range EF3 to possibly as high as low-end EF4. Based on the debris pattern, foundation type, and contextual evidence though, my gut says the rating will likely remain within the EF3 range.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top