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COVID-19 detected in United States

Jacob said:
A bit of a disingenuous quote, IMO. We were told hundreds of thousands (or more) people would die even if we did the restrictive policies, and it'd be Armageddon if we didn't. You can't claim that there will be 500k deaths even if you do A, then implement A, and when there are only 50k deaths, say A is the reason we had so few deaths. I think that's the beef that a lot of people are having.

I agree with the actions taken originally based on the information we had at the time. I think it's also ok to come back and admit fault, but nobody in the government is going to do that part.
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don’t you know? USA shaming is the in thing now. Gets you online clout.
 
gangstonc said:
The model our government chose to use had that many deaths. Most other models that actually explained their reasoning have been much more accurate.

I think trusting what we are hearing from politicians that aren’t epidemiologists and medical doctors is just about the most dangerous thing We can do.
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Do you have a link to any of the other models? Genuine question, I've only seen models referenced by decision makers that have been terribly inaccurate (Imperial College model, IMHE model).
 
Jacob said:
Do you have a link to any of the other models? Genuine question, I've only seen models referenced by decision makers that have been terribly inaccurate (Imperial College model, IMHE model).
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I had found one that was tunable by the user. Let me see if I can find it again.
 
Jacob said:
Do you have a link to any of the other models? Genuine question, I've only seen models referenced by decision makers that have been terribly inaccurate (Imperial College model, IMHE model).
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No one wanted to listen to those at the time...

Many don’t want to listen to but the worst case scenarios now; second wave worse than the first and so forth. So many horror studies get widely circulated. All the studies in California that suggest we’re in pretty good shape get poo pooed. If most of Walmart and Publix and Costco employee’s aren’t sick by now then when are they going to be...
 
skelly said:
No one wanted to listen to those at the time...

Many don’t want to listen to but the worst case scenarios now; second wave worse than the first and so forth. So many horror studies get widely circulated. All the studies in California that suggest we’re in pretty good shape get poo pooed. If most of Walmart and Publix and Costco employee’s aren’t sick by now then when are they going to be...
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The second wave will be worse because we will have a full on flu season to go with it. And we’ll still have ONLY 30-40% of the population who will get the influenza vaccine which doesn’t achieve herd immunity (>70% of population). If we do have in person schooling and workplaces, it needs to be mandatory to have the influenza shot otherwise attendance of school and work will not be allowed until inoculation is performed.
 
skelly said:
The flu vaccine!
People get the flu vaccine and still get the flu...
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Because there’s like 7 strains and herd immunity isn’t achieved. A vaccine is much less effective when only 35% get it than 80%. It’s quite a conundrum because people scoff at the flu vaccine because it isn’t as effective as they desire. But a large reason why it isn’t as effective as they desire is because we don’t have herd immunity...due to people not getting it!
 
Kory said:
Because there’s like 7 strains and herd immunity isn’t achieved. A vaccine is much less effective when only 35% get it than 80%. It’s quite a conundrum because people scoff at the flu vaccine because it isn’t as effective as they desire. But a large reason why it isn’t as effective as they desire is because we don’t have herd immunity...due to people not getting it!
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I don’t follow you at all. My son got the flu this year and he gets flu vaccine every year. How does giving %80 of people a vaccine for the wrong strain build up herd immunity?...
 
The best analogy to the flu vaccine and vaccines in general is imagine if you were in a passenger van with 7 other people and there’s a wreck. A vaccine is analogous to a seat belt. If 3/8 passengers have their seatbelt on, there are more projectiles to fly around within the van and cause trauma/death within the vehicle. If 7/8 or all 8/8 “wear their seatbelts” or get vaccinated, you have a much lower chance or close to 0% chance of having a flying projectile from within. Now, that seatbelt could fail or a projectile comes from outside within the car, etc. it isn’t 100%...nothing is.
 
skelly said:
I don’t follow you at all. My son got the flu this year and he gets flu vaccine every year. How does giving %80 of people a vaccine for the wrong strain build up herd immunity?...
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That is incorrect. The genetic sequence of the B-strain (the one that was missed in this years shot) is extremely close to the others that were in the shot, which offers immunity. But you can catch the flu for how many strains are in circulation. So it’s very possible you son could’ve gotten it 4 times if 4 strains were in circulation although he likely got immunity from the shot/having the other strain.

Officials looked at the genetic sequence of influenza B strains in a sample of 198 children in Louisiana, finding that nearly all the individuals were infected with a subgroup of influenza B that's not in this year's flu shot. (Specifically, the strain in circulation is known as influenza B/Victoria V1A.3 subgroup, while the strain in the flu shot is known as influenza B/Victoria V1A.1 subgroup.)

But that doesn't mean this year's vaccine is worthless; to the contrary, some data suggest that being vaccinated against one influenza B subgroup strain protects against other influenza B subgroup strains.
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www.livescience.com

This Year's Flu Shot Doesn't Match What's Circulating. Here's What That Means.

