The thing about those figures from Israel is that this year, they're achieving that drop with most of the COVID restrictions lifted. The whole point of the COVID restrictions was to keep cases down while the vaccine was developed and distributed. The fact that they're getting better numbers now with most of their schools and businesses fully reopened than they did last year when they had a lockdown in place shows that the vaccination campaign is working there, which is impressive since they're still only at ~56%.
The real question there is how much difference did the lockdowns make vs. lesser restrictions, and I know me and you have very different thoughts on that subject. For the sake of normalcy, I hope you are right that it is driven a lot by vaccines. We'll have a very clear picture about 2 months from today, both in Israel, and to a lesser extent the southern US.