skelly
Member
I’m trying to see a light at the end of the tunnel. There’s a lot of negative to that on the news tonight...
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COVID-19 detected in United States
- Thread starter WesL
- Start date
Kory
Member
I've seen the opposite. 11 different vaccine trials are in their second stages already which is ahead of schedule.
Brice
Member
In case y'all haven't heard: China made COVID-19 in a Wuhan laboratory, they wanted to prove that to the U.S. that China can handle a virus. The first patient to have it was a female doctor who later gave to her boyfriend. It spread into a Wuhan market where multiple people got infected with it. It later got out control and started spreading unconditionally.
- Moderator
- #404
I've been watching the Madison County daily briefings and things are holding pretty steady across Madison County and North Alabama. So far, Dr Spillers of Huntsville Hospital has been very pleased with the progression of the virus through the area. He also noted that now is not the time to let up. One large gathering could cause a spike in the numbers. He did mention Marshall County has been a hotspot. They are closely monitoring it. Overall, he seems upbeat and the Hospitals are no where near being overwhelmed and hopefully we can keep it that way. I do worry that when things reopen and people start taking trips or vacations that the virus could be brought into the area causing outbreaks. Especially along the coast.
- Moderator
- #405
I have to say I haven't kept up with the novel Coronavirus stats very much the past couple weeks but at last glance it seems quite remarkable.
671,151 laboratory confirmed cases.
33,268 deaths.
And that's just in the United States where we've had widely available tests for a couple months.
I couldn't imagine what we'd be looking at if everyone shrugged this off or the world was oblivious to the threat.
671,151 laboratory confirmed cases.
33,268 deaths.
And that's just in the United States where we've had widely available tests for a couple months.
I couldn't imagine what we'd be looking at if everyone shrugged this off or the world was oblivious to the threat.
Kory
Member
I need it back .
www.al.com
20 Tuscaloosa things we can't wait to get back to
Taco Casa? The Quad? The Amphitheater? We want it all.
www.al.com
skelly
Member
I’m cautiously optimistic. They’re already, well have been, putting that second wave caviat out there and still want to talk about months of going through these measures. I don’t really trust anybody’s numbers at this point. Not China’s, not ours...Could be worse or better than reported depending on the goals of the subject.
It's the number of people that had it and didn't get tested, and the number of asymptomatic people that had it and never were sick that will determine had bad/if there will be a second wave.
skelly
Member
Yes. They need to get out on each state and do statistically sound sampling to get a good picture. They don’t have to test everybody just get good sound sampling.
This study came out today from Santa Clara County, CA. Suggests prevalence of disease is 50-85x higher than confirmed cases.
COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California
Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara...
www.medrxiv.org
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We've got OSU here in Corvallis; looks like someone with a test kit might come knocking. A good idea! Anybody aware of similar programs where they are?
skelly
Member
That’s what I want to see done in every county in the country. Really should of been done already.This study came out today from Santa Clara County, CA. Suggests prevalence of disease is 50-85x higher than confirmed cases.
COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California
Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara...
- Moderator
- #413
We have some breaking news in Alabama regarding the coronavirus. An outside entity had reported positive cases when they were actually negative. So, the ADPH will have to go through and sort all of this out. We should see a downward revision of the numbers but it may take a few days to get all of the corrections in.
Just read news of a plan for staging clinical trials and vaccine development.
A couple more studies have come out with similar results. Looking more like it is similar to a bad flu as far as mortality is concerned, as opposed to the 1-4% figures that have been widely accepted.
Looks like the biggest threat from the disease is the ease at which it can spread, moreso than the lethality of it. (in a relative sense)
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gangstonc
Member
Yes. The spreading and number of hospitalizations have the ability to cripple us.
Given the much lower mortality rates (especially in the younger population) that are occuring vs. what we thought were occuring a few weeks ago, we should be able to start opening things back up pretty quickly with some moderate precautions. Moderate social distancing should take place, and large gatherings should be discouraged/not allowed for now, but most people should be able to get back to a mostly normal life without the threat of the system getting overwhelmed. (save a few hot spots like NYC. Hard to think it's anything other than the population density and subway system that caused the extent of the outbreak there)
It's becoming pretty obvious that the warmer temperatures and higher sun angle will help quite a bit as well.
A bit of a disingenuous quote, IMO. We were told hundreds of thousands (or more) people would die even if we did the restrictive policies, and it'd be Armageddon if we didn't. You can't claim that there will be 500k deaths even if you do A, then implement A, and when there are only 50k deaths, say A is the reason we had so few deaths. I think that's the beef that a lot of people are having.
I agree with the actions taken originally based on the information we had at the time. I think it's also ok to come back and admit fault, but nobody in the government is going to do that part.
gangstonc
Member
The model our government chose to use had that many deaths. Most other models that actually explained their reasoning have been much more accurate.
I think trusting what we are hearing from politicians that aren’t epidemiologists and medical doctors is just about the most dangerous thing We can do.
