Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

[buckeye05]

Over a year later, I think Mayfield was the right call. I’m from KY, and you’re just not going to find anything well constructed in the rural
parts of the state. Now, had the UK facility actually been built like it’s plans laid out, I would say okay we have a good base argument. But as we later found out, it wasn’t as well constructed as planned

100% agreed. There was not a single instance of clear-cut EF5 damage along the Mayfield path. Now did it contain EF5 winds? Based on the Bremen damage, almost certainly. However, there wasn't a single point that met BOTH the structural and contextual criteria for EF5. I wish people would stop using Mayfield as an example of an egregiously underrated tornado. It hurts the credibility of hobbyists like us, and perpetuates the perception of "lol look at the tornado weenies squabbling over ratings on the internet thinking everything is an EF5". If you want to talk about missed EF5s, then lets talk about Chickasha, Goldsby, Vilonia, Fairdale, Chapman, New Wren, and potentially Tuscaloosa.

Now if we had the type of construction from Cambridge Shores in the same area as the type of contextual damage seen in Bremen, it would be a different story, but those two factors which are needed for an EF5 rating, never overlapped with one another at a single point along the path.

 

[TH2002]

Over a year later, I think Mayfield was the right call. I’m from KY, and you’re just not going to find anything well constructed in the rural
parts of the state. You flip its place with the Bowling Green storm and I think we end the EF5 drought that night.

Now, had the UK facility actually been built like it’s plans laid out, I would say okay we have a good base argument. But as we later found out, it wasn’t as well constructed as planned

While Bowling Green was undoubtedly violent, unless there's something I missed I don't think it should have been rated EF5.

 

[ColdFront]

While Bowling Green was undoubtedly violent, unless there's something I missed I don't think it should have been rated EF5.

My point was if you put the Mayfield tornado on the path the Bowling Green tornado took, which takes it through more affluent, urban areas,
It would have had a better chance of coming across well anchored and constructed structures

 

[TH2002]

My point was if you put the Mayfield tornado on the path the Bowling Green tornado took, which takes it through more affluent, urban areas,
It would have had a better chance of coming across well anchored and constructed structures

Ah okay. I honestly tend to think the Hayti tornado that night had EF5 potential as well, albeit it didn't come across any EF5-worthy DI's either.

 

[buckeye05]

Ah okay. I honestly tend to think the Hayti tornado that night had EF5 potential as well, albeit it didn't come across any EF5-worthy DI's either.

Yup. That debarking near Buckeye, AR was among the most violent tree damage I have ever seen photographed, and it was in a rural area so the debris loading argument is moot. I mean just look at this...

 

[ColdFront]

Ah okay. I honestly tend to think the Hayti tornado that night had EF5 potential as well, albeit it didn't come across any EF5-worthy DI's either.

Yep! Me too. It just takes that perfect combination of right intensity, right DI, and right context all at the same time. And in a lot of the areas where tornados are common in the USA, that’s a rarity.

I do want to research a storm later from 4/27, it may have been the Flat Rock or the Stevenson-Fackler tornado where, recently, one of the Mets that surveyed it straight up told James Spann on his podcast he thought it was a 5 but there was something with an anchor bolt or a small fence was still standing that kept it at a 4.

After the New Wren debacle(almost as egregious as Vilonia), we could’ve been looking at 6 EF5s that day.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

Yup. That debarking near Buckeye, AR was among the most violent tree damage I have ever seen photographed, and it was in a rural area so the debris loading argument is moot. I mean just look at this...

If you look at the right of the photo you can see several trees that look they are completely stripped from top to bottom. Only times I've seen tree damage comparable to this are Smithville, Hackleburg and Bassfield.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

Over a year later, I think Mayfield was the right call. I’m from KY, and you’re just not going to find anything well constructed in the rural
parts of the state. You flip its place with the Bowling Green storm and I think we end the EF5 drought that night.

Now, had the UK facility actually been built like it’s plans laid out, I would say okay we have a good base argument. But as we later found out, it wasn’t as well constructed as planned

Was the UK facility the candle factory that was leveled?

