Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

[buckeye05]

The fact that the EF scale is being made an engineering standard mean it'll be much harder to make changes to the scale when needed and will further entrench already poor practices. It also shows the wrongheaded centring of the thinking around it. The Fujita scale was intended to help discern the intensity of tornadoes, not to discern an unrealistically minimal possible windspeed to cause damage against an apparently overly-strict model.

I think you've summarized the problem better than anyone else has. This is the crux of the issue.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

And I'll just reiterate that none of those houses to the right of the downtown strip in Vilonia (along Cemetery Street) have DIs in the survey, amongst a host of others. A large section of extraordinarily intense damage with nothing.

The wind-rowing is this area, to that one house in particular (center right) is on par with Andover. Yeah, Vilonia was definitely EF5, it's infuriating what happened here.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

I think you've summarized the problem better than anyone else has. This is the crux of the issue.

I think Chuck Doswell had a post on his blog back in 2007 or so where he predicted that the new scale would lead to something like this. Wish I could find the post again but he was prescient in so many ways.

 

[andyhb]

I think Chuck Doswell had a post on his blog back in 2007 or so where he predicted that the new scale would lead to something like this. Wish I could find the post again but he was prescient in so many ways.

See this link:

EF scale diatribe

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

EF scale diatribe

I totally remember that.

 

[andyhb]

Not to mention the Coker Rd and Beryl Rd areas, which were also completely skipped.

Do you think there is any way to bring this up to either higher-ups within the NWS chain of command, or at least the new LZK survey team? I feel like someone needs to say "Hey, this objectively isn't right and there is way too much evidence that this survey was botched, probably intentionally, and the strongest damage likely wasn't even assessed." That is a big deal, and a big problem, and goes waaaay beyond some tornado geeks squabbling over ratings on the internet (which some people have tried to portray it as). Literally EVERYTHING points to a bad survey, and nobody has given an explanation as to why those homes weren't surveyed. Was hoping Grazulis would be the one to stir the pot enough to give Vilonia a serious second look, but that isn't happening apparently. Someone needs to to SOMETHING at some point...

Oh and them using the Sherwood Meadows subdivision as essentially a rating scapegoat was an insult to everyone's intelligence.

I could try (and have tried), but I doubt it gets anywhere.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

Not to mention the Coker Rd and Beryl Rd areas, which were also completely skipped.

Do you think there is any way to bring this up to either higher-ups within the NWS chain of command, or at least the new LZK survey team? I feel like someone needs to say "Hey, this objectively isn't right and there is way too much evidence that this survey was botched, probably intentionally, and the strongest damage likely wasn't even assessed." That is a big deal, and a big problem, and goes waaaay beyond some tornado geeks squabbling over ratings on the internet (which some people have tried to portray it as). Literally EVERYTHING points to a bad survey, and nobody has given an explanation as to why those homes weren't surveyed. Was hoping Grazulis would be the one to stir the pot enough to give Vilonia a serious second look, but that isn't happening apparently. Someone needs to to SOMETHING at some point...

Oh and them using the Sherwood Meadows subdivision as essentially a rating scapegoat was an insult to everyone's intelligence.

The fact that Grazulis backpedaled about rating Vilonia EF5 a day after he said he would saying that the best he could do was give it an EF4 rating was strange to me. It almost seemed like he was being intimidated into doing so (but maybe not).
But he is going to at least discuss the questionable nature of the rating so better than nothing.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

The fact that Grazulis backpedaled about rating Vilonia EF5 a day after he said he would saying that the best he could do was give it an EF4 rating was strange to me. It almost seemed like he was being intimidated into doing so (but maybe not).
But he is going to at least discuss the questionable nature of the rating so better than nothing.

Did any of you get Grazulis new book?

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

Did any of you get Grazulis new book?

It's out now?

 

[ColdFront]

The fact that Grazulis backpedaled about rating Vilonia EF5 a day after he said he would saying that the best he could do was give it an EF4 rating was strange to me. It almost seemed like he was being intimidated into doing so (but maybe not).
But he is going to at least discuss the questionable nature of the rating so better than nothing.

I mean it’s totally plausible (not saying he was intimidated because the furthest thing from the mafia would be wind/structural engineers lol), but it could’ve been a phone call from an old colleague or someone at the NWS saying hey, don’t rehash this, we know it was screwed up etc.

Grazulis also holds Marshall in really high regard, based on some of his tweets, so it could have even been Marshall reaching out reiterating the same thing. having a bunch of weather weenies(from their POV) say you screwed up publically isn’t as bad as a rebuke from one of the godfathers of the tornado and the pontiff of tornado history.

Or his backtracking could’ve been his own choice.

 

[buckeye05]

I mean it’s totally plausible (not saying he was intimidated because the furthest thing from the mafia would be wind/structural engineers lol), but it could’ve been a phone call from an old colleague or someone at the NWS saying hey, don’t rehash this, we know it was screwed up etc.

Grazulis also holds Marshall in really high regard, based on some of his tweets, so it could have even been Marshall reaching out reiterating the same thing. having a bunch of weather weenies(from their POV) say you screwed up publically isn’t as bad as a rebuke from one of the godfathers of the tornado and the pontiff of tornado history.

Or his backtracking could’ve been his own choice.

