COVID-19 detected in United States

[ARCC]

What was the flu like symptoms your wife had? I suspect it is in my house currently.

She had a migraine level headache, body aches, horrible chills and a 101 fever although the fever could be controlled pretty good by ibuprofen. Her fever lasted probably 18 hours then at the end of her fever is when it all went to her sinuses and chest.

All the kids just had a 100-101 fever, headache and feeling crummy although I did hear a little chest congestion in a few of them like you get with a cold. Once again it lasted around 24 hours.

 

[Jacob]

She had a migraine level headache, body aches, horrible chills and a 101 fever although the fever could be controlled pretty good by ibuprofen. Her fever lasted probably 18 hours then at the end of her fever is when it all went to her sinuses and chest.

All the kids just had a 100-101 fever, headache and feeling crummy although I did her a little chest congestion in a few of them like you get with a cold. Once again it lasted around 24 hours.

Outside of the headache, sounds like my last ~20 hours. I had a tickle in my throat yesterday and an occasional cough yesterday afternoon/evening, then woke up with the chills and body aches around 2AM. Got up around 5:30 because I couldn't sleep and my temp was at 100.7 then. Ate something so I could take some ibuprofen and tried to get a little more sleep.

Ibuprofen kept my temp around 98.8-99.6 the rest of the day, but I tried to swap up and take Tylenol around 4-5PM tonight and that didn't put a dent in it. Had some fierce chills the last hour or two and am up to 101.8, but oddly feel better than I did earlier today or overnight last night. Hoping that latest round of ibuprofen kicks in soon so I can get some sleep.

 

[ARCC]

Outside of the headache, sounds like my last ~20 hours. I had a tickle in my throat yesterday and an occasional cough yesterday afternoon/evening, then woke up with the chills and body aches around 2AM. Got up around 5:30 because I couldn't sleep and my temp was at 100.7 then. Ate something so I could take some ibuprofen and tried to get a little more sleep.

Ibuprofen kept my temp around 98.8-99.6 the rest of the day, but I tried to swap up and take Tylenol around 4-5PM tonight and that didn't put a dent in it. Had some fierce chills the last hour or two and am up to 101.8, but oddly feel better than I did earlier today or overnight last night. Hoping that latest round of ibuprofen kicks in soon so I can get some sleep.

I think she had the house up to 75 degrees on Monday. I’m cold natured and she is hot natured but she had it warm enough that even I was hot.

She tried to alternate as well with Tylenol and had the same result.

 

[KoD]

That's very interesting, Tylenol is generally a crummy pain killer in most cases but a terrific fever reducer. Ibuprofen is a decent pain killer and mild fever reducer. I wonder why their effectiveness is opposite under those relative circumstances.
I do hope everyone continues to feel better.

 

[Jacob]

That's very interesting, Tylenol is generally a crummy pain killer in most cases but a terrific fever reducer. Ibuprofen is a decent pain killer and mild fever reducer. I wonder why their effectiveness is opposite under those relative circumstances.
I do hope everyone continues to feel better.

I thought it was odd as well, Tylenol is usually my go to when I have a fever. Not this time though.

 

[ARCC]

That's very interesting, Tylenol is generally a crummy pain killer in most cases but a terrific fever reducer. Ibuprofen is a decent pain killer and mild fever reducer. I wonder why their effectiveness is opposite under those relative circumstances.
I do hope everyone continues to feel better.

Tylenol is pretty much useless for me in pain or fever and Ibuprofen is a miracle drug. The only time I take Tylenol for for sinus pain or congestion.

The same is generally true for my kids as well, Ibuprofen does twice what Tylenol does for fevers.

 

[StormStalker]

Only two cars in line at the urgent care to get tested about 45 minutes ago. Hopefully, this is a good sign as they have been wrapped around the building.

 

[StormStalker]

My 91 year old grandmother tested positive Tuesday evening. Her rapid test was negative but the sample they sent off was positive. It was pretty evident that she most likely had it. She was staying at my aunt and uncle's house when my uncle contracted and tested positive. She has not received a vaccine but is fairing okay with it so far. Mostly a mild cough and headache early on but the cough is more sporadic now and the headache is gone. My parents are caring for her now. My mom is vaccinated but not boosted, dad had the vax and booster. I'm hoping they dont catch it.

