Hard to say for sure but based on the mud caked on that Jeep, this could be intense ground scouring.High end damage in Samburg TN from the first of the long tracked tornadoes from the main supercell (this was the tri-state tornado that initially struck the nursing home in Monette AR).
I don't think anyone expected this to happen - after all, the SPC said there was supposed to be "a few strong tornadoes", not a record-shattering historic outbreak.
Mesoscale models definitely showed very long tracked UH streaks.
I did definitely pick up on that, albeit the streaks were placed a little further south than where the tornadoes ended up tracking. Still, an outbreak of this magnitude in December? Very rare.
I think the real story is the high quality air flowing in, the shear, deepening surface low are all common in December, but really what made a difference were the thermos you usually see in Springtime.
16Z HRRR actually pretty well nailed the long track cell, as well as PDS TOR soundings along it's path IIRC.
Quality La Niña EMLs.
Yes, but the surface winds staying largely southerly or even backed SSEly in spots is likely what helped so many storms produce significant tornadoes. I think the moisture aspect was well agreed upon although it did overperform, and the surface temperatures certainly overperformed the NAM-based guidance, but IMO my big question going in was just how favorable the low-level wind profile would be. As it turns out, it was classic.
I think it’s largely the violent nature of tornadoes that’s the main factor in death toll in addition to population density. In these cases, these were smaller towns outside Bowling Green. Think of 4/27/2011 death tolls with the Hackleburg/Phil Campbell tornado.