 

[ColdFront]

Was the UK facility the candle factory that was leveled?

Nope, it was a special research/university building constructed by the University of Kentucky.

 

[TH2002]

Yep! Me too. It just takes that perfect combination of right intensity, right DI, and right context all at the same time. And in a lot of the areas where tornados are common in the USA, that’s a rarity.

I do want to research a storm later from 4/27, it may have been the Flat Rock or the Stevenson-Fackler tornado where, recently, one of the Mets straight up told James Spann on his podcast he thought it was a 5 but there was something with an anchor bolt or a small fence was still standing that kept it at a 4.

After the New Wren debacle(almost as egregious as Vilonia), we could’ve been looking at 6 EF5s that day.

It was Flat Rock:

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

100% agreed. There was not a single instance of clear-cut EF5 damage along the Mayfield path. Now did it contain EF5 winds? Based on the Bremen damage, almost certainly. However, there wasn't a single point that met BOTH the structural and contextual criteria for EF5. I wish people would stop using Mayfield as an example of an egregiously underrated tornado. It hurts the credibility of hobbyists like us, and perpetuates the perception of "lol look at the tornado weenies squabbling over ratings on the internet thinking everything is an EF5". If you want to talk about missed EF5s, then lets talk about Chickasha, Goldsby, Vilonia, Fairdale, Chapman, New Wren, and potentially Tuscaloosa.

Now if we had the type of construction from Cambridge Shores in the same area as the type of contextual damage seen in Bremen, it would be a different story, but those two factors which are needed for an EF5 rating, never overlapped with one another at a single point along the path.

Good points, forgot about New Wren and Fairdale. Yeah, you're right that Mayfield's rating is the right call, I think I was trying to fill a list with missed EF5s and Mayfield burst out of my subconscious at the worst possible time.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

As much as the EF4 rating for Vilonia literally angers me whenever I think about it, to be honest I doubt Marshall had any kind of motive (Robinson is a different story). He simply didn't survey the most intense damage probably because Robinson told him "Okay, look, we need your validation that the homes in Sherwood Meadows were nailed down. EF4, case closed, nothing more to see here".

My bad, I forgot that Robinson was the one calling the shots. So many people blamed Marshall for it and I was guilty of jumping on that bandwagon. Yeah, I guess Robinson got himself an easy scapegoat with Marshall.

 

[ColdFront]

Good points, forgot about New Wren and Fairdale. Yeah, you're right that Mayfield's rating is the right call, I think I was trying to fill a list with missed EF5s and Mayfield burst out of my subconscious at the worst possible time.

New Wren was egregious, could have been back to back EF5s like the Heston-Goessel storm.

I want to give them the benefit of the doubt because: “hey, this once in a 40 year type outbreak happened, our survey team and resources are maxed.” But they straight up didn’t even check the most impressive damage.

It should be a prime candidate to be revisited in the future if the NWS opens up reviews for past Tornados.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

New Wren was egregious, could have been back to back EF5s like the Heston-Goessel storm.

I want to give them the benefit of the doubt because: “hey, this once in a 40 year type outbreak happened, our survey team and resources are maxed.”

It should be a prime candidate to be revisited in the future if the NWS opens up reviews for past Tornados.

4/27/11 is understandable given the sheer amount of tornadoes that day, many were bound to not get proper ratings. Also, I think the EF3 wedge that preceded was an EF5, likely several supercells from that day spawned EF5s back to back.
TornadoTalk is doing a good job at rectifying past ratings, the full scale of that outbreak is being made apparent by them.
I can't wait to see what they do for the 4/3/74 outbreak and determine how tornadoes from that day were either overrated or underrated.

