Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

[Xyls]

I'm surprised with the intensity ratings that 1896 Sherman, TX is not being mentioned.

 

[DanLarsen34]

A thought I’ve had with all of this discussion of contextual damage: when it comes to examples of intense debarking, ground scouring, etc…I would think it would be possible to document each instance of this and accumulate that data to see how often these things have happened and what the intensity of the tornadoes were based on rating.

For example, if we have extensive documentation of modern F5 and EF5s, it should be possible to log the frequency in which certain extreme contextual indicators have happened. Doing this would give us a statistical estimate of how often these things happen with high-end tornadoes which could then be used to further corroborate that those events only occur in extremely violent tornadoes. You could even throw in EF-4s since several higher end ones have been extensively debated as possible or probable EF-5s based on contextual indicators.

I know this would get harder to do with older tornadoes, but I would imagine that someone could assemble a study on this that goes back to at least the 1999 Moore tornado?

 

[DanLarsen34]

A thought I’ve had with all of this discussion of contextual damage: when it comes to examples of intense debarking, ground scouring, etc…I would think it would be possible to document each instance of this and accumulate that data to see how often these things have happened and what the intensity of the tornadoes were based on rating.

For example, if we have extensive documentation of modern F5 and EF5s, it should be possible to log the frequency in which certain extreme contextual indicators have happened. Doing this would give us a statistical estimate of how often these things happen with high-end tornadoes which could then be used to further corroborate that those events only occur in extremely violent tornadoes. You could even throw in EF-4s since several higher end ones have been extensively debated as possible or probable EF-5s based on contextual indicators.

I know this would get harder to do with older tornadoes, but I would imagine that someone could assemble a study on this that goes back to at least the 1999 Moore tornado?

Just to further expand on this idea, you could add in radar data (Vrot and depth of the CC drop) for more recent tornadoes that produced extreme contextual damage, but may not have impacted any substantial structures during their lifespans.

You’d also need to distinguish, in the case of debarking, between instances where that likely occurred by wind versus by debris.

 

[Aaron Rider]

I'm surprised with the intensity ratings that 1896 Sherman, TX is not being mentioned.

In that era, New Richmond, Sherman, and Pomeroy stand out as ludicrously violent.

 

[ColdFront]

I think it was an EF5 strength tornado, what it did and the truth of what is needed to do it, a lot more confusing. Do I think it will get downgraded, no. Do I think unless other examples of this type of damage are looked into with the same amount of detail, past or future, that this is a strange rating, yea kinda.

Kinda on the fence, it's just such a weird time to implement this stuff but with such an extreme example I kinda get it, but there are real things to be talked about that is "wrong" with the calculations done.

In terms of non-standard EF5 DIs, I like the idea but the only other ones we have are Philadelphia (not an EF5 imo) and Piedmont (most clear EF5 you can get really)

At what point do we stop moving the goal posts for a tornado to get an EF5? Do non-standard DIs need to be an oil rig each time?

I always figured the tornado that broke the drought would be nitpicked. However, this one had a legitimate panel of experts and engineers, all who agreed this tornado was an EF5. This wasn’t an instance of an office going rogue and haphazardly handing out a rating. I just don’t think there’s a scenario where these questions and issues weren’t discussed or thought of while the review was ongoing.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

From what I've seen/heard, Chapman seems to be the most outstanding example of the very rare "railroad track damage", all the other examples of torn up or bent tracks, which I know of at least 3 others including Tri State, were insanely debris loaded in the areas the tracks were bent or destroyed, at least from what we know Chapman didn't hit the tracks with anything except wind and ballast, maybe a car to be real tho because it was an insane tornado, and it still shoved 300ft of it off the center of the ballast it was laying on.

Another example would be Tuscaloosa where 600 feet of track were lost, with some sections bent into large U shapes with one end was touching the other.

 

[HAwkmoon]

From what I've seen/heard, Chapman seems to be the most outstanding example of the very rare "railroad track damage", all the other examples of torn up or bent tracks, which I know of at least 3 others including Tri State, were insanely debris loaded in the areas the tracks were bent or destroyed, at least from what we know Chapman didn't hit the tracks with anything except wind and ballast, maybe a car to be real tho because it was an insane tornado, and it still shoved 300ft of it off the center of the ballast it was laying on.

The difference is though that tri-state is the only one to rip them upright. Not just deform them. And it did so in multiple locations.

 

[Union]

The difference is though that tri-state is the only one to rip them upright. Not just deform them. And it did so in multiple locations.

heard about a tornado ripping them up outright like 2 days ago but i forgot which one, some old F5. But it also should be mentioned the pure amount of STUFF, and especially heavy STUFF that was being flung around there, we already saw from Enderlin that the shoving of heavy train cars can deform them. But it's also like the most non-standard a DI can get so who really knows what happening

 

[Union]

Another example would be Tuscaloosa where 600 feet of track were lost, with some sections bent into large U shapes with one end was touching the other.

