Severe WX December 31, 2021 - January 1, 2022 Severe Threat

[Equus]

Capping extent was quite evident on the 00z soundings from Jackson and New Orleans so perhaps they wanna see where that's at from BMX etc on the 12z soundings, will largely determine what kind of open warm sector development we get

 

[Equus]

Suspicious supercell already headed for Union City, TN; a bit strung out and sidelobe-y but nevertheless bears close watching

 

[Equus]

First tornado of the new year already near Cottage Grove, TN

 

[Argus]

Yesterday about 4pm, we were casually discussing the Fort Payne tornado report. Brit mentioned "Wouldn't shock me if a surprise tornado strikes Georgia today, just like in March of '08".

 

[Clancy]

With the newest D1 update, the SPC seems significantly less confident about open warm sector activity and has pulled the ENH away from parts of GA and Central Alabama.

 

[Richardjacks]

Per bmx, enh removal was considered due to lack of height falls, strength of cap, and departing surface low.

 

[Kragg]

HRRR is still showing some discrete cells popping in MS this afternoon and going through the NW corner of AL. Do y’all think it might be over predicting the possibility of convection?

Something I noticed is that the discrete cells it’s showing are right along the southern edge of the enhanced area. Like we’ve seen since last year.

 

[Clancy]

Discrete development is still showing on HRRR as of 13Z, but it seems that it's an outlier in terms of intensity. The FV3 showed some similar looking storms at the same time frame, though.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Yeah Clancy, there are plenty indications for pre-frontal activity in the warm sector. CAPE and shear look supportive of a significant tornado risk with the storms.

 

[akt1985]

I guess SPC doesn’t have enough confidence to go with a moderate risk for this afternoon?

 

[Clancy]

Yeah Clancy, there are plenty indications for pre-frontal activity in the warm sector. CAPE and shear look supportive of a significant tornado risk with the storms.

HRRR is seeming very consistent about pre-frontal discrete stuff as of its 14Z run, especially focused on parts of AL NW of I-59 and it definitely performed well for yesterday's event, so.

 

[Richardjacks]

Yeah Clancy, there are plenty indications for pre-frontal activity in the warm sector. CAPE and shear look supportive of a significant tornado risk with the storms.

what stands out to me is how HRRR weakens the cells as they push eastward....not sure that is right but it might suggest they aren't really able to overcome the warm air aloft plus they are moving into/fighting the ridge. The HRRR could be wrong about the intensity. The 12z NAM suggests nothing overcomes the cap until but its not a CAM and then the 4k NAM can't be trusted for storm initiation but it shows a healthy cap. A real challenge here that COULD have high consequences.

BTW, why are all of our profile pics wearing masks that cover our entire face?

 

[Clancy]

BTW, why are all of our profile pics wearing masks that cover our entire face?

New Year's spirit

 

[Richardjacks]

Seeing some pop ups in Northern Miss, about an hour earlier than hrrr shows

 

[sak]

Will obviously keep an eye on things but I feel a lot better than I did this time yesterday ( a little SE of Birmingham)

god bless the cap

 

[Richardjacks]

Will obviously keep an eye on things but I feel a lot better than I did this time yesterday ( a little SE of Birmingham)

That area needs to watch the frontal boundary itself....I don't like the look of the line as it moves south of Bham on some of the models.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

cell north memphis metro trying rotate some

 

[Clancy]

New update to the D1 changes little other than removing some of the western threat areas as the front progresses.

Given the persistence of the subtropical ridge over FL and only
glancing/small height falls through the day, much of the convection
may remain confined to the convection-reinforced frontal zone.
Still, there will be the potential for embedded supercells within a
broken band of storms along the front, and a lower chance for a
few supercells in the open warm sector along diffuse confluence
zones a little south of the front later this afternoon/evening.
Effective bulk shear of 60-70 kt and MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg will
conditionally support supercells capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging winds, and marginally severe hail. The prospects for a
couple strong tornadoes will likely hinge on pre-frontal supercell
development that is not entirely undercut by the surface front. This
is most likely from northern portions of MS/AL into middle TN where
effective SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2 should be common late this
afternoon/evening. The frontal convection will spread southeast
through the overnight hours, with a gradually lessening severe
threat and shrinking warm sector centered on AL toward the end of
the period.

 

[Jetstream]

Tornado warning on the cell WSW of Bowling Green Ky. Looks like it was a quick spin up.

Warning replaced with severe t-storm warning.

 

[OHWX97]

Possible tornado damage in Hopkinsville, KY.