The strain in the vaccine may still be close enough to offer some protection.
www.livescience.com www.livescience.com
 
skelly said:
I follow your analogy I just can’t make it work in my mind with my sons vaccine I’m seeing 8 faulty seat belts...
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That’s because there aren’t 8 faulty seat belts. Read my latest post. Just because the vaccine didn’t make your son immune to the strain that was missed, evidence shows it still offers protection in other people. One person doesn’t equal a scathing failure of a vaccine administered to tens of millions.
 
There seems to be a little hope that the oral polio vaccine may have some effectiveness against Covid. It's still early, but the guy i saw talking about it last week said he had 10,000 doses ready to go for testing. It could potentially ease a second wave later on if it found to work. It would be used as a preventive and not a therapeutic.
 
skelly said:
Meanwhile, Sweden is claiming to be near the threshold of “herd immunity” already without going through “lockdown”, at least not to the extent of the rest of us...
www.cnbc.com

Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach 'herd immunity' in weeks

Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible when the coronavirus hit. Now, it says its strategy appears to be working.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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The “lockdown” was only supposed to be temporary and meant to be peeled back as hospitals began showing signs they weren’t overwhelmed. Older/immune compromised stay sheltered but the rest begin going back to normality in piecemeal fashion. It was never meant, in theory, to last months on months. It was to spread infection out over the population...not to eradicate it.

The “curve” is a basic lesson in calculus. The area underneath (population that is going to get it) is going to be the same whether it’s steep or broader or a damn near flatline.
 
Kory said:
The “lockdown” was only supposed to be temporary and meant to be peeled back as hospitals began showing signs they weren’t overwhelmed. Older/immune compromised stay sheltered but the rest begin going back to normality in piecemeal fashion. It was never meant, in theory, to last months on months. It was to spread infection out over the population...not to eradicate it.

The “curve” is a basic lesson in calculus. The area underneath (population that is going to get it) is going to be the same whether it’s steep or broader or a damn near flatline.
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I hear you. That’s what drives me nuts about all the unreasonable critical resistance to the start of the peel backs.
 
So, somebody tell me if that's sounds tin-foil hat like of me, or perhaps semi-sane. Here's a story in NY about 2 house cats testing positive to COVID-19, and then there was also the two tigers recently that tested positive.

wvva.com

2 pet cats test positive for COVID-19

(Washington, D.C.) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) announced Wednesday the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in two pet cats. This marks the first time COVID-19...
wvva.com wvva.com

I've mentioned a couple times that I got the worst cough and "odd cold" that I've ever had early February after returning home from Los Angeles. My wife got sick a week or two after I was showing symptoms, though hers presented a bit differently. We thought she had the flu, though her flu test wasn't positive. The week she was sick we sent my daughter to my parents, and I worked from home and took care of her (she was 8 months pregnant at the time), though I tried to stay isolated from her to not get the flu as well. How this relates to the link above is, I have two dogs, and they basically spent that entire week in the bedroom with her. Both dogs developed a cough/reverse sneeze that week, as well as sneezing every time they got the least bit excited. They both showed those symptoms for about a week before getting back to normal.

I just chalked all of it up to coincidence at the time, as I know very rarely can humans and pets infect each other with stuff like this, but as more stories come out about animals getting infected too, it makes me wonder.
 
Jacob said:
So, somebody tell me if that's sounds tin-foil hat like of me, or perhaps semi-sane. Here's a story in NY about 2 house cats testing positive to COVID-19, and then there was also the two tigers recently that tested positive.

wvva.com

2 pet cats test positive for COVID-19

(Washington, D.C.) - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) announced Wednesday the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in two pet cats. This marks the first time COVID-19...
wvva.com wvva.com

I've mentioned a couple times that I got the worst cough and "odd cold" that I've ever had early February after returning home from Los Angeles. My wife got sick a week or two after I was showing symptoms, though hers presented a bit differently. We thought she had the flu, though her flu test wasn't positive. The week she was sick we sent my daughter to my parents, and I worked from home and took care of her (she was 8 months pregnant at the time), though I tried to stay isolated from her to not get the flu as well. How this relates to the link above is, I have two dogs, and they basically spent that entire week in the bedroom with her. Both dogs developed a cough/reverse sneeze that week, as well as sneezing every time they got the least bit excited. They both showed those symptoms for about a week before getting back to normal.

I just chalked all of it up to coincidence at the time, as I know very rarely can humans and pets infect each other with stuff like this, but as more stories come out about animals getting infected too, it makes me wonder.
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It’s not farfetched. I already read accounts where it was theorized that the virus came to California well before the end of the year.
 
skelly said:
It’s not farfetched. I already read accounts where it was theorized that the virus came to California well before the end of the year.
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I meant more that my dogs getting sick with it was more evidence that perhaps it already went through my house. There had already been a confirmed case in LA when I was out there, so the timing part could certainly fit that I bought it back here.
 
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