View attachment 47358
View attachment 47359

This looks like the trestle bridge I assume? That stuff was definitely not staying on that no matter what, is cool to see the warping of it once it's free from the ties however, like a mobile home frame

 

[Union]

At what point do we stop moving the goal posts for a tornado to get an EF5? Do non-standard DIs need to be an oil rig each time?

I always figured the tornado that broke the drought would be nitpicked. However, this one had a legitimate panel of experts and engineers, all who agreed this tornado was an EF5. This wasn’t an instance of an office going rogue and haphazardly handing out a rating. I just don’t think there’s a scenario where these questions and issues weren’t discussed or thought of while the review was ongoing.

Not everyone will ever be completely happy with any EF5 in terms of the rating, a 2nd Bridge Creek could happen in New York City and people would still be like "but is it actually an EF5....". But it is relevant to point out actual problems with the info that was released regarding the official upgrade to EF5, because they do exist and they shouldn't just be swept under the rug because the professionals got the dimensions and stuff and did some calculations on it.

 

[ColdFront]

Not everyone will ever be completely happy with any EF5 in terms of the rating, a 2nd Bridge Creek could happen in New York City and people would still be like "but is it actually an EF5....". But it is relevant to point out actual problems with the info that was released regarding the official upgrade to EF5, because they do exist and they shouldn't just be swept under the rug because the professionals got the dimensions and stuff and did some calculations on it.

Who is sweeping stuff under the rug?

I’m not sure what exactly you’re arguing here because you keep couching it in different areas. You keep saying you’re on the fence, but you think it had EF5 winds, the rating was strange, or the calculations were wrong, or maybe something was off etc.

Is your argument you think they got the calculations wrong? That it was hastily put out?

 

[jiharris0220]

Who is sweeping stuff under the rug?

I’m not sure what exactly you’re arguing here because you keep couching it in different areas. You keep saying you’re on the fence, but you think it had EF5 winds, the rating was strange, or the calculations were wrong, or maybe something was off etc.

Is your argument you think they got the calculations wrong? That it was hastily put out?

Honestly I don’t get all of the fuss and confusion with the rating either, honestly wasn’t expecting so much mulling over semantics. An ef5 an ef5.

Enderlin got an ef5 rating based off of “new” information from Lyze’s paper, the northern tornado project, and Grand Fork going above and beyond and actually going back to do a thorough check on the train. Definitely far from a “fluke” or a “weird” decision.

Same thing with NWS Omaha upgrading the Elkhorn tornado to ef4 2 months later after further review.

 

[tornado examiner]

At what point do we stop moving the goal posts for a tornado to get an EF5? Do non-standard DIs need to be an oil rig each time?

I always figured the tornado that broke the drought would be nitpicked. However, this one had a legitimate panel of experts and engineers, all who agreed this tornado was an EF5. This wasn’t an instance of an office going rogue and haphazardly handing out a rating. I just don’t think there’s a scenario where these questions and issues weren’t discussed or thought of while the review was ongoing.

Thank you.

 

[ColdFront]

Honestly I don’t get all of the fuss and confusion with the rating either, honestly wasn’t expecting so much mulling over semantics. An ef5 an ef5.

Enderlin got an ef5 rating based off of “new” information from Lyze’s paper, the northern tornado project, and Grand Fork going above and beyond and actually going back to do a thorough check on the train. Definitely far from a “fluke” or a “weird” decision.

Same thing with NWS Omaha upgrading the Elkhorn tornado to ef4 2 months later after further review.

Exactly! There’s clear precedent for upgrading, and even downgrading months after the fact. Rainsville in 2011, Elkhorn as you mentioned, El Reno 2013 was downgraded from 5 to 3!

I would give his argument some credence if FGF handed out the rating a week later. However, this took months and I’m positive the little back of napkin math that Tim Marshall shared publicly was not the only analysis they did.

 

[Kds86z]

Exactly! There’s clear precedent for upgrading, and even downgrading months after the fact. Rainsville in 2011, Elkhorn as you mentioned, El Reno 2013 was downgraded from 5 to 3!

I would give his argument some credence if FGF handed out the rating a week later. However, this took months and I’m positive the little back of napkin math that Tim Marshall shared publicly was not the only analysis they did.

Favorite top 5 violent tornadoes @ColdFront ?

 

[mike36]

Hey everyone been lurking and haven't posted in a while. With potential re-ratings i wonder if they would look at the Barnesville tornado in 2011. I read an article from Tornado Talk that in their opinion, a well-built home was swept away in EF5 fashion. April 27 2011 was so extreme that iI wonder if EVERY major tornado was CAPABLE of EF5 damage that day.

 

[AJS]

Hey everyone been lurking and haven't posted in a while. With potential re-ratings i wonder if they would look at the Barnesville tornado in 2011. I read an article from Tornado Talk that in their opinion, a well-built home was swept away in EF5 fashion. April 27 2011 was so extreme that iI wonder if EVERY major tornado was CAPABLE of EF5 damage that day.

It’s not unrealistic to say that there could have been damn well 15-20 EF5s on that day. It’s absolutely absurd to think about.