What I don't understand is how sometimes he has no problem assigning his own rating if he disagrees, and there's plenty of examples of him doing that in the addition of his book that I own. Why not do that with Vilonia? When it comes to the 2010s, there is literally no better candidate for that than Vilonia. It just doesn't make sense.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

What I don't understand is how sometimes he has no problem assigning his own rating if he disagrees, and there's plenty of examples of him doing that in the addition of his book that I own. Why not do that with Vilonia? When it comes to the 2010s, there is literally no better candidate for that than Vilonia. It just doesn't make sense.

Maybe Marshall is a long time friend of his and he doesn't want to risk losing a friendship and/or professional relationship. It happens.
Speaking of Marshall, has he ever expressed a motive for rating Vilonia EF4 and the resulting debacle that's since followed?

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Maybe Marshall is a long time friend of his and he doesn't want to risk losing a friendship and/or professional relationship. It happens.
Speaking of Marshall, has he ever expressed a motive for rating Vilonia EF4 and the resulting debacle that's since followed?

I believe the explanation thrown about was Marshall did not want to rock the boat and end his friendship with John Robinson (who rated it EF4 in the first place).

 

[ColdFront]

What I don't understand is how sometimes he has no problem assigning his own rating if he disagrees, and there's plenty of examples of him doing that in the addition of his book that I own. Why not do that with Vilonia? When it comes to the 2010s, there is literally no better candidate for that than Vilonia. It just doesn't make sense.

I agree 100%. It was politician level of flip flopping, extremely strange.

 

[ColdFront]

I believe the explanation thrown about was Marshall did not want to rock the boat and end his friendship with John Robinson (who rated it EF4 in the first place).

I’ve heard that speculated - I’m not sure if I believe it. I would hope Marshall, as great a professional of the field as he is, wouldn’t let something like that keep him from doing his job correctly.

Although we are talking about humans here, and John Robinson always struck me as someone with an ego who would take that as a kind of slight from Marshall

Or I’m just way off and the two barely know each other. Disagreement though is healthy for any field.

 

[TH2002]

Maybe Marshall is a long time friend of his and he doesn't want to risk losing a friendship and/or professional relationship. It happens.
Speaking of Marshall, has he ever expressed a motive for rating Vilonia EF4 and the resulting debacle that's since followed?

As much as the EF4 rating for Vilonia literally angers me whenever I think about it, to be honest I doubt Marshall had any kind of motive (Robinson is a different story). He simply didn't survey the most intense damage probably because Robinson told him "Okay, look, we need your validation that the homes in Sherwood Meadows were nailed down. EF4, case closed, nothing more to see here".

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

As much as the EF4 rating for Vilonia literally angers me whenever I think about it, to be honest I doubt Marshall had any kind of motive (Robinson is a different story). He simply didn't survey the most intense damage probably because Robinson told him "Okay, look, we need your validation that the homes in Sherwood Meadows were nailed down. EF4, case closed, nothing more to see here".

OK this makes sense, Robinson is the one to blame, not Marshall. I thought Marshall was the one calling the shots, my bad.
Perhaps Robinson is the one intimidating Grazulis into not rocking the boat. The fact Grazulis is also backpedaling on Chickasha, Goldsby, Chapman and (probably) Mayfield is what makes me wonder.

 

[buckeye05]

As much as the EF4 rating for Vilonia literally angers me whenever I think about it, to be honest I doubt Marshall had any kind of motive (Robinson is a different story). He simply didn't survey the most intense damage probably because Robinson told him "Okay, look, we need your validation that the homes in Sherwood Meadows were nailed down. EF4, case closed, nothing more to see here".

Bingo. Marshall said on Facebook that he did not survey the E Wicker St home and was not aware of it at the time of the survey. That absolutely reeks of intentional deception and misdirection from LZK. I'm not one for conspiratorial thinking, but I can't help but think that Robinson "hid" the E Wicker St home from Marshall. I'm just disgusted by it...

 

[buckeye05]

OK this makes sense, Robinson is the one to blame, not Marshall. I thought Marshall was the one calling the shots, my bad.
Perhaps Robinson is the one intimidating Grazulis into not rocking the boat. The fact Grazulis is also backpedaling on Chickasha, Goldsby, Chapman and (probably) Mayfield is what makes me wonder.

You're way too hard on Marshall my friend. He's not the boogeyman you make him out to be. I don't always agree with his stuff, but he also has made some really reasonable calls (Parkersburg, Greensburg, Joplin, ect). People like Robinson are the real source of all this BS.

 

[ColdFront]

OK this makes sense, Robinson is the one to blame, not Marshall. I thought Marshall was the one calling the shots, my bad.
Perhaps Robinson is the one intimidating Grazulis into not rocking the boat. The fact Grazulis is also backpedaling on Chickasha, Goldsby, Chapman and (probably) Mayfield is what makes me wonder.

Over a year later, I think Mayfield was the right call. I’m from KY, and you’re just not going to find anything well constructed in the rural
parts of the state. You flip its place with the Bowling Green storm and I think we end the EF5 drought that night.

Now, had the UK facility actually been built like it’s plans laid out, I would say okay we have a good base argument. But as we later found out, it wasn’t as well constructed as planned