 

[Evan]

Tylenol is pretty much useless for me in pain or fever and Ibuprofen is a miracle drug. The only time I take Tylenol for for sinus pain or congestion.

The same is generally true for my kids as well, Ibuprofen does twice what Tylenol does for fevers.

Same here for both my kids and me myself. Tylenol has always been relatively useless for us. Barely dents a fever. Ibuprofen always crushes it.

 

[Evan]

My 91 year old grandmother tested positive Tuesday evening. Her rapid test was negative but the sample they sent off was positive. It was pretty evident that she most likely had it. She was staying at my aunt and uncle's house when my uncle contracted and tested positive. She has not received a vaccine but is fairing okay with it so far. Mostly a mild cough and headache early on but the cough is more sporadic now and the headache is gone. My parents are caring for her now. My mom is vaccinated but not boosted, dad had the vax and booster. I'm hoping they dont catch it.

Sorry to hear about your grandmother. Hopefully she experiences a mild case and is on the mend soon.

 

[Evan]

There's a stark difference so far in this wave in Alabama with hospitalizations and deaths. That wasn't the case during the Delta wave at all. Here's the 7 day average of deaths vs. hospitalizations in Alabama by report date. This metric doesn't fill in over time like deaths by day of death does, so it is better to use to compare a current wave with a previous wave.

I expect deaths to fill in somewhat over the next few weeks, but it looks like we'll only end up with a fraction of the deaths we saw during the Delta wave.

I hope that's true. Nationally, the trend on deaths is exactly what I was afraid of. Definitely lower deaths per case compared to Delta and original COVID, but the sheer number of cases has led to a level of deaths even higher than Delta. Absolute shame.

 

[Evan]

Most recent estimate I'm seeing is that Omicron is around 20% less likely to result in hospitalization. Seems probable that will be offset by its enhanced transmissibility and its increased level of immune evasion. I've seen a variety of sources peg Omicron as being anywhere from 2-4 times more transmisible than Delta.

Like you, I was initially quite encouraged and had a similar thought that if it was remarkably milder that the variant could ultimately result in us finally emerging from the Pandemic.

Unfortunately, I'm afraid that Omicron is about to lead to our worst numbers thus far. Hospital staffing is down. Remaining staff are exhausted or fairly new. Immunity is waning as booster adoption hasn't been anywhere near a level necessary to help forestall Omicron. COVID fatigue has lead to the vast majority of people reverting to pre-COVID behavior or close enough -- myself included.

I don't know that people have the will anymore to be able to do anything to counter Omicron. All we can do is hope that it causes fewer hospitalizations and deaths than expected as I don't think there's a way to impact its spread in any significant way. It's going to spread like wildfire until it runs out of suitable hosts. Vaccination can't and won't have a measurable impact unless and until a vax is developed that predictively covers future mutations. I know there's work underway in that area but it's going to have to overcome the mutation issue which is very very similar to why a universal flu vaccine has yet to be successful.

Even if we had decided to throw caution to the wind and had every vax maker currently producing a vax that was 100% effective against Omicron it would already be too late. Even after all the scaling up and capacity increases there's no way to produce enough let alone distribute them before a new mutation takes hold. A predictive vaccine covering numerous potential future strains is really the only way and I think that's still further away than we might think.

I'm afraid we're about to witness a shocking level of fatalism with Omicron as people simply can't take it anymore.

Sorry to say, but it looks like this held up extremely well. The early comparisons to South Africa didn't end up being accurate or replicated here.

We've eclipsed our highest level of hospitalizations nationwide during the pandemic, the level of patients in the ICU has eclipsed Delta, and deaths per day have also eclipsed Delta. I don't think we'll exceed the ICU numbers found during original COVID. We might get close on average deaths per day (but far from sure).

Goes without saying that we also shattered case count records repeatedly. Yes, you are less likely to die or be hospitalized with Omicron. However, the immune evasion and increased transmissibility meant that cases rapidly accelerated and still made a LOT of people very sick. That has overwhelmed or strained health systems in many places.

