Most recent estimate I'm seeing is that Omicron is around 20% less likely to result in hospitalization. Seems probable that will be offset by its enhanced transmissibility and its increased level of immune evasion. I've seen a variety of sources peg Omicron as being anywhere from 2-4 times more transmisible than Delta.
Like you, I was initially quite encouraged and had a similar thought that if it was remarkably milder that the variant could ultimately result in us finally emerging from the Pandemic.
Unfortunately, I'm afraid that Omicron is about to lead to our worst numbers thus far. Hospital staffing is down. Remaining staff are exhausted or fairly new. Immunity is waning as booster adoption hasn't been anywhere near a level necessary to help forestall Omicron. COVID fatigue has lead to the vast majority of people reverting to pre-COVID behavior or close enough -- myself included.
I don't know that people have the will anymore to be able to do anything to counter Omicron. All we can do is hope that it causes fewer hospitalizations and deaths than expected as I don't think there's a way to impact its spread in any significant way. It's going to spread like wildfire until it runs out of suitable hosts. Vaccination can't and won't have a measurable impact unless and until a vax is developed that predictively covers future mutations. I know there's work underway in that area but it's going to have to overcome the mutation issue which is very very similar to why a universal flu vaccine has yet to be successful.
Even if we had decided to throw caution to the wind and had every vax maker currently producing a vax that was 100% effective against Omicron it would already be too late. Even after all the scaling up and capacity increases there's no way to produce enough let alone distribute them before a new mutation takes hold. A predictive vaccine covering numerous potential future strains is really the only way and I think that's still further away than we might think.
I'm afraid we're about to witness a shocking level of fatalism with Omicron as people simply can't take it anymore.
Sorry to say, but it looks like this held up extremely well. The early comparisons to South Africa didn't end up being accurate or replicated here.
We've eclipsed our highest level of hospitalizations nationwide during the pandemic, the level of patients in the ICU has eclipsed Delta, and deaths per day have also eclipsed Delta. I don't think we'll exceed the ICU numbers found during original COVID. We might get close on average deaths per day (but far from sure).
Goes without saying that we also shattered case count records repeatedly. Yes, you are less likely to die or be hospitalized with Omicron. However, the immune evasion and increased transmissibility meant that cases rapidly accelerated and still made a LOT of people very sick. That has overwhelmed or strained health systems in many places.
Thankfully, treatment and understanding of COVID has improved significantly, including therapeutics like monoclonal antibodies and better anti-virals, and we have the protection of vaccines.
I think had we encountered Omicron before the availability of vaccines, improved therapeutics, improved treatment/understanding, we would have absolutely crushed the original COVID death and ICU numbers by a multiplier.
The issue was always going to be the sheer number of people who would need treatment at a given time due to Omicron's high R0, a lack of resources (not just in hospitals, but in urgent care and primary offices being able to triage, treat, and transfer the sickest), a shortage of therapeutics, ECMO, etc. Add in a level of fatalism that caused many/most people to abandon effective NPIs and here we are.
It's unfortunate that COVID has turned into a struggle between doomsayers who essentially believe in a permanent pandemic and those who want to downplay COVID whenever possible.