 

[buckeye05]

While we're discussing missed EF5s, I want to mention that I used to be a defender of the high-end EF4 rating for Tuscaloosa until the past year or so. After studying the total destruction of the Hurricane Creek railroad bridge northeast of town, engineers came to the conclusion that winds had to have exceeded 200 MPH for that to have happened, and for the bridge support to have been thrown uphill along the embankment of that deep ravine. I was always on the fence due to the fact that there isn't a "railroad bridge" DI, but I got to thinking that a similar instance of damage is essentially the basis for EF5 in El Reno 2011, and there isn't an "oil rig" DI either. On top of that, Tornado Talk researchers recently found two anchor bolted rural homes that were completely slabbed near Hurricane Creek that may have actually been missed by BMX, and that's what really sold me. With all that taken account, it leaves us with a pretty solid basis for EF5 for Tuscaloosa. So yeah, I've definitely changed my stance on that one.

 

[buckeye05]

It was Flat Rock:

If this is the home I'm thinking of, a family was actually inside the residence when it was struck. From what I remember, they took shelter in an interior hallway while the house disintegrated around them, and miraculously, they were pretty much unscathed.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

While we're discussing missed EF5s, I want to mention that I used to be a defender of the high-end EF4 rating for Tuscaloosa until the past year or so. After studying the total destruction of the Hurricane Creek railroad bridge northeast of town, engineers came to the conclusion that winds had to have exceeded 200 MPH for that to have happened, and for the bridge support to have been thrown uphill along the embankment of that deep ravine. I was always on the fence due to the fact that there isn't a "railroad bridge" DI, but I got to thinking that a similar instance of damage is essentially the basis for EF5 in El Reno 2011, and there isn't an "oil rig" DI either. On top of that, Tornado Talk researchers recently found two anchor bolted rural homes that were completely slabbed near Hurricane Creek that may have actually been missed by BMX, and that's what really sold me. With all that taken account, it leaves us with a pretty solid basis for EF5 for Tuscaloosa. So yeah, I've definitely changed my stance on that one.

Out of curiosity, do you think that the Chastain apartments and the clubhouse in that area were EF4 or EF5? That was one area that surveyors disagreed about. I do think Tuscaloosa reached EF5 intensity right around there but whether or not it actually left EF5 DAMAGE there is another question.
TornadoTalk's article on Tuscaloosa is fantastic, I really think it was at EF5 intensity while traveling through the ~40 miles of forest between Tuscaloosa and Birmingham and maybe it was at EF5 while in the Alberta City area (that vaporized warehouse). I'm glad it was not at EF5 intensity while going through Tuscaloosa because we could've had a death toll in the hundreds in that city alone.

 

[buckeye05]

Out of curiosity, do you think that the Chastain apartments and the clubhouse in that area were EF4 or EF5? That was one area that surveyors disagreed about. I do think Tuscaloosa reached EF5 intensity right around there but whether or not it actually left EF5 DAMAGE there is another question.
TornadoTalk's article on Tuscaloosa is fantastic, I really think it was at EF5 intensity while traveling through the ~40 miles of forest between Tuscaloosa and Birmingham and maybe it was at EF5 while in the Alberta City area (that vaporized warehouse). I'm glad it was not at EF5 intensity while going through Tuscaloosa because we could've had a death toll in the hundreds in that city alone.

Regarding Chastain Manor, no anchor bolts = no EF5. Pretty straightforward.

 

[Juliett Bravo Kilo]

Regarding Chastain Manor, no anchor bolts = no EF5. Pretty straightforward.

Duh, I feel silly now for asking.
Been awhile since I was really active on reading TornadoTalk lol; need to read their article on Tuscaloosa (or at least some parts) and pay closer attention this time.

 

[buckeye05]

The fact that Philadelphia and Rainsville were given EF5 while this was left at EF4 is baffling.

How so? This was a block foundation home per the NWS survey, and the subfloor is clearly still attached, along with the wood flooring. Violent, but nothing really exceptional about that.

Excerpt from survey:

"One well-built block foundation home literally exploded as the tornado struck, lifting and sweeping all its structure and contents downwind, in some cases several hundred yards. However, miraculously, a mother and three children taking refuge in a hallway were completely unharmed. At this farm, all fencing was destroyed and up to 19 cattle were killed. Two chicken barns were completely obliterated and swept away unidentifiably. A propane tank was lifted from the previous location of chicken barns and dropped over 100 yards away in front of the destroyed home. "