Thankfully, treatment and understanding of COVID has improved significantly, including therapeutics like monoclonal antibodies and better anti-virals, and we have the protection of vaccines.

I think had we encountered Omicron before the availability of vaccines, improved therapeutics, improved treatment/understanding, we would have absolutely crushed the original COVID death and ICU numbers by a multiplier.

The issue was always going to be the sheer number of people who would need treatment at a given time due to Omicron's high R0, a lack of resources (not just in hospitals, but in urgent care and primary offices being able to triage, treat, and transfer the sickest), a shortage of therapeutics, ECMO, etc. Add in a level of fatalism that caused many/most people to abandon effective NPIs and here we are.

It's unfortunate that COVID has turned into a struggle between doomsayers who essentially believe in a permanent pandemic and those who want to downplay COVID whenever possible.

 

[Jacob]

I hope that's true. Nationally, the trend on deaths is exactly what I was afraid of. Definitely lower deaths per case compared to Delta and original COVID, but the sheer number of cases has led to a level of deaths even higher than Delta. Absolute shame.

I'm really curious to see the death numbers that come in over the next 4-6 weeks. Many of the deaths reported in the past month, particularly up north, are still deaths related to Delta, because there was a pretty major Delta wave ongoing in IL/MI/NY/PA/OH/etc when Omicron showed up. It'll be interesting to compare deaths of areas that were thought to be almost exclusively Omicron (Florida) vs. areas that were in the midst of a Delta wave when Omicron took over (IL, PA, MI).

Also not sure that graph I posted with the Alabama deaths is worth much, as they've already changed some of the previous days values on the metric that isn't supposed to change. No surprise there though.

 

[Jacob]

There's a stark difference so far in this wave in Alabama with hospitalizations and deaths. That wasn't the case during the Delta wave at all. Here's the 7 day average of deaths vs. hospitalizations in Alabama by report date. This metric doesn't fill in over time like deaths by day of death does, so it is better to use to compare a current wave with a previous wave.

I expect deaths to fill in somewhat over the next few weeks, but it looks like we'll only end up with a fraction of the deaths we saw during the Delta wave.

So I didn't realize the data I was pulling the deaths from was crap, but that's been COVID numbers in Alabama the entire time, so I should've double checked.

Anyhow, pulling similar data from HHS (where deaths = deaths in hospitals) shows the following.

I do wish we had better data as far as true COVID deaths and incidental COVID deaths, as those are bound to be a higher percentage during Omicron, but I can only go with what we have.

 

[Jacob]

Outside of the headache, sounds like my last ~20 hours. I had a tickle in my throat yesterday and an occasional cough yesterday afternoon/evening, then woke up with the chills and body aches around 2AM. Got up around 5:30 because I couldn't sleep and my temp was at 100.7 then. Ate something so I could take some ibuprofen and tried to get a little more sleep.

Ibuprofen kept my temp around 98.8-99.6 the rest of the day, but I tried to swap up and take Tylenol around 4-5PM tonight and that didn't put a dent in it. Had some fierce chills the last hour or two and am up to 101.8, but oddly feel better than I did earlier today or overnight last night. Hoping that latest round of ibuprofen kicks in soon so I can get some sleep.

So an update here, it gave everybody in my house a decent thumping. I got up to 102.5 not long after post the quoted post, but that fever broke during the night and ibuprofen kept it from ever coming back. After the fever left the biggest pain was the body aches, particularly back and hips. Those came and went through Thursday. It reminded me a lot of being sick in July 2020, at least the aches and fatigue part. I didn't run much of a fever that time.

About the time I started getting a bit better it hit the rest of my house by Tuesday evening. Both kids popped up to around 102-103, but other than being lethargic and feverish for ~36 hours they didn't seem to be affected badly (mine are 4 and 1). My wife also started getting sick by Tuesday night, and is the only one still somewhat sidelined by it. She ran the occasional 100-ish fever, but fatigue has what has gotten her the most. She has a couple autoimmune issues so I'm not surprised it sidelined her the most.

My wife and I were supposed to leave tomorrow to go on a ski trip, but that's obviously been pushed.

I'm pretty sure I know where I was exposed to it, and it was on Wednesday/Thursday the previous week. So developing initial symptoms on Sunday morning makes sense and fits well.

 

[Evan]

I tested negative today as did my son. My wife and daughter still have faint positives, which makes sense since they developed symptoms 24-36 hours after I did, but they should be clear late tomorrow or Tuesday morning at the latest.

I still had a faint positive on Friday. The CDC's 5 day quarantine rule, unfortunately, is wrong as I think a lot of people already knew. If we had enough rapid tests people could actually know WHEN they're contagious and we could actually put a dent into spread of Omicron.

 

[Mike S]

Get vaccinated. It is safe.

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. health regulators on Monday granted full approval to Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine, a shot that’s already been given to tens of millions of Americans since its emergency authorization over a year ago.

US gives full approval to Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine

The action by the Food and Drug Administration means the agency has completed the same rigorous, time-consuming review of Moderna’s shot as dozens of other long-established vaccines.

www.waff.com

 

[StormStalker]

My dad tested positive today. He's vaxxed and boosted so hoping he has a little better go with it vs what my grandmother and mom has went through although their cases so far have been mild. (Mom vaxxed, grandmother no vaccine).

 

[Evan]

I'm really curious to see the death numbers that come in over the next 4-6 weeks. Many of the deaths reported in the past month, particularly up north, are still deaths related to Delta, because there was a pretty major Delta wave ongoing in IL/MI/NY/PA/OH/etc when Omicron showed up. It'll be interesting to compare deaths of areas that were thought to be almost exclusively Omicron (Florida) vs. areas that were in the midst of a Delta wave when Omicron took over (IL, PA, MI).

Also not sure that graph I posted with the Alabama deaths is worth much, as they've already changed some of the previous days values on the metric that isn't supposed to change. No surprise there though.

Using just Illinois as an example, they peaked in Delta deaths around September 20th as their date rate fell from around 44 per capita on that date to a low of 19 by November 29th. A number of Omicron positive cases have shown up as having occurred in the United States in the time period of November 15th - November 30th.

We know that Omicron was circulating in the vast majority of areas by the last half of November to early December. Regardless, Illinois's per capita death rate presumably peaked on January 26th at around 154 per day. Significantly higher than their Delta wave and only comparable to December 2020 and January 2021 when the death rate peaked at 174 per capita.

Point is, what's happening is what I believe was expected. The sheer number of Omicron cases is finding enough unvaccinated or susceptible individuals to cause death counts to pile up even if Omicron is milder for almost everyone.

 

[Jacob]

Using just Illinois as an example, they peaked in Delta deaths around September 20th as their date rate fell from around 44 per capita on that date to a low of 19 by November 29th. A number of Omicron positive cases have shown up as having occurred in the United States in the time period of November 15th - November 30th.

We know that Omicron was circulating in the vast majority of areas by the last half of November to early December. Regardless, Illinois's per capita death rate presumably peaked on January 26th at around 154 per day. Significantly higher than their Delta wave and only comparable to December 2020 and January 2021 when the death rate peaked at 174 per capita.

Point is, what's happening is what I believe was expected. The sheer number of Omicron cases is finding enough unvaccinated or susceptible individuals to cause death counts to pile up even if Omicron is milder for almost everyone.

Illinois is actually a very interesting case and exactly what I was talking about. How many of those 154 per day by Jan 26th were Delta, and how many were Omicron? Illinois was in the midst of a winter Delta wave when Omicron showed up and ultimately took over. Illinois DPH samples showed Delta was still 95% of cases at Christmas, 70% by Jan 1, and 49% by Jan 8th. Based on the IDPH variant data, here's what I estimate were Delta cases in Illinois. I estimate that the Delta case peak was over 3x as high in Dec/Jan was it was in summer/fall. Assuming deaths followed a similar path, the majority of the deaths reported in January in Illionis were likely caused by Delta. I adjusted deaths assuming a 20 day lag, and it lines up quite well with Delta cases. This is where in 4-6 weeks I think it'll be very interesting to compare, in Illinois and other locations.

IDPH Variant Data - https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19/data/variants.html

Note: IDPH is a bit different than the CDC's variant proportions. Adjusting things back a week or two obviously changes percentages significantly. Moving the IDPH data back one week would still produce a delta peak over 2x as high as their summer wave.